比特幣再掀狂潮。經(jīng)過(guò)一段漫長(zhǎng)的價(jià)格平臺(tái)期之后，世界上最著名的數(shù)字貨幣再次發(fā)力，迎來(lái)一輪暴漲。

上周二，比特幣的單價(jià)直沖550美元，超過(guò)了它在2014年8月創(chuàng)下的單價(jià)約533美元的紀(jì)錄。過(guò)去半年來(lái)，比特幣的價(jià)格基本上在350-450美元之間徘徊，眼下這輪上漲使這段為時(shí)6個(gè)月的平靜期宣告終結(jié)。

就在一年前的這個(gè)時(shí)候，比特幣的境況還是凄風(fēng)苦雨。2015年6月1日，只要花226美元就能買(mǎi)一個(gè)比特幣，如今可謂天壤之別。要想一窺暴漲的瘋狂程度，看看Coindesk網(wǎng)站的比特幣價(jià)格指數(shù)圖就知道了，該圖顯示了比特幣在過(guò)去一周的價(jià)格走勢(shì)。

Here we go again. After a long stretch in which the price of bitcoin held stable, the world’s most famous digital currency is on the move again—and this time it’s heading straight up.

On last Tuesday, bitcoin was nosing towards $550 per unit, which is even higher than August 2014, when bitcoin prices reached almost $533. The recent move also ends a six-month period of relative tranquility in which prices mostly hovered between $350 and $450.

It’s also a remarkable improvement from a year ago when the currency was in the gutter. On June 1, 2015, one could buy a bitcoin for $226. To get the flavor the recent uptick, here is a screenshot from Coindesk’s price index, showing prices in the last week:

那么，本輪暴漲背后玄機(jī)何在？關(guān)于這個(gè)問(wèn)題很難有一個(gè)確切的答案，因?yàn)楸忍貛诺哪翘走\(yùn)作原理對(duì)外行來(lái)說(shuō)是謎一樣的存在，而懂行的人對(duì)于拉高或砸低比特幣價(jià)格的時(shí)間通常早已運(yùn)籌帷幄。盡管如此，以下還是為當(dāng)前的價(jià)格瘋漲給出了三個(gè)原因。

原因一：比特幣挖礦的成本可能進(jìn)一步提高

比特幣從本質(zhì)上來(lái)說(shuō)是通縮的，這意味著隨著時(shí)間推移，比特幣產(chǎn)礦量會(huì)減少。關(guān)鍵是在不久的將來(lái)，比特幣挖礦的回報(bào)將從25比特幣降到12.5比特幣。

這次價(jià)格減半將發(fā)生在第42萬(wàn)區(qū)塊比特幣被挖出的時(shí)候，很可能未來(lái)幾周就會(huì)迎來(lái)這個(gè)時(shí)刻。我們尚不清楚市場(chǎng)價(jià)格屆時(shí)將受到怎樣的影響，但是幾則新聞報(bào)道稱，過(guò)去一周的價(jià)格暴漲可能部分來(lái)自于迫在眉睫的礦產(chǎn)供應(yīng)減少的壓力。

原因二：對(duì)新的電子貨幣的炒作重燃公眾對(duì)比特幣的興趣

不久前出現(xiàn)的以太坊（Ethereum）作為一種區(qū)塊鏈技術(shù)得到了銀行和風(fēng)投的大力支持，科技圈的達(dá)人們對(duì)它談?wù)摬簧?。?jiǎn)而言之，很多人認(rèn)為以太坊與比特幣相比更迅捷、更可靠，甚至可能作為一種更出色的電子貨幣取代比特幣。

競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的出現(xiàn)對(duì)比特幣來(lái)說(shuō)當(dāng)然是一個(gè)壞消息。然而Quartz網(wǎng)站上的一篇文章提出一種假設(shè)：以太坊價(jià)格上漲可能反過(guò)來(lái)會(huì)刺激比特幣的價(jià)格。但是到目前為止，沒(méi)有證據(jù)表明這兩種電子貨幣的價(jià)格之間有很強(qiáng)的關(guān)聯(lián)影響。

原因三：中國(guó)，中國(guó)，中國(guó)

中國(guó)因素似乎是比特幣價(jià)格暴漲背后最讓人信服的原因?！度A爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》載文說(shuō)：

目前，全球約92%的比特幣交易是在火幣網(wǎng)（Huobi.com）和OKCoin這兩個(gè)中國(guó)的比特幣交易平臺(tái)上完成的。上周末比特幣價(jià)格上漲也許只是一個(gè)最新的跡象，表明中國(guó)投資者在不同資產(chǎn)之間轉(zhuǎn)移資金，以謀求更高回報(bào)。

中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)左右著比特幣在過(guò)去的波動(dòng)，因此我們有理由認(rèn)為，本輪暴漲也與中國(guó)有關(guān)。

同時(shí)，內(nèi)行人士在Reddit和推特網(wǎng)站上的留言也提到了中國(guó)投資者效應(yīng)，而且他們認(rèn)為這種效應(yīng)可能不會(huì)持續(xù)太久。如果最后證明比特幣的買(mǎi)入狂潮只是資產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移到其它形式的一個(gè)過(guò)路小站，當(dāng)前的瘋狂局面就會(huì)結(jié)束：

So what’s behind the recent surge? It’s hard to say for certain since the workings of bitcoin are often inscrutable to outsiders, while those who are in the know typically have an agenda to push the price up or down. That said, here are three explanations for the current price jump.

Reason 1: Mining bitcoin is about to get more expensive

The nature of bitcoin is deflationary, however, meaning that fewer bitcoins are mined as time goes on. Critically, at some point in the near future, the reward for miners will drop from 25 bitcoins to 12.5 bitcoins.

It’s unclear how this price cut, which will take place when bitcoin block 420,000 is mined (probably in the coming weeks), will affect the price of in the market. But several news reports claim the recent surge in the price may be driven in part by the impending stress on the mining supply.

Reason 2: Hype over a new digital currency is reigniting interest in bitcoin

Tech types have been buzzing about the emergence of Ethereum, a new blockchain technology that is winning big support from banks and venture capitalists. In short, that is many think Ethereum is faster and more reliable than bitcoin, and could even supplant it as the pre-eminent digital currency.

The emergence of a rival currency might, of course, seem bad for bitcoin. A Quartz article asks, however, if a price surge for ethereum might instead serve to rub of on bitcoin. But so far, there is little evidence that the price of the two currencies is strongly correlated.

Reason 3: China, China, China

This seems the most convincing explanation for the bitcoin surge. According to the Wall Street Journal:

Huobi and OKCoin, two Chinese exchanges, now collectively account for some 92% of global trading in bitcoin. The surge in bitcoin buying last weekend could be the latest sign of how Chinese investors are moving money between asset classes quickly in search of high returns.

Goings-on in China have driven bitcoin volatility in the past, and it stands to reason that this is what’s going on again.

Meanwhile, comments on Reddit and Twitter from those in the know not only point to a Chinese investor effect, but also raise the possibility that the effect won’t last. This will occur if the bitcoin buying just turns out to be a way-station on the way to other assets:

（上圖劃紅線的那句翻譯如下：）

我去，比特幣就像全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的周末期貨市場(chǎng)一樣。這太瘋狂了。比特幣開(kāi)始整合了。

我擔(dān)心的是，比特幣的大量買(mǎi)進(jìn)只是資金從人民幣市場(chǎng)的短期退出罷了，不久之后這些錢(qián)將大量涌入美元或英鎊市場(chǎng)。

那么，當(dāng)前的暴漲是否釋放出一個(gè)信號(hào)，即虛擬貨幣終于開(kāi)始流行？還是說(shuō)，這只是比特幣那著名的價(jià)格波動(dòng)的又一個(gè)例子？貪婪的外行們蜂擁而入，為財(cái)而忙，而幾周或幾個(gè)月之后，當(dāng)價(jià)格再次一落千丈，他們是否終將玩火自焚？答案很快就會(huì)揭曉。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：珠珠

My concern is that big chunk of BTC buys is a short-term exit from CNY before dumping it for USD/GBP later.

6:44 PM - 30 May 2016

So is the current price surge a sign that virtual currency is catching on at last? Or is this just another example of bitcoin’s famous volatility in which greedy outsiders rush in to get rich, only to get burned when the price collapses again weeks or months later? We’ll see soon enough.