Fitbit連續(xù)第三個(gè)季度達(dá)不到華爾街的預(yù)期和自己的指導(dǎo)目標(biāo)。同時(shí)，F(xiàn)itbit的股票也是連續(xù)第三次在盤后交易中出現(xiàn)下滑。

在公司公布其疲軟的財(cái)務(wù)展望之后，投資者讓這家健康手環(huán)制造商的股票暴跌了15%。

從表面上看，事態(tài)對(duì)于Fitbit來說似乎不算太糟糕，該公司在截至12月31日的季度銷售了820萬(wàn)個(gè)新手環(huán)。銷售額同比增長(zhǎng)了92%，達(dá)至7.116億美元。與此同時(shí)，利潤(rùn)上升了64%，至6,420萬(wàn)美元。

然而，這一表現(xiàn)并沒有打動(dòng)投資者。他們關(guān)注的是業(yè)績(jī)展望，后者顯示今年前三個(gè)月市場(chǎng)對(duì)該公司產(chǎn)品的需求將弱于預(yù)期。

Fitbit表示，公司將在第一季度不賠不賺，或每股收益達(dá)到2美分，而不是23美分。華爾街稱，營(yíng)收將在4.2-4.4億美元之間，而預(yù)期值為4.838億美元。

在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪時(shí)，F(xiàn)itbit首席執(zhí)行官詹姆士?帕克對(duì)華爾街的悲觀情緒不屑一顧。他表示，自己關(guān)注的是2016年全年，而不僅僅是第一季度。

“很明顯，我們還沒有向分析師提供任何指引”，帕克說道，并指責(zé)華爾街高估了公司第一季度的表現(xiàn)?！八麄兊臄?shù)字源于自己的模型，因此將與第一季度的實(shí)際業(yè)績(jī)出現(xiàn)差距?！?/p>

他還說：“對(duì)于我們來說，很多時(shí)候我們并不是按照季度來衡量業(yè)績(jī)。全年指引才是我們關(guān)注的重點(diǎn)，在指引中，我們認(rèn)為Blaze和Alta系列產(chǎn)品將獲得成功?！?/p>

Fitbit預(yù)計(jì)，今年的銷售額將在24-25億美元之間，較2015年增長(zhǎng)35%。

Fitbit寄希望于Blaze智能手表的大賣，公司曾在1月份展示過這款產(chǎn)品。但反響卻是喜憂參半，人們最不滿意的地方集中在設(shè)備應(yīng)用的缺乏，例如天氣，以及除了當(dāng)前支持的文本、日歷和呼叫記錄之外無(wú)法提供更多的提示。

競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手，例如蘋果手表，則能夠做到上述兩點(diǎn)。相比之下，F(xiàn)itbit的短板可能會(huì)削弱產(chǎn)品對(duì)客戶的吸引力。

在未來軟件升級(jí)的幫助下，帕克樂觀地認(rèn)為，Blaze將從一款擁有有限提示功能的基礎(chǔ)型智能手表升級(jí)為一款更全面的產(chǎn)品，而且將始終恪守公司的愿景——讓設(shè)備變得更加簡(jiǎn)單易用。帕克拒絕提供更為詳細(xì)的信息。

Fitbit Alta是一款計(jì)步和跟蹤睡眠的瘦身運(yùn)動(dòng)手環(huán)，價(jià)格129美元。該產(chǎn)品將于3月開始出貨。

帕克表示，對(duì)Alta和Blaze的預(yù)定已經(jīng)超出了公司內(nèi)部的預(yù)期。Blaze目前在亞馬遜100美元以上最暢銷智能手表排行榜中排名第二。起價(jià)349美元的蘋果手表則名列榜首位置。

此外，帕克承諾，F(xiàn)itbit將在今年晚些時(shí)候發(fā)布更多的新硬件產(chǎn)品，但他沒有對(duì)此進(jìn)行具體說明。

Fitbit收益聲明中較為醒目的一點(diǎn)便是其新用戶的保留率。2015年期間，F(xiàn)itbit斬獲了1,800萬(wàn)新注冊(cè)設(shè)備用戶（Fitbit對(duì)注冊(cè)設(shè)備用戶的定義是：安裝移動(dòng)應(yīng)用并將其中一個(gè)健康手環(huán)或其無(wú)線體重計(jì)與服務(wù)相連的用戶）。

在去年年底，上述新注冊(cè)用戶中仍有1300萬(wàn)人在使用Fitbit設(shè)備。換句話說，F(xiàn)itbit的保留率達(dá)到了72%；該公司表示，這一數(shù)字較前些年有所增長(zhǎng)，但帕克沒有對(duì)其進(jìn)行量化。

健康手環(huán)的保留率——不僅僅是Fitbit——一直都是一個(gè)讓制造商感到擔(dān)憂的數(shù)字。2014年的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查顯示，近1/3的可穿戴設(shè)備所有者在6個(gè)月后便不再使用該設(shè)備。如果這一報(bào)道是正確的，那么Fitbit在這一方面還處于領(lǐng)先地位，只是領(lǐng)先幅度并不大。

帕克稱，斬獲較高保留率的一個(gè)原因在于，F(xiàn)itbit大力增加了應(yīng)用中的社交互動(dòng)。Fitbit用戶在2015年底平均擁有7.5個(gè)朋友，而去年同期為4.9個(gè)。

帕克認(rèn)為，如果Fitbit用戶有越多的朋友和家人穿戴Fitbit設(shè)備，那么用戶繼續(xù)使用Fitbit產(chǎn)品的可能性就越大。就像與你最好的朋友共同購(gòu)買健身房會(huì)員卡一樣，F(xiàn)itbit只不過是數(shù)字版的健身卡罷了，兩者的目的都是為了相互督促。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：馮豐

校對(duì)：詹妮

For the third consecutive quarter, Fitbit beat Wall Street’s expectations and its own guidance. And for the third straight time, Fitbit’s shares took a beatingin after-hours trading.

Investors sent the fitness tracker maker’s stock FIT 0.66% tumbling over 15% after the company gave a weak financial outlook.

On the surface, things didn’t seem so bad for Fitbit, which sold 8.2 million new trackers in the quarter ending Dec. 31. Sales rose 92% to $711.6 million compared to the same period a year earlier. Meanwhile, profits rose 64% to $64.2 million.

Yet, investors weren’t impressed. They focused on the outlook, which suggested that demand for the company’s products would be weaker than expected over the first three months of the year.

Fitbit said it would break even or earn 2 cents per share in the first quarter instead of 23 cents. Revenue would be $420 million to $440 million versus an expected $483.8 million according to The Street.

In an interview with Fortune on Monday, Fitbit CEO James Park shrugged off Wall Street’s pessimism. He wanted to focus on full-year 2016, and not merely the first quarter.

“We obviously hadn’t given any guidance to analysts,” Park said, laying blame on Wall Street for over estimating his company’s first quarter performance. “They were creating the numbers with their own models, so there’s going to be some disconnect for Q1.

He continued: “For us, a lot of it is we’re not looking at it quarter to quarter. The key thing for us is the full year guidance and that reflects the success we feel we’re going to have with the Blaze and Alta.”

Fitbit predicted $2.4 billion to $2.5 billion in sales this year, or 35% more than in 2015.

Fitbit is banking on big sales of the $200 Blaze smartwatch, which it first showed off in January. But reactions were mixed, with the loudest complaints focused on the device’s lack of applications such as weather, and inability to provide more notifications than the currently supported text, calendar, and phone calls.

Competitors like the Apple Watch AAPL -0.23% can do both. Fitbit’s shortcoming, in comparison, could make it more difficult to attract customers.

With the help of future software upgrades, Park is optimistic the Blaze will evolve from a basic smartwatch with limited notifications to a more comprehensive product—all the while remaining true to the company’s vision of making the device as simple as possible to use. Park declined to provide further details.

Fitbit’s Alta, a slimmer activity tracker for counting steps and tracking sleep that costs $129, will begin shipping in March.

Park said preorders for both the Alta and Blaze have exceeded internal forecasts, with the Blaze currently sitting in the number two slot on Amazon’s best selling smartwatches over $100. The Apple Watch, which starts at $349, is at the top of the list.

Additionally, Park promised that Fitbit would release more new hardware products later this year, though he wouldn’t elaborate.

One data point that stuck out from Fitbit’s earnings announcement was its retention rate of new users. During 2015, Fitbit added 18 million new registered users of its devices. (Fitbit defines a registered device user as someone who’s installed the mobile application and connects one of its fitness trackers or its wireless scale to the service.)

At the end of the year, 13 million of those users were still using a Fitbit device. In other words, Fitbit has a 72% retention rate; a number that’s Fitbit said has increased when compared to prior years, though Park didn’t quantify it.

Retention rates for fitness trackers—not just Fitbit’s—has long been an area of concern. A 2014 study found nearly a third of wearable owners quit using the device within six months. Assuming the report was accurate, Fitbit is ahead of the curve, but not by much.

According to Park, one reason for the higher retention rate is due to the headway Fitbit has made on increasing social interaction within the app. Fitbit users had an average of 7.5 friends at the end of 2015 compared with 4.9 friends a year earlier.

Park’s philosophy is that the more Fitbit-wearing friends and family members a Fitbit user has, the more likely the user would continue using the product. Think of it as the digital equivalent of signing up for a gym membership with your best friend, in an effort to hold one another accountable.