蘋果公司周二公布第二季度業(yè)績后，許多投資者和分析師都在問，如果蘋果為提振不斷下滑的銷售額開始收購，會買下哪家公司呢？

在周二的業(yè)績發(fā)布會上，就連首席執(zhí)行官蒂姆?庫克都表示，蘋果在收購方面“非常積極”，對更大規(guī)模的收購持開放態(tài)度。到目前為止，蘋果最大筆收購是斥資30億美元買下從事耳機(jī)制造和提供音樂流服務(wù)的Beats。

投資銀行派杰公司董事總經(jīng)理吉恩?蒙斯特指出，蘋果可能會在三個關(guān)鍵領(lǐng)域收購，分別是汽車、虛擬現(xiàn)實以及混合現(xiàn)實。派杰公司維持蘋果的“超配”，也就是“買入”評級，并將其目標(biāo)股價定為104.35美元。

蒙斯特首先分析稱，蘋果收購特斯拉或者雙方合并的可能性非常小。今年2月，彭博曾報道稱，蘋果負(fù)責(zé)并購事務(wù)的主管和特斯拉CEO埃隆?穆斯克見了面，但未披露任何細(xì)節(jié)。

蒙斯特寫道：“如果收購特斯拉之類已有成熟品牌的公司，就沒法在汽車領(lǐng)域拓展蘋果的品牌。”他還說，蘋果更想設(shè)計汽車，對制造興趣不大，“我們認(rèn)為，正在研發(fā)無人駕駛汽車的公司可能更適合蘋果?！?/p>

據(jù)蒙斯特介紹，蘋果也可能在虛擬現(xiàn)實領(lǐng)域收購，而且有可能出手兼并技術(shù)團(tuán)隊和相關(guān)產(chǎn)品，“包括頭戴式混合現(xiàn)實顯示、光場技術(shù)，或者能把手勢等人類輸入方式整合到計算機(jī)之中的技術(shù)等。”

混合現(xiàn)實領(lǐng)域也有可能成為蘋果實現(xiàn)增長的關(guān)鍵，因為這種平臺“就是我們能想象到的未來屏幕”，目前微軟的Hololens全息眼鏡等已經(jīng)進(jìn)入該領(lǐng)域試水。蒙斯特此前也曾預(yù)測，大約15年或者更久之后蘋果會推出一款頭戴式混合現(xiàn)實產(chǎn)品取代iPhone。

但他認(rèn)為，有一個領(lǐng)域蘋果不太可能追隨另一巨頭亞馬遜的腳步，就是流媒體。

為了向消費(fèi)者提供品類齊全的內(nèi)容，蘋果更有可能跟內(nèi)容制作商合作，而不會收購電影公司。蒙斯特指出，“如果收購內(nèi)容制作商，蘋果跟不在旗下的內(nèi)容提供商之間就會發(fā)生沖突?！?/p>

但蒙斯特也寫道，為了進(jìn)一步增長而收購乍看起來有吸引力，但不太可能讓投資者滿意，至少中期內(nèi)，或者說今后1-2年內(nèi)不能投資者都不會高興。因為投資者迫切希望在一兩年內(nèi)看到成效。

蒙斯特稱：“投資者希望蘋果收購個公司，然后像吃了仙丹一樣中短期業(yè)績立刻大振，但在我們看來，問題在于能明顯推動蘋果今后1-2年增長的公司很可能都太大了，收購不了。雖然庫克在大規(guī)模收購方面留有余地，但我們認(rèn)為，值得蘋果收購的大公司寥寥無幾?！保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

Following Apple’s second quarter earnings yesterday, many investors and analysts were asking, if Apple does indeed enter an era of acquisitions in order to boost flagging sales—who will they buy?

After all, during the earnings call Tuesday, even CEO Tim Cook noted that the company was “very active” in the acquisition space, and he would be open to making acquisitions larger than the ones made so far. Apple largest acquisition to date was Beats for $3 billion.

So Piper Jaffray Managing Director Gene Munster noted the three key areas he sees Apple making acquisitions: The company’s automotive, virtual reality and mixed reality sectors. Piper Jaffray maintained an overweight rating on the stock, another way of saying buy, and set a price target of $104.35.

Munster started by saying that a potential Apple and Tesla merger or acquisition was highly unlikely. Back in February, Bloomberg reported that Apple’s acquisition chief and Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk met, though no details were leaked.

“We note that buying an established brand with significant brand equity like Tesla defeats the purpose of leveraging Apple’s brand on a car,” Munster wrote, adding that Apple wanted to design, not manufacture cars. “We believe companies developing autonomous vehicle capabilities could make sense for Apple.”

According to Munster, Apple is also likely to make acquisitions in the virtual reality space, and the company could gobble up “teams and products including head-mounted mixed reality displays, light-field technologies, and incorporating human input including hands into computers. ”

Mixed reality, a category that includes Microsoft’s Hololens, would also provide a key area of growth for Apple, since the platform is “the future of screens as we know them.” Munster has also previously predicted that Apple will release a mixed reality headsets to replace the cellphone in about 15 or more years.

But Munster noted one other area where Apple is unlikely to follow in the footsteps of its fellow giant, Amazon: Content streaming.

In order to offer its customers a full selection of content, Apple is more likely to form partnerships with content creators rather than acquire a studio. Munster noted that “if Apple were to acquire content creators, it would put it in conflict with those content owners that Apple did not own.”

But Munster also wrote that while acquisitions seem like an attractive option for further growth, the move is unlikely to please investors—at least not in the medium-term, or within the next one to two years. That’s because investors are thirsty for results within the next one or two years.

“Investors want Apple to buy companies as apanacea for growth in the near to medium term, but in our view the issue is that any companies that could meaningfully change Apple’s growth picture over the next one to two years are probably too large to acquire,” he wrote. “While Cook left the door open for larger deals, we believe there few large companies that make sense for Apple to buy.“