阿里巴巴創(chuàng)始人馬云新近收購(gòu)的《南華早報(bào)》最近刊登了一篇采訪稿，看好中國(guó)的馬云在其中就中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)侃侃而談。

對(duì)于中國(guó)GDP增長(zhǎng)率從本世紀(jì)初的兩位數(shù)降至7%以下，馬云認(rèn)為：“沒有理由指望規(guī)模這么大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體能永遠(yuǎn)保持這樣的增長(zhǎng)速度。對(duì)中國(guó)來說，一直以這樣的速度發(fā)展也不好。經(jīng)過了30多年的增長(zhǎng)，用幾年時(shí)間來進(jìn)行調(diào)整是合理的?！?/p>

盡管中國(guó)能否擺脫過去五年由債務(wù)驅(qū)動(dòng)的增長(zhǎng)模式，并且毫發(fā)無傷地完成轉(zhuǎn)型是目前經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)界最熱門的話題，但許多人都會(huì)同意馬云的看法。

龍洲經(jīng)訊聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人葛藝豪本周預(yù)計(jì)，中國(guó)既不會(huì)迅猛發(fā)展，也不會(huì)出現(xiàn)崩盤，今后10年中國(guó)將“徐徐下滑，會(huì)很像20世紀(jì)90年代的日本”。在這期間中國(guó)將逐步削減巨大的企業(yè)債務(wù)，去年后者的規(guī)模已經(jīng)是中國(guó)GDP的1.5倍以上（要知道，這還不包括同樣飛速增長(zhǎng)的地方政府債務(wù)）。

馬云在發(fā)表正面評(píng)論前首先委婉批評(píng)了政府，暗示GDP增速有人為因素。

“有些人說實(shí)際[增長(zhǎng)]數(shù)字可能只有5%。但就算只增長(zhǎng)5%，當(dāng)今世界也再?zèng)]有哪個(gè)同樣體量的經(jīng)濟(jì)體能達(dá)到這樣的增速?！?/p>

的確如此，被馬云當(dāng)做中國(guó)比較對(duì)象的實(shí)際上只有美國(guó)。和全球第三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體日本相比，中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模已經(jīng)是前者的兩倍以上。印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速最近超過了中國(guó)。去年第四季度，印度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)了7.3%，中國(guó)為6.8%，但印度經(jīng)濟(jì)總量依然只有中國(guó)的五分之一。

馬云說，中國(guó)的發(fā)展“還會(huì)讓大多數(shù)主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體再眼紅15-20年”。

他用近期的消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)來駁斥中國(guó)工業(yè)增速放慢的觀點(diǎn)：“傳統(tǒng)行業(yè)陷入困境，但我們也看到了國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)、服務(wù)業(yè)以及高科技行業(yè)的增長(zhǎng)，而且年輕人才正在涌向這些領(lǐng)域?！?/p>

馬云還說，中國(guó)脫離重工業(yè)會(huì)損失低技能就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)，而快遞業(yè)將有助于吸收一些低技能勞動(dòng)者。阿里巴巴支持快遞行業(yè)的力度很大，原因是據(jù)估計(jì)淘寶每個(gè)季度產(chǎn)生的包裹高達(dá)50億個(gè)。阿里巴巴支持的菜鳥物流曾預(yù)計(jì)，自身的年包裹遞送能力最快可在2021年達(dá)到1000億件。

馬云指出：“物流和快遞行業(yè)為低技能勞動(dòng)者創(chuàng)造了充足的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)。我們的增長(zhǎng)空間仍然很大?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

校對(duì)：詹妮

For a China bull, Alibaba’s founder Jack Ma spouted sensible arguments about its economy in an interview published today with his newly purchasedHong Kong newspaper, the South China Morning Post.

On China’s double-digit GDP growth rates of the 2000s slowing to below 7%: “There is no reason to expect that an economy of such size can maintain such a growth rate indefinitely, nor is it good for China to continue to grow at such speed,” Ma said.“After more than 30 years’ growth, spending a few years to adjust its course is reasonable.”

Many would agree, though whether China can adjust its course away from the debt-fueled growth of the past half-decade and come out unscathed is now the hot topic among economists. Arthur Kroebel of Gavekal Dragonomics predicted this week China is headed for neither boom nor bust but will spend the next decade in “genteel decline, much as Japan has since the 1990s” as it whittles down a corporate debt mountain that passed 150% of GDP last year (note that that doesn’t even include the equally dazzling rise in local government debt in the meantime).

Ma waded into some criticism of the government, suggesting the headline GDP figure is manufactured, before he spun it positively.

“Some say the actual [growth] number could be just 5%. But even with 5% growth, there is no other economy of such size growing at that speed in today’s world.”

While that’s true, he’s really only including the U.S. as competition. China’s economy is already more than double the size of the world’s third-largest, Japan. India’s growth has outpaced China’s recently, hitting 7.3% in the fourth quarter to China’s 6.8%, but India’s economy remains just a fifth the size of China’s.

China’s growth will be “enviable to most other major economies for another 15 to 20 years,” Ma said.

He painted the recent consumer data as a rebuttal to the country’s industrial slowdown. “The traditional industries are struggling, but we also see growth in domestic consumption, the services industry and the hi-tech sector, and young talents are flocking to these areas.”

He also said delivery–an industry heavily supported by Alibaba in as much as its marketplaces are responsible for as many as 5 billion packages a quarter, according to estimates—would help absorb some of the low-skill jobs being lost amid China’s shift away from heavy industry. Cainiao, the Alibaba-backed logistics shipping company, has saidit expects to have the capacity to deliver 100 billion shipments a year as soon as 2021.

“The logistics and delivery industries create plenty of jobs for low-skilled workers,” Ma said. “We still have a lot of room for growth.”