近一年來(lái)，視頻網(wǎng)站Netflix的股價(jià)一路飆升。原因顯而易見(jiàn)。這家流媒體視頻公司接連推出《杰茜卡·瓊斯》和《毒梟》等多部熱門(mén)美劇，正在顛覆傳統(tǒng)電視產(chǎn)業(yè)——許多所謂的“掐線族”已經(jīng)完全放棄了有線電視。

這是個(gè)好消息，但古語(yǔ)有云，“禍兮福之所倚，福兮禍之所伏”。而投資者最擔(dān)心的，正是這些隱隱浮現(xiàn)的壞消息。

投資者為何要緊張？

Netflix的股價(jià)一度在短短幾個(gè)小時(shí)下挫5%以上。市場(chǎng)擔(dān)憂有二：第一，隨著Netflix的原創(chuàng)節(jié)目越來(lái)越多，其成本也將大幅攀升；第二，由于Netflix正在與各大新聞網(wǎng)絡(luò)爭(zhēng)奪電視節(jié)目轉(zhuǎn)播權(quán)等原因，其營(yíng)收也將面臨較大壓力。

這些隱憂在一定程度上是Netflix公司CEO泰德·薩蘭多斯在瑞銀集團(tuán)紐約媒體見(jiàn)面會(huì)上發(fā)表的一番言論所引發(fā)的。

首先，薩蘭多斯證實(shí)了此前關(guān)于Netflix計(jì)劃增加原創(chuàng)劇集數(shù)量的報(bào)道。目前看來(lái)，這家公司將推出大約比2015年計(jì)劃的數(shù)量超出一倍的原創(chuàng)節(jié)目。Netflix2015年原定制作的劇集只有16部，包括時(shí)下大熱的《女子監(jiān)獄》和《紙牌屋》。不過(guò)薩蘭多斯表示，公司計(jì)劃到2016年年底制作超過(guò)30部原創(chuàng)劇集。

這還沒(méi)完。據(jù)各大媒體對(duì)這次會(huì)議的報(bào)道，薩蘭多斯還表示，Netflix還打算制作10部電影、30部?jī)和瘎　?2部紀(jì)錄片和10檔喜劇節(jié)目。換句話說(shuō)，Neflix正在成為一個(gè)全陣容的影視網(wǎng)絡(luò)。

投資者還擔(dān)心，Netflix的核心業(yè)務(wù)正在經(jīng)歷一次徹底的演變或者說(shuō)改革。Netflix之所以能迅速崛起，獲得如今的江湖地位，正是因?yàn)樗缪萘艘粋€(gè)數(shù)字轉(zhuǎn)播平臺(tái)的角色——在網(wǎng)絡(luò)平臺(tái)上分銷各大電視臺(tái)制作的電視節(jié)目。當(dāng)然，相對(duì)Netflix的最初業(yè)務(wù)來(lái)說(shuō)，這本身也是一次重大轉(zhuǎn)變。這家公司最初是依靠出租流行電影DVD起家的。

這是一項(xiàng)成本相對(duì)較低的業(yè)務(wù)，因?yàn)镹etflix不必制作自己的原創(chuàng)內(nèi)容。然而現(xiàn)在，Netflix本質(zhì)上已經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)型為一家獨(dú)立的電視電影制作公司，只不過(guò)它制作的絕大多數(shù)影視作品是通過(guò)自己的網(wǎng)絡(luò)平臺(tái)傳播的。

這意味著Netflix的成本將顯著升高，因?yàn)殡娨晞〉闹谱鞒杀就哌_(dá)幾百萬(wàn)美元，電影的制作更是動(dòng)輒消耗幾千萬(wàn)甚至幾億美金。另外，人們對(duì)原創(chuàng)影視作品工作室和開(kāi)發(fā)商的估值，也迥異于Netflix這樣的數(shù)字傳播平臺(tái)。

盡管原創(chuàng)影視的制作成本很高，但是Netflix除了走原創(chuàng)這條路子，也沒(méi)有多少其他選擇。主流的廣播電視網(wǎng)絡(luò)越來(lái)越不愿意授權(quán)Netflix轉(zhuǎn)播他們的影視節(jié)目，因?yàn)樗麄円呀?jīng)意識(shí)到，Netflix正在利用他們自己的節(jié)目偷走他們的觀眾。

這也就解釋了為什么越來(lái)越多的電視臺(tái)表示，他們將不會(huì)把劇集授權(quán)給Netflix播放，或者將推遲授權(quán)的時(shí)間。有幾家電視臺(tái)甚至開(kāi)始提供自己的流媒體視頻服務(wù)，比如康卡斯特公司推出的Stream。

此外，他表示，簽訂美劇的全球轉(zhuǎn)播協(xié)議“并不順利”，部分原因是美國(guó)電視臺(tái)習(xí)慣于按特定國(guó)家和地區(qū)簽訂轉(zhuǎn)播協(xié)議，而不是簽訂全球性協(xié)議。但這也有可能是由于各大廣播電視臺(tái)覺(jué)得他們給予Netflix的已經(jīng)太多了。

盡管Netflix在網(wǎng)絡(luò)視頻和電影領(lǐng)域面對(duì)著亞馬遜工作室這樣強(qiáng)勁的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手，說(shuō)不定還要和蘋(píng)果電視正面抗衡，但Netflix的股價(jià)2015年依然強(qiáng)勢(shì)上漲了近40%。

毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，Netflix已經(jīng)憑借其內(nèi)容取得了巨大的成功，很多電視觀眾更青睞Netflix的服務(wù)，而不是有線電視。但與此同時(shí)，Netflix正在走上一條成本持續(xù)大幅上漲的道路，而且它與傳統(tǒng)電視網(wǎng)絡(luò)和潛在對(duì)手的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)也從未像今天這樣激烈。

Netflix的股價(jià)將繼續(xù)上漲多久？

Netflix已經(jīng)一次又一次挺過(guò)了唱衰的聲音，其股價(jià)仍然在高歌猛進(jìn)。但是，它能挺過(guò)潛在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的這輪襲擊嗎？

Netflix是怎么做到的？2014年一整年，各路專家都稱Netflix的股價(jià)被高估了，還有不少批評(píng)人士嘲笑了它的劇集質(zhì)量。與此同時(shí)，一些強(qiáng)有力的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手也正在構(gòu)建自己的流媒體視頻服務(wù)，試圖擠進(jìn)由Netflix獨(dú)霸的在線影視市場(chǎng)。

這樣說(shuō)來(lái)，Netflix的處境本應(yīng)非常艱難才對(duì)，然而它卻展現(xiàn)出了前所未有的大好勢(shì)頭，其股價(jià)上周達(dá)到了歷史最高的132美元。下圖展示了該公司9月份以來(lái)的股價(jià)走勢(shì)，大家好好感受一下。

Netflix’s stock price has soared over the past year, and it’s easy to see why. The streaming video company has several of the most popular shows around—including Jessica Jones and Narcos—and has disrupted the traditional television industry to the point where many “cord cutters” have given up cable altogether.

That’s the good news. But often when there’s a lot of good news, there’s also potential bad news lurking around the corner, and that’s what has some investors in Netflix NFLX -4.31% concerned.

Why Investors Are Getting Nervous

Recently, the two fears that sent Netflix shares tumbling more than 5% in a matter of hours were as follows: 1) That Netflix is going to see its costs dramatically increase, as it takes on more and more of its own original programming. And 2) That the company’s revenues might also be under pressure for a number of other reasons, including an ongoing battle with TV networks over licensing of their shows.

Those fears seem to have been triggered in part by comments that Ted Sarandos, Netflix’s chief content officer, made at a UBS media conference in New York.

For one thing, Sarandos expanded on previous reports that Netflix wants to add to the number of shows it produces. It now looks as though the company will almost double the number of original programs from what it put on its schedule this year. Instead of just 16 shows on the roster, including Orange Is The New Black and House of Cards, Netflix plans to have more than 30 of its own shows by the end of 2016, Sarandos said.

And that’s not all. According to several reports from the UBS conference, the Netflix executive said that the company is also working on 10 new feature films, 30 children’s shows, 12 documentaries, and 10 stand-up comedy specials. In other words, Netflix is becoming a full-fledged network.

Part of what investors are struggling with is that Netflix is undergoing a pretty fundamental evolution, or revolution, in what it does. The company rose to prominence as a digital distributor of TV programming produced by other companies—the major TV networks, etc. (which was in turn a pivot from its original business of renting DVD versions of popular movies).

That was a relatively low-cost business, since Netflix didn’t have to produce any of its own content. But now, the company is essentially becoming a standalone TV and motion picture studio, albeit one that distributes the majority of its product online.

That means dramatically higher costs, since TV shows can costs millions of dollars to develop and produce, and movies can cost tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars. Studios and developers of original programming also tend to be valued very differently from digital distribution channels like Netflix.

Despite the higher costs, however, Netflix doesn’t really have a choice when it comes to focusing on its own original content. Why? Because the major TV networks and broadcasters are becoming increasingly reluctant to license their shows to the company, in part because they have gradually realized that Netflix is stealing their customers—using their own content.

This explains why more and more networks are saying they will withhold shows from Netflix, or delay the period in which they license them. Severalare even trying their own Netflix-style streaming services, such as Stream from Comcast.

Then there was Sarandos’s second comment: The Netflix executive said signing global licensing deals for U.S. shows “has not been an easy road.” In part, that’s because U.S. networks are used to signing country-specific or regional licensing deals rather than global ones. But it’s also likely being driven by a growing concern on the part of broadcasters about how much they have given Netflix already.

Netflix shares have climbed by almost 40% so far this year, despite the appearance of some formidable competitors in the online video and movie market, including Amazon Studios AMZN -0.42% and potentially Apple TV AAPL -0.63% as well.

There’s no question that Netflix has been tremendously successful with its content, and a large segment of the TV-viewing public sees the service far more central to their lives than their cable subscription. But at the same time, the company is on a path that will see its costs continue to increase dramatically—and competition with existing TV networks and potential new players has never been more fierce.

How Long Can Netflix Keep Climbing?

Netflix has defied critics again and again, and it’s still riding high. But can it survive an onslaught of coming competitors?

How does Netflix do it? Over the course of the last year, analysts have claimed the company’s share price is over-valued, and critics have sneered at some of its shows. Meanwhile, powerful competitors are dialing up their streaming game in a bid to muscle in on Netflix’s TV and movie market.

By these accounts, Netflix NFLX -4.31% should be faltering. Instead the company is killing it like never before, as evidenced by a stock price pop that reached a new record high of $132 last week. To get a better idea of how Netflix is doing, here is a chart showing its stock since September:

在這一階段，科技股云集的納斯達(dá)克大盤(pán)只上浮了7%。Netflix高達(dá)40%的漲幅可謂相當(dāng)驚艷。

那么，Netflix的增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭又是從何而來(lái)呢？11月份有兩件事的確為它助力不少。其一，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場(chǎng)公司發(fā)布消息稱，半數(shù)以上的美國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)用戶都表示使用過(guò)Netflix觀看電影和電視。其二，著名分析師馬克·馬哈尼認(rèn)為Netflix的股價(jià)可沖擊140美元。

不過(guò)Netflix很快就要面臨激烈的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)了。另一家視頻網(wǎng)站Hulu 2015年9月已宣布，將推出一個(gè)免廣告的流媒體視頻平臺(tái)。更令Netflix擔(dān)心的，則是YouTube也宣布將斥巨資購(gòu)買電視和電影作品轉(zhuǎn)播權(quán)的消息。目前還不知道Netflix將如何應(yīng)對(duì)。與此同時(shí)，亞馬遜也加大了Prime視頻服務(wù)的廣告宣傳力度。Facebook也于2015年11月宣布，其日均視頻點(diǎn)擊量達(dá)到了80億次，看來(lái)Facebook遲早要推出一個(gè)專業(yè)的娛樂(lè)平臺(tái)。

隨著各大科技巨頭一齊進(jìn)軍流媒體視頻市場(chǎng)，各大影視制作公司已經(jīng)意識(shí)到有更多的買家看上了他們的影視節(jié)目，而對(duì)于Netflix來(lái)說(shuō)，這意味著視頻內(nèi)容的價(jià)格將不可避免地繼續(xù)攀升。Netflix已經(jīng)宣布將適度上調(diào)用戶的會(huì)員費(fèi)，不過(guò)目前還不清楚這能否抵消將來(lái)的內(nèi)容采購(gòu)成本。在這種情況下，Netflix一路飆升的股價(jià)（包括超過(guò)300倍的市盈率）可能很快就被證明是過(guò)于樂(lè)觀了。

另一方面，人們以前一度低估了Netflix。前CEO里德·哈斯廷斯曾放言，Netflix將成為HBO勢(shì)均力敵的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手，惹得時(shí)代華納公司的老板將Netflix嘲諷為“阿爾巴尼亞軍隊(duì)”，而Netflix此后生猛的發(fā)展勢(shì)頭也響亮地打了這位大老板的臉。

在原創(chuàng)內(nèi)容方面，雖然Netflix直到2012年才開(kāi)始制作自己的影視作品，但事實(shí)證明，Netflix有能力制作出《超膽俠》這樣的佳作，從而抵消了《馬克波羅》這種爛片帶來(lái)的不利影響。一系列熱門(mén)原創(chuàng)劇集，加上它在美國(guó)巨大的市場(chǎng)份額，意味著Netflix仍將是2015年最成功的美國(guó)流媒體視頻網(wǎng)站。至于這個(gè)地位能不能保持到2016年年底，則完全是另一回事了。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：樸成奎

審校：任文科

This is a remarkable rise of nearly 40% during a time when the tech-heavy NASDAQ index posted more modest gains of 7%.

So what’s the source of Netflix’s momentum? It’s hard to say. The company did get a nice boost in November when RBC Capital Markets reported that over half of American Internet users say they’ve used Netflix to watch movies and TV, and analyst Mark Mahoney predicted the stock could hit $140.

But it’s hard to see how this offsets the fact Netflix will soon face colossal competition, including from Hulu, which announced in September a new ad-freestreaming platform. And perhaps more frightening for Netflix, YouTube GOOG -0.46% said this month it will be opening its very big wallet to buy TV shows and movies too. Meanwhile, Amazon AMZN -0.42% has been upping its advertising game to promote its Prime video service. And finally, it feels like a matter of time before Facebook FB -0.54% , which in November boasted 8 billion video views a day, decides to offer a professional entertainment platform.

For Netflix, this means the price of precious content will climb as studios realize more buyers want to snap up their shows. The company has alreadyannounced a modest price increase, but it’s unclear if that will be enough to keep up with future content acquisitions costs. In this context, Netflix’s soaring share price (including its eye-watering price-to-earnings ratio of over 300) could soon prove optimistic.

On the other hand, people have underestimated Netflix before. The head of Time Warner TWX -0.35% once derided the company as the “Albanian army” only to watch Netflix CEO Reed Hastings make good on his promise to become a full-blown rival to HBO.

And when it comes to original content—which Netflix didn’t even have until 2012—the company keeps showing it can make good new shows like Daredevil that offset its hot messes like Marco Polo. The new hits, along with its huge U.S. marketshare, means Netflix will finish 2015 on top. Whether it will still be there at the end of next year is a whole other story.