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脫歐公投前英國經(jīng)濟(jì)的“最后狂歡”

脫歐公投前英國經(jīng)濟(jì)的“最后狂歡”

Geoffrey Smith 2016-08-02
公司方面并非一片黯淡,但領(lǐng)先指標(biāo)看來仍很糟糕。

無論接下來將要出現(xiàn)怎樣的糟糕局面,今年第二季度英國經(jīng)濟(jì)還是來了一場“最后的狂歡”。4-6月份英國GDP增長了0.6%,遠(yuǎn)高于經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的預(yù)期,也超過了上季度0.4%的升幅。

第二季度數(shù)據(jù)中,工業(yè)產(chǎn)出增長了2.1%,這是1999年以來的最大季度漲幅,增長主要受制藥行業(yè)推動(dòng)。隨著更多具體數(shù)據(jù)出爐,以上數(shù)據(jù)很可能會(huì)被調(diào)整。

然而,在脫歐派開始?xì)g慶之前,應(yīng)該指出的一點(diǎn)是,制造業(yè)僅占英國經(jīng)濟(jì)的15%,占英國GDP四分之三以上的服務(wù)業(yè)確實(shí)放慢了增長腳步,第二季度升幅從上季度的0.6%降至0.5%。

這份官方數(shù)據(jù)公布前一周,就業(yè)報(bào)告剛剛發(fā)布,后者表明英國失業(yè)人數(shù)創(chuàng)8年新低,就業(yè)率則達(dá)到45年以來的最高點(diǎn)。對于6月23日的脫歐公投,外界的解讀是英國民眾對于被全球化力量“甩在身后”感到絕望,但這樣的說法似乎與以上數(shù)據(jù)向左。實(shí)際上,2008年爆發(fā)金融危機(jī)以來,英國經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長速度一直高于歐洲的另外三個(gè)G7成員國。

現(xiàn)在英國經(jīng)濟(jì)將走向何處呢?

新任財(cái)政大臣菲利普·哈蒙德表示,這些數(shù)據(jù)證明“英國將以強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)開啟談判”。

不過,就業(yè)和GDP實(shí)際上是歷史數(shù)據(jù),而且有充足理由認(rèn)為上圖中那條走勢良好的上升線很快就會(huì)陡然轉(zhuǎn)而下行。同樣在上周三公布的英國工商業(yè)聯(lián)合會(huì)月度經(jīng)銷商調(diào)查顯示,7月份商品銷量出現(xiàn)了2012年1月以來的最大跌幅,訂單也急劇減少,預(yù)示著8月份銷量將進(jìn)一步滑坡。

其他較具前瞻性的指標(biāo)以及同步指標(biāo)同樣下行。金融信息服務(wù)商Markit公布的7月份服務(wù)業(yè)采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)(PMI)從6月份的52.3降至47.4,這表明產(chǎn)出下降的速度達(dá)到了2009年以來的最高點(diǎn);建筑業(yè)PMI的走勢也是如此,從6月份的51.2降至46.0,原因是不明朗的前景造成大宗投資降溫。英國銀行家協(xié)會(huì)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,6月份對公司放貸出現(xiàn)今年初以來的首次滑坡,抵押貸款核準(zhǔn)數(shù)量也降至15個(gè)月來的最低點(diǎn)。

但在公司層面,迄今為止的英國公司業(yè)績遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)算不上一邊倒的低迷。葛蘭素史克上周三表示,將在英國新投資2.75億英鎊(3.60億美元),以提高三家工廠的產(chǎn)量。建筑商Taylor Wimpey Plc稱,公投以來的經(jīng)營環(huán)境一直“符合正常的季節(jié)性模式”。

該公司在報(bào)告中指出:“雖然公投后平均撤銷率一度小幅上升,但和長期歷史正常水平相比仍較低,而且現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)回落至近期的低點(diǎn)。”

富時(shí)250指數(shù)的覆蓋范圍比富時(shí)100指數(shù)廣,而且更集中于英國國內(nèi)。目前該指數(shù)已經(jīng)收復(fù)脫歐公投以來的全部失地。

股市氣氛樂觀有兩大原因。首先,英國央行和財(cái)政部都已暗示,將通過放松政策來吸收脫歐公投對信心的沖擊(英國央行鷹派首腦人物馬丁·威爾上周發(fā)表講話時(shí)調(diào)整了自己的觀點(diǎn),央行則有可能在8月份采取行動(dòng))。同時(shí),英鎊貶值讓人們猜測打算抄底的外國人將收購英國公司(比如軟銀斥資320億美元收購芯片制造商ARM控股)。

不過,另一個(gè)因素可能也起了作用。脫歐公投引發(fā)的短暫混亂過后,英國政界人士的表現(xiàn)有了改善,這讓人們看到了希望,進(jìn)而認(rèn)為脫歐事宜將得到妥善處理,并會(huì)盡量減少公司受到的影響。新首相特蕾莎·梅和歐洲領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的首輪會(huì)面產(chǎn)生了一些積極反響,其中包括在一些棘手事務(wù)上得到了保證,比如將以建設(shè)性和謹(jǐn)慎的方式處理與愛爾蘭以及法國的邊境通行問題。德國總理安吉拉·默克爾也讓人們松了一口氣,因?yàn)樗芙^敦促英國開啟正式脫歐談判。

換句話說,自6月23日到目前為止,英國還沒有出現(xiàn)媒體大肆渲染的災(zāi)難性場面。一切都剛剛開始,而且仍有可能采取樂觀的態(tài)度,如果大家從一個(gè)足夠尖銳的角度來看,情況至少是這樣。 (財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Charlie

Whatever the chaos it’s heading into now, the U.K. economy had a “l(fā)ast hurrah” in the second quarter, growing 0.6% in the three months to June—well above economists’ forecasts, and up from 0.4% in the previous quarter.

The figure, which is likely to be revised as more hard data come in, showed that industrial output put in its strongest quarterly performance since 1999, a 2.1% rise driven mainly by the pharmaceutical industry.

But before Brexiteers get carried away on a wave of enthusiasm, it’s worth pointing out that manufacturing is only 15% of the economy. Services, which account for over three-quarters of gross domestic product, did indeed grow at a slower rate, expanding only 0.5% following 0.6% in the three months to March.

The official data follow hard on the heels of last week’s labor report, which showed joblessness at an eight-year low and the highest-ever employment rate in the U.K. in 45 years of measuring the labor force. Those figures appear to clash with the narrative that the vote to leave the European Union on June 23rd came from a population despairing at being “l(fā)eft behind” by the forces of globalization. The U.K. has actually grown more than any of the other three European G7 members since the financial crisis struck in 2008.

Which way now for U.K. GDP?

Philip Hammond, the new chancellor of the exchequer (the equivalent position to treasury secretary), said the figures were proof that “we enter our negotiations from a position of economic strength.”

But both employment and GDP data are essentially historical, and there is plenty of reason to think that the nicely upward-sloping line in the chart above is about to take a sharp turn downwards in the near future. A monthly survey of the distributor sector by the Confederation of British Industry, which was also released Wednesday, showed that sales volumes fell faster in July than at any time since January 2012, while a sharp drop in orders pointed to further declines in August.

Other more forward-looking or coincident indicators are also heading south. Markit’s services Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 47.4 from 52.3 in June, suggesting that output is contracting faster than at any time since 2009. Markit’s construction PMI went the same way, falling from 51.2 in June to 46.0 this month, as uncertainty about the outlook cast a chill over big-ticket investments. Lending to businesses fell for the first time this year in June, according to the British Bankers’ Association, while mortgage approvals fell to a 15-month low.

And yet at a company level, the noises coming out of U.K. Plc during the current earnings season have been far from unanimously negative. GlaxoSmithKline ?ask? said Wednesday it will invest an extra 275 million pounds ($360 million) in the U.K. to increase production at three different sites. Homebuilder Taylor Wimpey Plc ?TWODY?2.42%? said that business conditions since the referendum had been “in line with normal seasonal patterns.”

“Whilst we saw a small increase in the average cancellation rate immediately following the referendum, this remained low compared to long term historic norms and is now back in line with recent low levels,” the company said in its report.

The FTSE-250, a broader and more domestically-focused index than the benchmark FTSE-100, has now made good all its losses since the Brexit vote.

Two factors go a long way to explaining the stock market’s optimism: first, both the Bank of England and the Treasury have signaled that they will loosen policy to help absorb the shock to confidence from the Brexit vote (the BoE move is likely in August after leading hawk Martin Weale changed his call in a speech last week), while the drop in sterling has prompted speculation that U.K. companies will be taken over by bargain-hunting foreigners (such as Softbank’s $32 billion deal for chipmaker ARM Holdings Plc).

But another factor may also be at work. After a chaotic immediate aftermath to the Brexit vote, Britain’s politicians have raised their game, subsequently raising hopes that the separation process will be managed responsibly and in such a way as to minimize disruption to business. New Prime Minister Theresa May’s first round of meetings with her European peers has produced some positive noises, including guarantees that thorny issues such as border controls with Ireland and France will be managed constructively and sensitively. Germany’s Angela Merkel was also conciliatory, refusing to join calls for the U.K. to get a move on with triggering formal separation talks.

In other words, the U.K. has so far avoided living up to the apocalyptic rhetoric that flooded the airwaves since June 23. It’s early days, but it is still possible to view the glass as half full, at least if you look at it from a sharp enough angle.

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