唐納德·特朗普昨天經(jīng)濟(jì)演說的一大特點(diǎn)是他說的大部分內(nèi)容是米特·羅姆尼、保羅?萊恩、甚至后里根時(shí)代的任何一位共和黨總統(tǒng)候選人早就說過的。降低稅率、取消“遺產(chǎn)稅”、減少干預(yù)、為家庭提供稅收減免，無視赤字影響，這些一直以來都是共和黨政策的基本點(diǎn)。大家可以認(rèn)為，造成這種情況的是特朗普的新任經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問拉里·庫(kù)德羅和史蒂芬·摩爾。40年來，兩人一直在為共和黨人士的供應(yīng)側(cè)經(jīng)濟(jì)演說設(shè)計(jì)論點(diǎn)。

不過，特朗普的不同之處在于他還加上了“美國(guó)為先”的沙文主義，或者說明確拒絕自二戰(zhàn)以來持續(xù)推動(dòng)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的全球化。這是他對(duì)勞工階層發(fā)出的危險(xiǎn)誘惑，他說自己將“讓美國(guó)再次變得偉大”，途徑是限制移民以及和中國(guó)、墨西哥等國(guó)重新商討貿(mào)易條約，并在這個(gè)過程中保護(hù)美國(guó)人的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)。昨天特朗普說：“從我們放棄‘美國(guó)為先’的政策開始，我們就一直在重建其他國(guó)家，而不是我們的祖國(guó)?！?/p>

碰巧，昨天我和華為發(fā)言人譚喬伊一起吃了晚飯?？梢哉f，華為是最全球化的中國(guó)企業(yè)。譚喬伊向我展示了華為最新的“全球競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力指數(shù)”。這個(gè)指數(shù)通過40項(xiàng)指標(biāo)來衡量各個(gè)國(guó)家的科技能力，而科技能力可以說是未來經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)鍵。其中居于首位的是哪個(gè)國(guó)家呢？美國(guó)。中國(guó)則遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)落后，排名第23；墨西哥當(dāng)然更是如此，排在第32位。

華為認(rèn)為美國(guó)在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)爭(zhēng)奪中處于上風(fēng)，特朗普及其追隨者則認(rèn)為我們?cè)诠?jié)節(jié)敗退，原因何在？這是2016年大選中的一條悖論。包括我在內(nèi)，許多人都認(rèn)為相對(duì)開放的貿(mào)易和移民政策正是美國(guó)活力的根源所在，從而讓美國(guó)在最關(guān)鍵的科技競(jìng)賽中領(lǐng)先于其他國(guó)家。然而，對(duì)那些覺得自己被全球化遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)拋在身后的人來說，特朗普卻很有吸引力，希拉里也越發(fā)如此。

正是出于這個(gè)原因，盡管特朗普發(fā)表了供給側(cè)經(jīng)濟(jì)演講，但我仍要說，兩位候選人都沒有促進(jìn)商業(yè)發(fā)展。在今天最成功的企業(yè)戰(zhàn)略中，全球化仍是重中之重。美國(guó)政界這撥人卻一直對(duì)全球化投反對(duì)票。無論誰贏得大選，這對(duì)企業(yè)來說都是壞消息。

順便說一下，沒有提詞器的特朗普要有趣多了。我想他不一定會(huì)養(yǎng)成用提詞器的習(xí)慣。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

校對(duì)：詹妮

What was striking about?Donald Trump’s economic speech yesterday?was that most of it could have been given by Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, or indeed any other GOP candidate of the post-Reagan era. Cut tax rates, eliminate the “death tax,” reduce regulation, create tax breaks for families, and ignore the impact on the deficit – these are long-time staples of Republican politics. You can credit that to Trump’s new economic advisers Larry Kudlow and Stephen Moore, who have been crafting supply-side economic talking points for GOP politicians for four decades.

But what makes Trumponomics different is his addition of “America first” jingoism – the explicit rejection of the globalization that has powered economic growth since World War II. This is his siren call to the working class: he will “make America great again” by restricting immigration and renegotiating trade deals with China, Mexico, and others – protecting U.S. jobs in the process. “When we abandoned the policy of America First,” he said yesterday, “we started rebuilding other countries instead of our own.”

By coincidence, I had dinner last night with Joy Tan, who runs communications for Huawei – arguably the most global of China’s large companies. She presented the company’s latest “global connectivity index” which rates countries’ tech prowess, arguably the key to future economic growth, based on 40 different indicators. Number one on the Huawei list? The United States, which ranked far ahead of China, at number 23, and certainly Mexico, at 32.

Why does Huawei think the U.S. is winning the global economic battle, while Trump and his followers think we are losing? That’s the paradox of Election 2016. Many – myself included – would argue that relatively open trade and immigration policies are at the very root of the dynamism that has allowed the U.S. to continue to lead the world in the all-important technology race. But Trump – and Clinton, to a growing extent – are appealing to those who feel globalization has left them in the dust.

Which is why, despite Trump’s new supply-side rhetoric, I continue to argue that neither candidate in this race is pushing the agenda of business. Globalization is still at the very center of today’s most successful corporate strategies. But it has been voted off the island of American politics. That’s bad news for business, regardless of who wins.

By the way, Trump is far more entertaining without a teleprompter. I doubt he will make using one a habit.