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日本不再衰退——亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)提振有望

日本不再衰退——亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)提振有望

《財(cái)富》 2016-01-15
雖然中國經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩影響了日本的出口,工資增長也緩慢,但作為全球第三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體,日本并沒有一蹶不振。

初步數(shù)據(jù)稱日本出現(xiàn)了五年來的第四次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,但最近公布的調(diào)整后數(shù)字完全打消了這種擔(dān)心。其實(shí)不用看調(diào)整后的數(shù)字也能知道,日本經(jīng)濟(jì)不太可能出現(xiàn)滑坡了,因?yàn)榫蜆I(yè)率很高,酒店生意紅火,商場(chǎng)超市的消費(fèi)都很旺盛。

初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示,2015年第二季度出現(xiàn)滑坡后,日本經(jīng)濟(jì)在第三季度再次下降0.8%,而通常來說衰退的定義就是連續(xù)兩個(gè)季度出現(xiàn)負(fù)增長。不過,最終數(shù)據(jù)表明,三季度日本經(jīng)濟(jì)不僅并未下降,反而增長了1%。

雖然中國經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩影響了日本的出口,工資增長也緩慢,但作為全球第三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體,日本并沒有一蹶不振。

首先,就業(yè)市場(chǎng)相當(dāng)景氣,失業(yè)率只有3.1%,處于20年來的低點(diǎn)。

酒店入住率也很高。豐田總部所在地、日本中部城市名古屋近期的酒店平均入住率為90%。

名古屋商工會(huì)議所副會(huì)長內(nèi)藤弘康說:“每當(dāng)有大型會(huì)議召開,酒店就會(huì)預(yù)訂一空。近來不少高層建筑紛紛投入建設(shè),其中都有酒店建設(shè)規(guī)劃?!?/p>

“建筑工人、保安和卡車司機(jī)都不夠用。一些相關(guān)行業(yè)的工資正在上升?!?/p>

從目前情況來看,兼職人員在就業(yè)和薪酬兩方面均受益最多。2013年4月日本央行推出大規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激措施以來,兼職人員的工資已經(jīng)上升了3.8%。

這帶動(dòng)了居民收入穩(wěn)步增長,進(jìn)而促進(jìn)了消費(fèi)。

10月份,由于消費(fèi)者對(duì)首飾和奢侈品的需求旺盛,日本百貨店銷售額連續(xù)第四個(gè)月上升。伊勢(shì)丹三越控股等百貨商場(chǎng)因此上調(diào)了截至2016年3月份的財(cái)年業(yè)績預(yù)期。

截至10月,本財(cái)年日本整體零售額同比上升1.8%,超市銷售額連續(xù)第七個(gè)月實(shí)現(xiàn)增長。

在東京商業(yè)區(qū),一位衣著入時(shí)、正在等朋友吃飯的女士說:“我覺得經(jīng)濟(jì)正在變好。經(jīng)濟(jì)好的時(shí)候我往往會(huì)更敢花錢?!?/p>

而且,感受到經(jīng)濟(jì)好轉(zhuǎn)的不僅是大城市。在日本西部城市廣島,中型超市泉屋百貨就沒感受到經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的寒意。

該公司發(fā)言人后藤郁夫說:“高檔產(chǎn)品很暢銷,比如我們貨架上擺的頂級(jí)‘和牛肉’。”

資本支出同樣顯示出活力。日本政府的調(diào)查顯示,2015年第三季度投資增速達(dá)到了八年多以來的最高點(diǎn)。

實(shí)際上,三季度調(diào)整后經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)之所以“變臉”,從初步估算的下降1.3%變?yōu)樯仙?.6%,很大程度上都是因?yàn)橘Y本支出。

盡管擔(dān)心中國需求可能疲軟,但在路透社的采訪中,80%的公司都表示下半財(cái)年的開支計(jì)劃不會(huì)變。

一些分析師指出,日本的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期變短了,原因是公司隨著需求的波動(dòng)調(diào)整庫存的速度變快了,也就是說,經(jīng)濟(jì)趨向更頻繁出現(xiàn)滑坡,但下跌幅度相當(dāng)小,持續(xù)時(shí)間也很短。

第一生命研究所首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家熊野英生因此認(rèn)為,政府應(yīng)該把眼光放得更長遠(yuǎn)一些,而不是疲于應(yīng)付短期波動(dòng)。

他說:“政府真正應(yīng)該做的是采取措施來提高日本的增長潛力?!?/p>

不過,日本勞動(dòng)力人口不斷下降的長期結(jié)構(gòu)性問題還是沒法迅速解決。

一些日本公司已經(jīng)開始未雨綢繆,不再把所有的雞蛋都放在日本本土這個(gè)籃子里,其中就包括制造日本傳統(tǒng)毛筆和刷子的白鳳堂。

白鳳堂社長高本和男表示,目前其產(chǎn)品在日本非常熱銷,但今年5月份開工新工廠時(shí),公司已經(jīng)展望得更遠(yuǎn)。

他說:“新工廠主要是為了提升產(chǎn)量以滿足國外的需求……來自亞洲其他地區(qū)以及中東的需求都有望增長?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Charlie

審校:夏林

Even before Tuesday’s revised figures banished what preliminary data said was Japan’s fourth recession in five years, it was an unlikely downturn, complete with high employment, heaving hotels and tinkling cash tills.

After the economy shrank in the second quarter, preliminary figures for a 0.8% contraction in the third quarter fitted the definition of a recession—two consecutive quarters of negative growth—but final figures for the July-September period put the economy back on the front foot with growth of 1%.

Though exports have taken a hit from China’s slowdown, and wage growth is lackluster, the world’s third-largest economy hadn’t been behaving like it was on the ropes.

The labor market is near full employment, with just 3.1% out of work, the lowest level in two decades.

Hotel occupancy rates are also high. They recently averaged 90% in Nagoya, the central Japanese city that carmaker Toyota calls home.

“When there’s a big conference, hotel rooms become fully booked. We’re seeing a construction rush of high-rise buildings with plans to build some new hotels,” said Hiroyasu Naito, deputy chairman of Nagoya’s chamber of commerce.

“There’s a shortage of construction workers, security guards and truck drivers. In some sectors, we’re seeing wages rise.”

For now at least, it is part-time workers who are seeing most of the benefit, both in hiring and pay. Part-time pay has jumped 3.8% since the Bank of Japan adopted a massive stimulus program in April 2013.

That is leading to a steady gain in household income, which is working its way into spending.

Department store sales rose for the fourth straight month in October on brisk demand for jewelry and luxury goods, helping operators like Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings revise up its earnings forecasts for the year to March 2016.

Overall retail sales rose 1.8% in the year to October, with supermarket sales up for the seventh straight month.

“I think the economy is getting better,” said a smartly dressed woman waiting for a dinner partner in Tokyo’s business district. “When the economy gets better, I tend to spend more.”

And it’s not just a big-city phenomenon.Izumi, a midsize supermarket operator in Hiroshima, western Japan, is also not feeling the pinch of recession.

“High-end products are selling well, such as the most premium ‘wagyu’ beef sold on our shelves,” said spokesman Ikuo Goto.

Capital expenditure is showing signs of life, too, with a government survey finding investment rose at the fastest pace in more than eight years in the third quarter.

Indeed, capital expenditure accounted for much of the swing in the revised third-quarter figures, flipping from a 1.3% preliminary drop to a 0.6% rise.

Despite concerns over soft Chinese demand, 80% of firms polled by Reuters said they were sticking to their spending plans for the second half of the fiscal year.

Some analysts say Japan’s economic cycle has become shorter as companies adjust inventory more quickly to fluctuations in demand, which means the economy tends to contract more frequently but the downturns are fairly shallow and short-lived.

So instead of responding to these short-term fluctuations, the government ought to take a longer view, says Hideo Kumano, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

“What the government really needs to do is to implement steps to strengthen Japan’s potential growth,” he said.

But there is no quick fix for the long-term structural problem of Japan’s dwindling working-age population.

So when companies like Hakuhodo, which produces brushes for traditional Japanese calligraphy and for make-up, think ahead, they aren’t putting all their eggs in the Japanese basket.

For now, Hakuhodo’s general manager Ko Takamoto says domestic sales are very strong, but the company has wider horizons for the plant it opened in May.

“Our new plant is aimed at boosting production to meet overseas demand…We see growth prospects in Asia and the Middle East,” he said.

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