未來5年中，經(jīng)濟(jì)的放緩和消費(fèi)者不斷變化的心態(tài)將讓中國汽車銷售額的年增幅減半。

上述觀點(diǎn)來自于麥肯錫。就在中國頂級車展于今日在北京拉開帷幕之際，該公司發(fā)布了一則全方位的新調(diào)查，內(nèi)容是關(guān)于中國消費(fèi)者對汽車態(tài)度的轉(zhuǎn)變。

麥肯錫調(diào)查獲得的一個(gè)重要結(jié)論是：該公司預(yù)計(jì)，2020年之前，中國汽車銷售額年增幅將下滑至5%。而在2010-2015年間，中國的銷售年增幅則達(dá)到了驚人的12%，也正是在此期間，中國超越美國成為了全球最大的汽車市場。

麥肯錫稱，“不斷變化的消費(fèi)者態(tài)度和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)逆風(fēng)正在放慢中國汽車市場的增長步伐?！?/p>

中國經(jīng)濟(jì)遭遇逆風(fēng)是世人皆知的事情，但消費(fèi)者態(tài)度的變化則不盡然。60%的受調(diào)消費(fèi)者表示，在中國，擁有一輛車不再是身份的象征。然而，42%的受調(diào)對象表示，“考慮到較高的維護(hù)成本和惡化的交通擁堵”，買車的吸引力已經(jīng)下降。

37%的受調(diào)對象稱，買不買車并不重要，因?yàn)槠窜?、汽車租賃和汽車出租以及優(yōu)步和滴滴快車等熱門軟件已越來越普遍。到2030年，麥肯錫預(yù)計(jì)，上述形式的服務(wù)會讓汽車年銷售額下滑10%。（屆時(shí)，中國的汽車年銷售額可能至多達(dá)到4000萬美元。）

調(diào)查的另一項(xiàng)重要發(fā)現(xiàn)是：節(jié)儉和“購買二手車”這兩個(gè)并行理念終于被中國汽車市場所采納。

當(dāng)麥肯錫在2011年對豪華車買主進(jìn)行調(diào)查時(shí)，預(yù)算是購車的第四大考慮因素，而今年卻成為了第二大考慮因素，僅次于品牌。

同樣，二手車市場開始獲得關(guān)注，但5年前，這一市場幾乎不存在。2011年，僅18%的消費(fèi)者表示他們會考慮購買二手車，今年，這一數(shù)字躍升至47%。

Kelley Blue Book總裁史蒂夫?林德對《財(cái)富》雜志說，隨著二手車銷量的激增，去年，他的二手車估價(jià)公司在中國進(jìn)行了擴(kuò)張。在美國，二手車的市場規(guī)模是新車市場的三倍。中國的情況恰恰相反：新車銷量至少是二手車的四倍。林德表示，“我們看到，二手車市場在中國的增長非常迅速?！?/p>

麥肯錫調(diào)查另一項(xiàng)有趣的發(fā)現(xiàn)是，中國人對維護(hù)之外的汽車服務(wù)十分感興趣，這一點(diǎn)在其他主要汽車市場國家并不多見。67%的受調(diào)對象表示，他們希望獲得有關(guān)安全駕駛和在惡劣環(huán)境中避免損耗的建議。64%的受調(diào)對象對汽車問題的遠(yuǎn)程協(xié)助服務(wù)十分感興趣。

中國各大城市對這些服務(wù)的需求日趨明顯。新手司機(jī)和擁堵的馬路導(dǎo)致中國交通事故死亡率高于其他大國。世界衛(wèi)生機(jī)構(gòu)表示，中國每年因交通事故身亡的人數(shù)達(dá)到了26萬。交通事故傷亡是中國第三大死因，僅次于中風(fēng)和心臟病。其交通事故死亡率是美國的8倍。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：馮豐

校對：詹妮

Used sales meanwhile are set to explode over the next decade.

A slowing economy and changing consumer attitudes will cut the annual growth rate of vehicles sales in China in half over the next five years.

That according to McKinsey, which released an extensive new survey of Chinese consumers’ shifting attitudes towards cars as the country’s top auto show began today in Beijing.

The big number in McKinsey’s survey: the firm forecasts auto sales growth to slow to 5% annually through 2020, after vehicle sales rose a scorching 12% annually from 2010 to 2015 in China, during which the country passed the U.S. as the world’s largest car market.

“Changing consumer attitudes and macroeconomic headwinds are slowing growth in China’s vehicle market,” McKinsey said.

China’s economic headwinds are well documented. The changing consumer attitudes not as much. Sixty percent of consumers surveyed said owning a car was no longer a status symbol in China. Instead, 42% said owning a car is less appealing “due to high maintenance costs and worsening traffic congestion.”

Thirty seven percent said owning a car wasn’t as important because of the rise of ride-sharing, leasing, renting, and hailing apps like Uber and DidiKuaidi. By 2030, McKinsey predicts, these types of services could reduce annual vehicle sales by 10%. (By that time, China’s vehicle sales might top 40 million annually.)

The other big survey takeaway: the twin concepts of thrift and ‘buying used’ have finally entered the Chinese car lexicon.

When McKinsey surveyed premium car buyers in 2011, budget was the fourth biggest factor in buying a car; this year it moved up to second biggest factor, after brand.

Likewise, buying used is beginning to gain attention after almost no market existed even five years ago. In 2011, only 18% of consumers said they’d consider buying used; by 2016, the number jumped to 47%.

Steve Lind, president of Kelley Blue Book, told Fortune last year his used car valuation company is expanding in China as used sales multiply. In the U.S., the used car market is three times the size of new car market. The reverse is true in China: new car sales are at least four times the size of used sales. “We see the used car growing very quickly there,” Lind said.

The other interesting takeaway from the McKinsey survey is that more than any other major car market, the Chinese are interested in automotive services beyond maintenance. Sixty-seven percent say they want advice on driving safely and avoiding wear and tear in difficult conditions. Sixty-four percent are interested in remote assistance with vehicle problems.

The demand for these services becomes apparent in Chinese cities where novice drivers and clogged roads lead to higher rates of traffic fatalities than any other major country. The World Health Organization said 260,000 die each year on China’s roads. Road injuries are China’s third leading cause of death, behind stroke and heart disease. Its fatality rate is eight times the rate in the U.S.