Netflix的投資者也許會(huì)覺得自己的心情就像坐了過山車，跟觀看該公司新劇《杰西卡?瓊斯》的感覺差不多。

一年來，Netflix的股價(jià)上漲了65%；但2015年12月初至今，這只股票回落的幅度超過25%。這還不是全部。今年2月份觸底后，Netflix一度反彈17%；3月7日卻又幾乎下跌6%，股價(jià)已略低于96美元。到當(dāng)天中午時(shí)分，Netflix已成為標(biāo)普500指數(shù)中表現(xiàn)最差的個(gè)股。

Netflix劇烈震蕩的理由很充分，那就是它很難預(yù)測(cè)。該公司在股市中沒有真正的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手，因此很難進(jìn)行比較，它所在的行業(yè)也變化無常。分析師目前對(duì)它的估值介于每股85美元到155美元之間。一位分析師甚至相信，到2019年Netflix的價(jià)值可能達(dá)到每股200美元。難怪投資者會(huì)把它作為投機(jī)目標(biāo)。

上周，Netflix的投資者也迎來了一些好消息，或者說看上去是利好的消息。來自股票研究機(jī)構(gòu)MoffettNathanson的行業(yè)專家邁克爾?內(nèi)桑森稱，Netflix令2015年美國電視收視量出現(xiàn)了約一半的跌幅。據(jù)娛樂網(wǎng)站Variety.com報(bào)道，內(nèi)桑森在報(bào)告中預(yù)測(cè)，Netflix的流媒體收視量占美國電視收視量的比例將不斷上升，到2020年會(huì)達(dá)到14%左右。

問題在于，雖然Netflix爭(zhēng)取到了電視觀眾，但不看Netflix的也大有人在。內(nèi)桑森的報(bào)告稱，收視總量減少了3%。Variety.com的報(bào)道顯示，內(nèi)桑森在報(bào)告中寫道：“目前Netflix是電視行業(yè)的肉中刺，但未必會(huì)成為致命因素?！?/p>

Netflix在美國市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)很火。加拿大皇家銀行資本市場(chǎng)分析師馬克?馬哈尼的調(diào)查顯示，53%的受訪者目前都在用Netflix，超過了YouTube（46%）和亞馬遜（27%）。在線投資銀行FBR分析師巴頓?克羅基特在報(bào)告中指出：“如果美國市場(chǎng)接近飽和，用戶增速就有可能放緩。另一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是其他流媒體視頻點(diǎn)播服務(wù)商帶來的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，包括亞馬遜Prime和Hulu，后者也采用訂閱模式對(duì)外提供服務(wù)?！?/p>

樂觀者的依據(jù)是Netflix在美國以外的成長潛力，但這個(gè)因素已經(jīng)體現(xiàn)在了估值之中。舉例來說，克羅基特估算，該公司美國流媒體業(yè)務(wù)的價(jià)值約為每股25美元，比當(dāng)前股價(jià)的四分之一略高一些。剩下約72美元的價(jià)值來自國際業(yè)務(wù)，還有很小一部分來自DVD訂閱和原創(chuàng)業(yè)務(wù)。

但Netflix的海外發(fā)展之路可能困難重重。以日本為例，馬哈尼的調(diào)查表明，只有1%的日本受訪者使用Netflix的服務(wù)，而YouTube、Nico Nico和GYAO!三家視頻網(wǎng)站所占的比例分別為39%、18%和13%。實(shí)際上，就連谷歌的流媒體業(yè)務(wù)Google Play在日本的排名都高于Netflix。

這聽起來也許像個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)，但高達(dá)57%的日本受訪者都表示，他們“根本不可能”把錢花在流媒體內(nèi)容上，這個(gè)比例幾乎是美國的三倍。同時(shí)，只有6%的日本用戶表示不太可能停止使用Netflix的服務(wù)，在美國，這個(gè)數(shù)字則接近75%。

如果股價(jià)已經(jīng)體現(xiàn)出了這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，所有這些對(duì)投資者來說也許還好。但情況顯然不是這樣。就算把3月7日的跌幅考慮在內(nèi)，Netflix的2017年預(yù)測(cè)市盈率仍接近370倍。要讓估值顯得合理，該公司的利潤就得翻兩番。如果凈利潤未能大幅上升，投資者或許就會(huì)把Netflix拋諸腦后。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

校對(duì)：詹妮

Netflix investors may feel like they are on an emotional rollercoaster similar to watching the streaming cable service’s series Jessica Jones.

The stock is up 65% in the past year. But it’s off more than a quarter since early December. Hold on. It’s up 17% since its February lows, and today, shares are down almost 6% to just under $96, making it, as of mid-day, the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500.

Shares of Netflixare volatile for good reason: The company is hard to predict. It doesn’t have a true publicly traded competitor (so comparisons are difficult), and it’s in a business that is rapidly changing. Analysts estimate the stock is currently worth anywhere from $85 a share to $155. One analyst even believes it could reach $200 a share by 2019. Small wonder investors are along for the ride.

Last week Netflix investors got some good news, or so it seemed. Industry specialist Michael Nathanson of MoffettNathanson said that Netflix accounted for about half the overall drop in TV viewing in the U.S. in 2015. In the report, Nathanson predicted Netflix’s total streaming hours as a percentage of TV viewing will continue to rise to about 14% by 2020,according to a story in Variety.

The trouble is that while Netflix cut into American TV viewing, it wasn’t by a whole lot. Overall, viewing dropped 3%, the report says. “Currently, Netflix is a source of industry pain, but not necessarily a cause of industry death,” he wrote in the note, according to Variety.

Netflix has already flooded the U.S. market. According to a survey conducted by RBC Capital analyst Mark Mahaney, 53% of respondents now use Netflix, more than YouTube (46%) and Amazon (27%). “Slowing subscriber growth is possible if the U.S. market nears saturation,” said FBR analyst Barton Crockett in a note. “Another risk is competition from other streaming VOD providers, including Amazon Prime and Hulu, which also offer services with subscription-based models.”

Bulls point to Netflix’s growth potential outside of the U.S., but this opportunity is reflected in the stock’s valuation. For example, Crockett says the U.S. streaming service is worth about $25 a share, or a little more than a quarter of the company’s current stock prices. The remaining value, or roughly $72 a share, comes from the international business (another small bit comes from DVD subscriptions and Netflix’s original business).

But that growth abroad is fraught with potential pitfalls. In Japan, for example, only 1% of the respondents of Mahaney’s survey use the company’s services, compared to 39% for YouTube, 18% for Nico Nico, 13% for GYAO!. In fact, even Google Play, the search engine’s also-run streaming service, ranked higher than Netflix in Japan.

That might sound like an opportunity, but a whopping 57% of the respondents said they were “not at all likely” to pay for streaming content, almost three times as many as in the U.S. At the same time, just 6% said they were not likely to cancel, compared to nearly three-quarters of Netflix’s U.S. users.

All of this might be OK for investors if these risks were price into the company’s shares. But it doesn’t appear to be. Even after today’s drop the stock trades at a nearly 370 times next year’s earnings. Earnings are expected to quadruple next year, so that valuation may make sense. But if Netflix’s bottom line doesn’t soar, investors may tune the company out.