春節(jié)過后，中國決策層共同向海內(nèi)外投資者傳遞了一條信息，那就是中國政府將為不斷放緩的經(jīng)濟(jì)提供支撐，保持人民幣匯率穩(wěn)定，同時確保就業(yè)處于穩(wěn)定態(tài)勢，即便是在產(chǎn)能過剩行業(yè)進(jìn)行調(diào)整的情況下。

拿出一連串的“定心丸”后，中國政治領(lǐng)域?qū)l(fā)生兩件大事，一是2月底將在上海召開G20財長會議，二是下個月召開的全國兩會將確立今后五年的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展規(guī)劃。

2015年夏天，中國股市暴跌，8月份人民幣又出人意料地貶值，這讓全球市場受到震動，并讓外界擔(dān)心中國這個世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體是否健康，以及中國政府是否有能力在應(yīng)對經(jīng)濟(jì)長期放緩的同時實(shí)施重大結(jié)構(gòu)性調(diào)整。

中國國家發(fā)改委發(fā)言人趙辰昕2月17日在北京對記者表示：“中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的基本面沒有發(fā)生變化。中國經(jīng)濟(jì)仍將保持中高速增長?！?/p>

趙辰昕說：“中國外匯儲備第一大國的地位沒有變，較大規(guī)模的貿(mào)易順差沒有變，人民幣國際化穩(wěn)步推進(jìn)的態(tài)勢也沒有變?！?/p>

不過，2015年中國GDP增速為6.9%，是25年來的最低水平。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家同時預(yù)計，盡管政府延長了已經(jīng)實(shí)施一年的促增長措施，今年中國經(jīng)濟(jì)將進(jìn)一步降溫。

光大證券首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家徐高在北京表示：“我們預(yù)計今年中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速為6.7-6.8%。硬著陸風(fēng)險不大。這種風(fēng)險可能來自不恰當(dāng)?shù)恼?。只要政策對路，硬著陸風(fēng)險就非常小?！?/p>

春節(jié)前，某地方發(fā)改委發(fā)布公告稱，國家發(fā)改委計劃為地方基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施項目安排4000億元人民幣（613億美元）資金。

國家發(fā)改委表示，1月份已批準(zhǔn)投資541億元人民幣，以便支持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。2015年發(fā)改委批準(zhǔn)的項目金額為2.52萬億元人民幣。

2月16日，中國人民銀行也出臺了支持工業(yè)企業(yè)的措施。

數(shù)據(jù)同時表明，1月份中國新增人民幣貸款達(dá)到了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的2.51萬億元，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過市場預(yù)期。這也表明中國仍維持著寬松的貨幣政策。

此外，商務(wù)部發(fā)言人也在表示，資本外逃風(fēng)險不大，而且人民幣沒有持續(xù)貶值的基礎(chǔ)。人民幣貶值正是今年初全球市場大幅下挫的原因之一。

不過，國際市場以及中國的主要貿(mào)易伙伴仍對中國的匯率政策感到擔(dān)心。

中國人民銀行曾在六個月內(nèi)給了投資者兩記重拳——該行分別在去年8月和今年初突然大幅下調(diào)人民幣兌美元匯率。隨后，為了穩(wěn)定人民幣，它又迅速而果斷地實(shí)施了干預(yù)。

2015年中國人民銀行動用的外匯儲備數(shù)量創(chuàng)下了歷史記錄。它通過賣出美元、買入人民幣來支撐人民幣匯率，并逼退了押寶人民幣將進(jìn)一步貶值的投機(jī)者。

G20財長和央行行長會議將于本月底在上海舉行，預(yù)計人民幣將成為會議的主要議題之一。

雖然中國政府的最新承諾可能緩解了外界對人民幣立即大幅貶值的擔(dān)憂，但大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和貨幣策略分析師都預(yù)計，在中國經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)企穩(wěn)跡象前，人民幣將繼續(xù)面臨壓力，資本也將繼續(xù)外流。

徐高指出：“春節(jié)過后，國務(wù)院和各部委都釋放出了積極信號。”

“就經(jīng)濟(jì)而言，政府提升投資規(guī)模的空間仍非常大。2016年是十三五（2016-2020年）開局之年，政府將確保今年經(jīng)濟(jì)增速至少達(dá)到6.5%?！?/p>

趙辰昕也表示，中國有能力也有信心保持穩(wěn)定的就業(yè)水平，不會受到政府化解煤炭和鋼鐵過剩產(chǎn)能以及處置“僵尸企業(yè)”的影響。

他說，中國政府將采取措施解決產(chǎn)能過剩問題，但也會努力減少下崗工人數(shù)量。

新華社上個月報道，中國打算削減1-1.5億噸鋼材產(chǎn)能，這可能造成40萬人失業(yè)。

雖然大多數(shù)私營機(jī)構(gòu)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家都說目前看來中國經(jīng)濟(jì)不存在急劇惡化的風(fēng)險，但他們也都堅持認(rèn)為，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)將緩慢地波浪式下行。

瑞銀駐香港特約首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家汪濤周一發(fā)表報告稱：“我們預(yù)計中國經(jīng)濟(jì)將繼續(xù)放緩，企業(yè)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債情況將惡化?！?/p>

“不過，我們認(rèn)為立即出現(xiàn)系統(tǒng)性金融危機(jī)的風(fēng)險非常小，原因是國內(nèi)儲蓄水平高，銀行流動性充足，政府廣泛參股銀行和眾多債權(quán)人，以及資本管制措施?！?財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者：Charlie

校對：詹妮

Chinese policymakers emerged from the Lunar New Year hiatus with one collective message for nervous investors at home and abroad - Beijing will put a floor under the slowing economy, keep its currency steady and ensure employment remains stable even as bloated industries undergo restructuring.

The string of assurances comes ahead of two high-profile political events for China: a meeting of G20 finance chiefs in Shanghai later this month and next month's annual gathering of China's legislature - where the next five-year economic development plan will be finalised.

A rout in Chinese stocks last summer and its unexpected devaluation of the yuan CNY=CFXS in August have rattled global markets, raising concerns about the health of the world's second-largest economy and Beijing's ability to steer it simultaneously through both a protracted slowdown and radical restructuring.

"China's economic fundamentals have not changed," Zhao Chenxin, a spokesman for the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the country's top economic planner, told reporters in Beijing on Wednesday. "The economy will maintain a medium- to high-rate growth."

"China's status as the world's largest holder of foreign exchange reserves has not changed, the large-scale trade surplus has not changed and the steady progress in the yuan internationalization has not changed," Zhao said.

Still, gross domestic product expanded 6.9 percent in 2015, the slowest in a quarter of a century, and economists see a further cooling this year even if the government expands its year-long stimulus campaign.

"We think growth could be 6.7-6.8 percent this year," said Xu Gao, chief economist of China Everbright Securities in Beijing.

"The risk of a hard landing is not big. The risk of a hard landing may come from improper government policies. If policies are right, the risk of a hard landing is very small."

The NDRC plans to allocate 400 billion yuan ($61.3 billion) to fund local governments' infrastructure projects, a local branch of the economic planner said in a statement before the long Lunar New Year break.

The economic planner said on Wednesday that it had okayed 54.1 billion yuan of investments in January - following approval of 2.52 trillion yuan worth of projects in 2015 - to help support growth.

The announcement followed measures announced by the central bank on Tuesday to support China's industries.

Data also showed banks doled out a record 2.51 trillion yuan of new loans in January, far more than markets had expected and suggesting Beijing is keeping monetary policy loose.

Separately, a spokesman for the commerce ministry on Wednesday downplayed the risk of capital flight, and said there is no basis for continued depreciation of the yuan, a scenario that has been one factor behind a massive sell-off in global markets early this year.

Still, global markets and China's major trading partners remain nervous about its foreign exchange policy.

The central bank has stunned investors twice in six months - in August and early this year - by allowing sudden, sharp drops in the value of the yuan against the U.S. dollar, only to intervene quickly and forcefully afterwards to steady it.

It burned through a record amount of foreign reserves in 2015 as it sold dollars and bought yuan to support the currency and deter speculators betting on further declines.

The yuan is expected to be among the key topics of discussion at the meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors from the Group of 20 economies in Shanghai at the end of this month.

While Beijing's latest assurances of stability may have tempered fears of an imminent and sharp devaluation, most economists and currency strategists expect the yuan will remain under pressure and capital outflows will continue until the economy shows some signs of leveling out.

"After the Lunar New Year, the cabinet and government ministries have all sent out positive signals," said Xu at China Everbright Securities.

"For the economy, there is still lots of room for the government to step up investment. 2016 is the first year of the 13th five-year plan (2016-2020) and the government will ensure growth of at least 6.5 percent this year."

NDRC's Zhao also said China has the ability and confidence to maintain stable employment levels, even as the government moves to curb overcapacity in the coal and steel sectors to squeeze out so-called "zombie firms".

The government will take steps to resolve factory overcapacity but will try to reduce the number of layoffs, he said.

China's plan to cut its steel production capacity by 100-150 million tonnes will lead to the loss of up to 400,000 jobs, the official Xinhua news agency reported last month.

And while most private economists agree the economy does not appear to be in danger of sharp deterioration at present, most are sticking to forecasts of a gradual and bumpy slowdown.

"We expect the economy to continue to slow and corporate balance sheets to worsen," Tao Wang, Hong Kong-based China economist at UBS, wrote in a report on Monday.

"However, we see the risk of an immediate systematic financial crisis as very small, due to high domestic saving and ample banking liquidity, extensive government ownership of banks and many debtors, and capital controls."