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超級(jí)大國(guó)的地位岌岌可危,但美國(guó)的政客們并不在乎

超級(jí)大國(guó)的地位岌岌可危,但美國(guó)的政客們并不在乎

艾倫?沃爾夫 2016-06-14
由于在海外事務(wù)上表現(xiàn)不佳,美國(guó)已經(jīng)破壞了自己的公共形象。政客們也不再以維持美國(guó)超級(jí)大國(guó)地位這樣的承諾來(lái)吸引選民。

在古希臘的神話故事中,宙斯降罪給位階較低的神明阿特拉斯,讓他用肩膀支撐天穹。矗立在紐約第五大街洛克菲勒中心(Rockefeller Center)前面的紀(jì)念銅像,刻畫的就是這一形象。在小說(shuō)家艾茵?蘭德的描繪中,阿特拉斯支撐著整個(gè)世界。她筆下的另一個(gè)角色問(wèn)道,如果他不堪重負(fù)了,那會(huì)怎么樣?答案是:他聳了聳肩。這就是如今許多美國(guó)選民的感覺(jué)。他們厭倦了讓美國(guó)扮演現(xiàn)代的阿特拉斯,已經(jīng)準(zhǔn)備抖落掉世界超級(jí)大國(guó)這個(gè)地位帶來(lái)的負(fù)擔(dān)了。

從伍德羅?威爾遜到富蘭克林?羅斯福、約翰?F?肯尼迪,再到如今,在多任總統(tǒng)的治下,美國(guó)一直承擔(dān)著很大一部分全球責(zé)任。長(zhǎng)期以來(lái),美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)全力支持這一做法,國(guó)家摒棄了袖手旁觀的孤立主義,轉(zhuǎn)而對(duì)抗法西斯主義和世界共產(chǎn)主義。同時(shí),為了提高全世界人民的生活水平,美國(guó)還建立了世界銀行(World Bank)以及其他一系列發(fā)展機(jī)構(gòu)。在二戰(zhàn)后大規(guī)模推行馬歇爾計(jì)劃(Marshall Plan),重建被戰(zhàn)火摧殘的歐洲的過(guò)程中,這種精神體現(xiàn)得淋漓盡致。這不純粹是一種利他行為,而是出于國(guó)家利益的考慮。

美國(guó)需要保持全球領(lǐng)袖的地位,這種想法曾是美國(guó)人的共識(shí),但如今,信念已然黯淡。部分原因在于,美國(guó)參與海外事務(wù)并未取得滿意的效果。民眾的不滿在某種程度上始于朝鮮戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng),其后在越南戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)、海灣戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)、阿富汗的戰(zhàn)事以及如今中東地區(qū)的混亂中,美國(guó)公眾形象的破滅又讓這種不滿繼續(xù)發(fā)酵。

在全球化和科技變革的壓力下,財(cái)富分配變得越來(lái)越不均衡,這種強(qiáng)烈的感覺(jué)進(jìn)一步增強(qiáng)了美國(guó)本土的厭世情緒。得益于《退伍軍人法案》(GI bill)的“最偉大的一代”建立了州際公路,縱情于新發(fā)明和優(yōu)渥的生活中,他們感覺(jué)美國(guó)無(wú)所不能。但如今,他們的孫輩和曾孫輩面臨著沉重的學(xué)生貸款、稀缺的高薪崗位和逐漸開(kāi)始損毀的國(guó)家基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。后一點(diǎn)隨處可見(jiàn),我們的高速公路和大橋年久失修,相比東亞裝潢華麗的機(jī)場(chǎng),許多美國(guó)機(jī)場(chǎng)看起來(lái)是那么寒酸。

情況還不至于太糟糕。從任何角度看,無(wú)論是在經(jīng)濟(jì)上還是軍事上,美國(guó)仍然是最強(qiáng)盛的國(guó)家,有著強(qiáng)大的盟友和親密的貿(mào)易伙伴。但國(guó)內(nèi)彌漫著擺脫世界其他國(guó)家的強(qiáng)烈情緒:“我們?yōu)槭裁匆?dāng)世界警察?”不正是因?yàn)槲覀儏⑴c了全球經(jīng)濟(jì),才讓自己陷入了如此不利的處境嗎?今年的總統(tǒng)大選把類似的情緒帶上了臺(tái)面,甚至還在助推它蔓延,以至于它已經(jīng)成為了一種主流的聲音。

唐納德?特朗普和伯尼?桑德斯告訴選民,現(xiàn)行的國(guó)際貿(mào)易協(xié)議——那些要在美國(guó)的帶領(lǐng)下創(chuàng)造更好世界的協(xié)議——不值得提倡,它們對(duì)美國(guó)實(shí)際上是有害的。

中國(guó)有可能取而代之。中國(guó)在亞洲投資建設(shè)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施,卻并不強(qiáng)硬推行“民主自由理念”,也未曾強(qiáng)求別國(guó)開(kāi)放市場(chǎng)。與此同時(shí),中國(guó)正在借助自身的實(shí)力,鞏固他們?cè)跔?zhēng)議海域的主權(quán)。

美國(guó)可以通過(guò)更好、更具建設(shè)性的方式與亞洲接觸,只需要讓《跨太平洋伙伴關(guān)系協(xié)定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership)生效。這是20年來(lái)的第一個(gè)大范圍的貿(mào)易協(xié)定,它由美國(guó)牽頭,有其他11個(gè)太平洋沿岸國(guó)家加入。想要著手改善世界貿(mào)易的不僅有這12個(gè)國(guó)家,該地區(qū)還有另外6個(gè)國(guó)家也表現(xiàn)出了強(qiáng)烈的加入意愿。它的重要性不僅在于美國(guó)適度調(diào)低了關(guān)稅,海外市場(chǎng)壁壘更是大幅降低,而且它有助于美國(guó)在亞洲的積極布局,加強(qiáng)了歷任美國(guó)總統(tǒng)相繼提出并執(zhí)行了一個(gè)多世紀(jì)的政策,讓這塊地區(qū)變得更加安全,更加美好。

但這一計(jì)劃陷入了嚴(yán)重的麻煩。隨著美國(guó)政府遭遇近八年的僵局,國(guó)內(nèi)政治環(huán)境前所未有的糟糕,未來(lái)國(guó)會(huì)還可能會(huì)更加不作為——甚至是在這次選舉之后。沒(méi)有哪個(gè)總統(tǒng)候選人支持這個(gè)協(xié)議,國(guó)會(huì)憑什么通過(guò)它呢?

如今,我們需要在選舉之后新舊總統(tǒng)交接的國(guó)會(huì)會(huì)議上實(shí)現(xiàn)突破——孤注一擲地在今年為數(shù)不多的日子里通過(guò)這一貿(mào)易協(xié)定。因?yàn)榍閯?shì)十分明顯,2017年以后會(huì)是很長(zhǎng)的一段間歇期??梢钥隙?,無(wú)論美國(guó)人民選擇了哪個(gè)新政府,在接下來(lái)至少幾年內(nèi),他們都難以推行貿(mào)易協(xié)定。

其他國(guó)家不會(huì)原地踏步等著美國(guó)一起行動(dòng)。他們也在努力出臺(tái)彼此之間的特惠貿(mào)易協(xié)定,美國(guó)的商品和服務(wù)會(huì)受到排斥。這對(duì)美國(guó)收入分配不均和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展可不是好事。國(guó)內(nèi)的惰性會(huì)深深傷害美國(guó)的地緣政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)利益。

我的忠告:不要太靠近第五大道的銅像。阿特拉斯可能要聳肩了。 (財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

作者艾倫?沃爾夫(Alan Wolf)曾任美國(guó)助理貿(mào)易代表。他長(zhǎng)期從事國(guó)際貿(mào)易律師的工作,現(xiàn)為美國(guó)全國(guó)對(duì)外貿(mào)易委員會(huì)主席。

譯者:嚴(yán)匡正

In ancient Greek mythology, Zeus condemned a lesser god, Atlas, to hold the heavens on his shoulders, an image captured in a monumental bronze statue standing in front of Rockefeller Center on New York’s Fifth Avenue. As pictured by novelist Ayn Rand, Atlas is holding up the world itself, when one of her characters asks what would happen if the weight became unbearable. The answer: He shrugs. That is what all too many American voters appear to feel today—tired of the United States playing the role of a modern-day Atlas, ready to cast off the burden of having world superpower status.

America has borne a large part of the weight of the world under a series of presidents—from Woodrow Wilson to Franklin Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, right up through the present. For a long time, this vision was fully supported by Congress, converted from isolationism to a need to fight fascism and world communism, and by a mission to raise living standards around the world through the creation of the World Bank and a series of other development institutions. It was best manifested on a very large scale with the post-World War II Marshall Plan—the rebuilding of a war-ravaged Europe. It was not done solely out of altruism, but national interest.

What was once a common vision of the need for America’s world leadership has dimmed. In part, this is due to unsatisfactory foreign engagements, starting with the Korean War to some extent, but with a growing sense of public disillusionment building up through the Vietnam War, the second Gulf War, the war in Afghanistan, and the current chaos in the Middle East.

This world-weariness has been compounded by a strong feeling at home that prosperity is increasingly less evenly shared under the pressures of globalization and technological change. The “Greatest Generation” benefitted from the GI bill, created the interstate highway system, reveled in new inventions and a better life, and therefore felt that the United States could do it all. Now their grandchildren and great-grandchildren see a mountain of student debt, less well-paying jobs, and a crumbling national infrastructure. This is visible in absolute terms, with our highways and bridges in bad repair, and many of America’s aging airports looking shabby as compared with East Asia’s spectacular ones.

The picture is not that dark. The United States is still the most well off of any country by any measure—whether economic or military. It has strong alliances and close trading partners. But there is a strong mood in the country of moving toward disengagement from the rest of the world: “Why do we have to be the world’s policeman?” Isn’t our international economic engagement leaving us holding the wrong end of the stick? This year’s presidential election has brought those feelings to the surface, and even encouraged them, so much so that they’re now a dominant theme.

Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders tell voters that current international trade agreements—the instruments that with America’s leadership will help create a better world—are not worth having, but are in fact harmful.

China is presenting an alternative. It offers investment in infrastructure to Asia without pressing the ideals of democratic freedom or providing an opportunity for individuals to improve their economic well being through freer markets. At the same time, China is using its power to solidify its claims over large areas of disputed ocean.

America has at hand a far better and more constructive approach to Asia—putting into place the Trans-Pacific Partnership. TPP is the first major broad trade agreement negotiated in 20 years, led by the United States and joined in by 11 other Pacific-Rim countries. It is more than a start toward improving world trade among these 12—a half dozen other economies in the region have expressed a strong interest in joining. Its importance transcends modest reductions in U.S. tariffs more than matched by larger reductions in foreign market barriers. It maintains the positive presence of America in Asia. By doing so, it fosters the policies begun and carried on by American presidents for well over a century of making that part of the world a more secure and better place.

This enterprise is in very serious trouble. With the U.S. government characterized by nearly eight years of gridlock, and with domestic politics far more poisonous than ever before, the expectation is of yet more congressional inaction—even after this election has come and gone. Why should Congress act to approve this agreement when no presidential candidate has embraced it?

What is needed is a breakthrough in the lame duck session of Congress meeting after the election—a “Hail Mary” pass, approving this trade pact during the few days remaining this year. For what follows in 2017 is all too clear—a long pause. It is certain that any new administration that the American people choose will find it difficult to act on any trade agreement, at least for a few years.

Other countries are not going to stand around waiting for America to get its act together. They are working on preferential trade agreements among themselves that will discriminate against American goods and services. That will not help with America’s income inequality or economic growth. National inertia is deeply harmful to America’s geopolitical and economic interests.

A word of advice: Don’t stand too close to that statue on Fifth Avenue. Atlas may be about to shrug.

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