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中國的最新貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)傳遞復雜信號,進口量激增或預示經(jīng)濟回暖

中國的最新貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)傳遞復雜信號,進口量激增或預示經(jīng)濟回暖

財富中文網(wǎng) 2016-09-13
有跡象顯示,對中國經(jīng)濟前景的光明展望或許是正確的。

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今年8月,中國的出口額(以美元計價)較上年同期下跌了將近3個百分點,就連上月從中國各個工廠大量出貨的iPhone 7也沒能阻住出口貿(mào)易額的下跌。與此同時,中國的進口貿(mào)易額則略有上升,漲幅為1.5%。

不過在今天發(fā)布的中國進出口貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)中還是顯現(xiàn)出了一些積極的跡象。2015年8月,中國曾一夜之間將人民幣貶值2%,用貶值的人民幣計算,當時的貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)自然要好看得多。如果現(xiàn)在我們也用人民幣計價的話,那么今年8月中國的出口貿(mào)易額實際增長了將近6%,出口額更是躍升了11%,這也是中國進出口貿(mào)易額連續(xù)21個月收緊以來的首次強勢回彈,且進口額和出口額都顯著超過了此前分析師的預期。

人民幣貶值顯然對出口貿(mào)易起到了一定的推動作用,因為這樣一來,中國商品用進口國貨幣計價時就會顯得更便宜。不過由于各大發(fā)達國家普遍增長緩慢,人民幣的貶值效應也在一定程度上受到了削弱。匯豐銀行的經(jīng)濟學家朱麗亞·王和李晶(音譯)今日在香港指出:“影響貿(mào)易的根本性問題,如商業(yè)投資和全球增長疲軟等,可能仍將繼續(xù)成為抑制外需的重要制約?!?/p>

從進口數(shù)據(jù)來看,一個最積極的跡象就是進口量的增長。在此前幾個月,中國的進口貿(mào)易只是稍有好轉——這主要也是為了給中國國內經(jīng)濟正在日益恢復的說法背書。而且這種好轉也只是進口價值的回升,而不是進口量的回升——今年以來,由于國際油價和其它大宗商品價格上漲,迫使中國不得不花更多的錢去購買同樣數(shù)量的商品。

但八月以來,中國的進口商品數(shù)量也出現(xiàn)了顯著上升,這進一步給看漲中國經(jīng)濟前景的觀點提供了支持,同時它也表明了中國的消費需求可能確實出現(xiàn)了上漲。這種趨勢從最近的一系列工業(yè)和消費經(jīng)濟調查中也可看出。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:樸成奎

Even Chinese factories cranking out new iPhone 7s couldn’t save the country’s exports from sputtering in August, when they fell almost 3% year over year when priced in U.S. dollars. Imports edged up slightly, rising by 1.5%.

But there was more positive news in today’s trade release than those figures indicate.

China devalued its currency overnight by 2% in August 2015, and when priced in the country’s cheapening yuan, the trade figures look a lot better. In yuan terms, August exports rose almost 6% and imports jumped 11%, after contracting for 21 consecutive months. Both export and import data also blew past analyst expectations.

It’s becoming clear that the cheaper yuan has helped exporters sell more of their stuff abroad, where Chinese goods have become less expensive when priced in local currencies. Still, this currency effect has been dampened by slow growth across developed countries. “The fundamental issues that weigh on trade, in terms of poor business investment and global growth, will likely continue be a drag on external demand,” HSBC economists Julia Wang and Jing Li wrote today in Hong Kong.

In terms of import data, one of the most positive takeaways is that import volumes rose.

In previous months, the slight improvement in imports—used to support the story of China’s recovering domestic economy—came from a rise in the the value of imports, not from growing volume. Oil and other commodity prices have risen this year, forcing China to spend more money to import the same amounts.

But in August, a sharp rise in import volumes supports the the idea that a brighter outlook for China’s economy and consumers might be for real. That outlook has shown up in recent surveys of industrial and consumer economies.

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