盡管霍尼韋爾對聯(lián)合技術(shù)的收購存在重大障礙，但作為航天和建材領(lǐng)域的對手，外界普遍認為此舉將為雙方的股東創(chuàng)造更多財富。的確，如果兩家公司能順利整合，而且霍尼韋爾首席執(zhí)行官高德威也是一位升級收購目標(biāo)的大師，那么，雙方合并而成的企業(yè)就有可能真的取得成功。

對霍尼韋爾來說，完成本次收購是一項巨大挑戰(zhàn)。上周五，聯(lián)合技術(shù)再次拒絕了霍尼韋爾的報價，理由是反壟斷因素會讓這樁交易直接告吹，或者監(jiān)管上的耽擱以及資產(chǎn)剝離會讓收購對聯(lián)合技術(shù)股東產(chǎn)生不利影響。

的確，如果仔細推敲霍尼韋爾的報價以及創(chuàng)造大量價值所需的業(yè)績提升，就會發(fā)現(xiàn)霍尼韋爾幾乎沒有犯錯的空間。這項收購?fù)耆凇皡f(xié)同效益”。但如果像聯(lián)合技術(shù)說的那樣，合并需要剝離大量資產(chǎn)，或者收購遲遲不能成行讓聯(lián)合技術(shù)陷入不穩(wěn)定狀態(tài)，又或者整合關(guān)閉工廠以及裁員的費用遠遠超過預(yù)期，兩家公司的股東看到的可能就不是一場勝利，而是災(zāi)難。

今年2月19日，高德威向聯(lián)合技術(shù)CEO賀國瑞遞交了11頁長的收購建議書?；裟犴f爾在上周五的新聞發(fā)布會上披露了其中的內(nèi)容。該公司的最新報價為108美元。按霍尼韋爾的當(dāng)前股價計算，其中包括42.63美元的現(xiàn)金和65.37美元的股票。提出收購的時間體現(xiàn)了霍尼韋爾的精明之處。

2015年4月，高德威和賀國瑞首次探討合并問題時，聯(lián)合技術(shù)的股價接近歷史最高點，市值幾乎達到1000億美元，比霍尼韋爾的市值高200億美元左右。

然而，兩家公司隨后的表現(xiàn)截然不同?；裟犴f爾在近期大盤深度下探的過程中安然無恙，股價沒有受到影響。與之相反，2015年4-9月份，聯(lián)合技術(shù)的股價下跌了26%，原因是業(yè)績未達到預(yù)期。這讓它的市值落在了霍尼韋爾后面。

聯(lián)合技術(shù)股價下跌，再加上霍尼韋爾的股價表現(xiàn)尤其堅挺，可能是促使高德威在2015年9月底正式提出收購的動力所在。今年2月高德威重返工作崗位時，霍尼韋爾的股價剛剛創(chuàng)下107美元的新高，聯(lián)合技術(shù)的股價則滑落至87美元；霍尼韋爾的市值達到了830億美元，聯(lián)合技術(shù)則為730億。

基于此，霍尼韋爾就有可能用數(shù)量遠少于以往的自身股票來換取價格受挫的聯(lián)合技術(shù)股份。簡而言之，聯(lián)合技術(shù)突然變得“便宜”了，高德威隨即出手。

但以這樣的價格收購聯(lián)合技術(shù)真的是一樁很棒的交易嗎？未必。2014年底，聯(lián)合技術(shù)把自己最薄弱的直升機制造業(yè)務(wù)，也就是西科斯基飛機公司轉(zhuǎn)讓給了洛克希德-馬丁，價格為90億美元?？紤]到油價暴跌讓西科斯基對大型石油公司的銷售一落千丈，此舉對聯(lián)合技術(shù)來說著實合算。但聯(lián)合技術(shù)的核心業(yè)務(wù)利潤，也因此從2014年的65億美元降至2015年的54億美元。按每股108美元或整體900億美元的報價計算，霍尼韋爾賦予聯(lián)合技術(shù)的市盈率已經(jīng)略高于16倍。

這對聯(lián)合技術(shù)的股東來說是筆好生意。如果沒什么重大變化，他們最終拿到的股份和現(xiàn)金將帶來22%的溢價?；裟犴f爾介紹的情況則表明，聯(lián)合技術(shù)得到的好處遠不止于此。收購?fù)瓿珊螅裟犴f爾的股權(quán)價值將達到1350億美元，聯(lián)合技術(shù)方面持股40%。高德威預(yù)計，霍尼韋爾的股價將從106美元飆升至150美元附近，從而使市值提升590億美元。其中，聯(lián)合技術(shù)將占據(jù)390億美元，溢價165億，另外還會因股價上漲而獲得220億美元收益，總回報率為43%。

霍尼韋爾方面同樣將收獲頗豐。該公司股東的回報率將達到40%，而且均為資本收益。

這聽上去很美。但高德威所說的這些真的能實現(xiàn)嗎？介紹此項收購時，霍尼韋爾將兩家公司的當(dāng)期利潤加在了一起，得到了106億美元的數(shù)字，然后又加上了35億的“稅前協(xié)同效益”?？鄢⒑投惪詈螅瑓f(xié)同效益的價值約為26億美元。也就是說，霍尼韋爾預(yù)計合并后企業(yè)的凈利潤將達到120億美元。按16倍的合理市盈率計算，霍尼韋爾預(yù)測的市值約為1940億美元。

如果預(yù)言成真，霍尼韋爾和聯(lián)合技術(shù)將分別獲得43%和40%的收益。然而，假設(shè)未能產(chǎn)生協(xié)同效益，合并后公司的利潤就只有94億美元，市值也只會達到1510億，而不是1940億。預(yù)期中的160億資本收益將化為泡影，再加上合并將耗時數(shù)年，原本出類拔萃的收益率將變得微不足道。

大家還要記住，了解雙方談判內(nèi)容的人士透露，聯(lián)合技術(shù)管理層認為自己的股票目前價值140美元左右。因此，如果霍尼韋爾像它宣稱的那樣相信這是一次絕佳的收購，它也許就得拿出更多的鈔票。

反壟斷審核可能需要兩年，在此期間聯(lián)合技術(shù)可能出現(xiàn)震蕩，從而影響到它的核心業(yè)務(wù)。舉例來說，市場研究機構(gòu)Cowen & Co預(yù)計，監(jiān)管部門可能要求合并后公司剝離航天業(yè)務(wù)，后者在總銷售額中的比重為8%-10%。這種規(guī)模的合并可能會出現(xiàn)大量問題，比這還要大或者還要復(fù)雜的合并則寥寥無幾。

兩家公司都是這個世界上最成功的行業(yè)典范，雙方的合并會成為歷時數(shù)年的持久戰(zhàn)。它最后也可能不了了之，但比這個還能引發(fā)遐想的事件確實屈指可數(shù)。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

校對：詹妮

Although Honeywell’s campaign to purchase United Technologies faces major hurdles, a union of the aerospace and building materials rivals is generally garnering praise as a deal that would enrich both companies’ shareholders. Indeed, if the integration goes smoothly—and Honeywell CEO Dave Cote is a master of upgrading businesses once he buys them—a new Honeywell-UTC could indeed prove a winner.

Honeywell faces a tough fight to get the deal done. On Friday, United Technologies utx , once again, rejected Honeywell’s bid arguing that the transaction would either be blocked outright for anti-trust reasons, or require regulatory delays and divestitures that would make the deal bad for UTC shareholders.

Indeed, a close look at what Honeywell hon is offering to pay, and the improvement in earnings needed to create lots of value, reveals that Honeywell has little margin for error. This deal is all about “synergies.” But If a merger requires big divestitures, or if its long-delayed closing traps UTC in limbo, as UTC suggest it would, or if the expense of combining and closing plants, and slimming the workforce, proves a lot bigger than expected, shareholders of both companies could witness not a triumph, but a smash-up.

Cote presented its offer to Hayes in an 11-page proposal at a February 19 meeting. Honeywell published the presentation in a press release on Friday. The new offer of $108 is divided between $42.63 in cash and $65.37 in stock, at Honeywell’s current price. The timing looks shrewd. When Cote and UTC’s CEO Greg Hayes first discussed a tie-up in April, UTC’s stock stood near a record, and its market cap reached almost $100 billion, about $20 billion higher than Honeywell’s. But then, the two companies’ fortunes sharply diverged. Honeywell weathered the recent big downturn in the general market with no damage to its shares. By contrast, UTC’s stock fell 26% from April to September following disappointing earnings. That decline pushed its market value below Honeywell’s.

The fall in UTC shares, especially compared to the resilience of his own stock, probably encouraged Cote to make a formal offer in late September. When he returned in February, Honeywell had just hit an all-time high of $107, and UTC shares were languishing at $87, giving Honeywell a market cap of $83 billion versus $73 billion for its target. Hence, Honeywell could now purchase UTC’s depressed stock with far fewer of its own shares. Put simply, UTC has suddenly gotten “cheap,” and Cote pounced.

But is buying UTC really a great deal at these prices? Not necessarily. In late 2014, UTC sold its weakest business, helicopter-maker Sikorsky, to Lockheed Martin for $9 billion. Given that the oil price collapse has pummeled Sikorsky sales to oil majors, it was a terrific deal for UTC. But it lowered core earnings from $6.5 billion in 2014 to $5.4 billion in 2015. So at its bid of $108, or $90 billion, Honeywell would be paying a price-to-earnings ratio of just over 16 for UTC.

That’s a good deal for UTC shareholders. They’d be receiving a 22% premium in stock and cash at the closing, if nothing much changes before then. But according to the presentation, it gets a lot better. At closing, Honeywell’s equity value would be $135 billion, with the UTC camp owning 40% of the stock. Cote is predicting that Honeywell’s shares will soar from $106 to almost $150, creating $59 billion in new market value. Of that number, the UTC crowd would receive $39 billion, a total of the $16.5 billion premium, plus an additional gain of $22 billion on gains in the stock, for a total return of 43%.

It would be pretty rich for the Honeywell folks as well. Its shareholders would collect a 40% return, all in capital gains.

Sounds great. But are the improvements Cote promises really achievable? In the presentation, Honeywell totals the current earnings of both companies; that number is $10.6 billion. It then adds $3.5 billion in “synergies before tax.” After deducting interest and taxes—the synergies are worth about $2.6 billion after tax—Honeywell forecasts that the combined companies should post $12 billion in net income. Applying a reasonable 16 multiple, Honeywell forecasts a market value of roughly $194 billion.

If Honeywell gets there, then the two camps will receive their 43% and 40% gains. But let’s say the synergies don’t happen. Then the combination earns just $9.4 billion, and the market cap becomes $151 billion, not $194 billion. All but $16 billion of the projected capital gains evaporate, and that’s over several years. Returns fade from excellent to puny.

Keep in mind that UTC management, according to people familiar with the discussions, think its shares are worth around $140 right now. So Honeywell may be forced to pay more if it believes the deal is as great as its presentation claims. The anti-trust review period could last two years, and that waiting period would leave UTC in limbo, potentially damaging its core businesses. Cowen & Co, for example, forecasts that the combination would be forced by regulators to divest aerospace businesses accounting for 8% to 10% of its total sales. A lot can go wrong in a merger this size, and few are bigger or more complicated.

This is a battle for the ages between two of the most successful industrial icons on the planets. It may not happen, but few spectacles have been more fascinating to behold.