不久以前，還有人會以為中國飛機制造商本可能在這周揭幕的新加坡航展上成為引人矚目的焦點，如同美國高中校友返校日的“皇后”巡視橄欖球校隊一樣大出風(fēng)頭。

六年前，中國商用飛機有限責(zé)任公司（下稱中國商飛）讓全球航空業(yè)體會到既期望又畏懼的感覺，最后剩下的是好奇。他們所有的復(fù)雜情緒歸結(jié)為一個問題：在緊湊的時間日程內(nèi)，這家中國國有企業(yè)能否生產(chǎn)出一架效率堪比波音和空客同類機型的飛機。2010年，中國商飛稱，兩年前開始研制的158座雙引擎窄體飛機準備于2014年首飛，2016年交付航空公司。

本周，中國商飛再次亮相新加坡航展。在這次展會上，波音、空客等各國航空企業(yè)都在討論，盡管經(jīng)濟下滑形勢嚴峻，中國航空業(yè)仍然迅猛發(fā)展。波音預(yù)計，未來二十年中國的航空公司將斥資近1萬億美元購買超過6300架新飛機，比三年前的預(yù)測多700架。這也是中國政府成立中國商飛的一大原因。

可惜，中國商飛早前的雄心壯志大多落空，一再推遲交貨也打消了競爭對手的好奇心。中國商飛的一些供應(yīng)商表示，按目前計劃，首飛至少要等到2016年年末，比原定計劃推遲了兩年，向航空公司交付的時間也推遲到2018年。但航空雜志Aviation Week報道，實際交貨時間很可能是2019年或者2020年。

波音787夢想飛機和空客A380超大型客機也曾備受延期交貨影響。波音787首批訂單的交貨時間較原定計劃推遲了三年。交貨延遲和成本超出預(yù)算都是現(xiàn)代航空業(yè)的特點。

可更令人擔(dān)心的是，中國商飛的C919一面世就可能遭遇滑鐵盧。

C919設(shè)計時的總重量就不比波音和空客的同等機型輕。Aviation Week報道稱，首架組裝的C919整機比預(yù)期還要重。C919的引擎由通用電氣與法國賽峰集團合資企業(yè)CFM制造。兩年前《財富》雜志在介紹中國商飛時提到，預(yù)計此引擎在競爭中占不了多少優(yōu)勢。

這意味著，有可能等到2020年交貨時，C919將面臨更殘酷的競爭，因為屆時波音與空客將推出旗下最暢銷機型波音737和空客a320的最新升級版。

現(xiàn)在中國商飛的客戶僅限于國內(nèi)航空公司，大多是國有企業(yè)，在采購飛機方面沒有多少選擇余地。但C919不但延遲出貨，燃油效率也不及預(yù)期，最后采購該機型的航空公司會陷入兩難。因為航空公司一方面希望通過支持國產(chǎn)飛機迎合政府，另一方面也希望運營真正有競爭力的飛機以提升利潤，也是為了滿足政府的期望。

因此，中國商飛會在新加坡避開鏡頭和人群，競爭對手的討論也會降溫，除非傳出比繼續(xù)延期交付更勁爆的消息。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者：Pessy

校對：夏林

There was a time not too long ago when a Chinese airplane manufacturer could capture the attention of this week’s Singapore Air Show like a homecoming queen strolling past the football team.

The aviation world’s hopes, fears, and ultimate curiosity six years ago rested with the question of whether China’s state-owned manufacturer, called the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China but known to insiders simply as Comac, would meet a brisk timeline for building a plane that could match the efficiency of similar Boeing BA 3.65% and Airbus EADSY 4.80% models. In 2010, Comac said the 158-seat narrow-body twin-engine plane it had announced only two years earlier would be ready for its first flight in 2014 and deliveries to airlines in 2016.

Comac is again attending the Singapore show this week where executives from Boeing, Airbus and other global players are talking about the colossal growth of air travel in China, economic slowdown be damned. Boeing says China’s carriers will spend nearly $1 trillion on more than 6,300 new planes over the next two decades. That’s 700 more than Boeing estimated just three years ago and a large reason why China’s government created Comac.

But Comac today is missing much of its earlier swagger and curiosity from competitors has given way to the realities of delays. Some of the plane’s suppliers say its first flight is now scheduled at least two years late, for the end of 2016. Comac has also delayed the delivery date to airlines to 2018 but Aviation Week reports the timeframe is closer to 2019 or 2020.

Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner and Airbus’s A380 superjumbo infamously suffered from delays too. The first airline received their Boeing order three years later than expected. Delays and cost overruns are a part of modern aviation.

But the bigger worry for Comac is that its plane, the C919, will be dead on arrival.

The C919’s total weight wasn’t planned to be lighter than comparable Boeings or Airbuses, and Aviation Week says the first assembled plane is heavier than forecast. The efficiency of the engines, produced by a GE GE 2.16% joint venture with France’s Safran SAFRY 3.68% called CFM, was not forecast to be better than the competition either, as Fortune wrote when it profiled Comac two years ago.

That means after the delayed delivery, maybe in 2020, the C919 will face even stiffer competition from Boeing and Airbus when they roll out new variants of their world’s best-selling planes in the 737 and a320.

Comac’s only customers for now are Chinese airlines, most state-owned, who don’t have much choice in the matter. But a delayed C919 with worse-than-expected fuel efficiency would create a dilemma for China carriers who want to appease the government with purchases but also fly competitive aircraft to earn the highest profit to, again, appease the government.

So Comac is staying away from the cameras and crowds in Singapore, and competitors are talking less about it, until it has more exciting things to discuss than further delays.