中國八月份的工廠產(chǎn)出和零售業(yè)增長速度超出預(yù)期。房地產(chǎn)市場的繁榮和政府的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施消費(fèi)熱潮，支撐了世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的增長。

隨著對煤炭、汽車等商品的需求反彈，工業(yè)產(chǎn)值達(dá)到五個(gè)月來最快增速，但分析師警告，制造業(yè)投資疲軟和私有企業(yè)支出不足，將給未來前景蒙上陰影。

德國商業(yè)銀行的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家周浩（音譯）表示：“數(shù)據(jù)的改善顯然得益于房地產(chǎn)市場。這是不可持續(xù)的。”

他提到了對中國臃腫低效的國有企業(yè)期待已久的全面改革。他表示：“現(xiàn)在是中國進(jìn)行結(jié)構(gòu)性改革，特別是進(jìn)行國有企業(yè)改革，提振經(jīng)濟(jì)信心的理想時(shí)機(jī)?！?/p>

八月份經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢的好轉(zhuǎn)雖然幅度不大，但也表明中國第三季度的增長超出了幾個(gè)月前的預(yù)期，并且雖然私人投資急劇下跌，導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)更加依賴政府開支，但八月份中國可能還是實(shí)現(xiàn)了政府制定的2016年6.5% - 7%的增長目標(biāo)。

周二公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，八月份，中國的工業(yè)產(chǎn)值年比增長了6.3%。為保證本月早些時(shí)候召開的G20全球領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人峰會(huì)期間的藍(lán)天，杭州許多工廠被迫關(guān)閉，因此分析師預(yù)測，中國的工業(yè)產(chǎn)值增幅僅有6.1%。

尤其明顯的是，中國的鋼鐵行業(yè)經(jīng)過產(chǎn)能削減和控制產(chǎn)量之后提高了價(jià)格和利潤，因此開始復(fù)蘇，而基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)熱潮和房地產(chǎn)繁榮，也刺激了對鋼筋、混凝土等建筑材料的需求。

八月份，中國粗鋼產(chǎn)量年比增長3%，連續(xù)六個(gè)月保持增長。中國規(guī)模最大的上市鋼企寶山鋼鐵股份有限公司（Baoshan Iron & Steel）（簡稱“寶鋼”）在周二宣布，提高十月份鋼材價(jià)格，這是今年到目前為止該公司第八次提價(jià)。

零售銷售也輕松超出預(yù)期，零售銷售額增長速度從前一個(gè)月的10.2%增長到了10.6%。分析師預(yù)測的零售銷售額增幅為10.3%。

今年，中國的汽車銷售強(qiáng)勁，在八月份，由于消費(fèi)者紛紛搶在購置稅優(yōu)惠政策到期之前購車，因此汽車銷售額創(chuàng)下3年半來的新高。

上周公布的貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)顯示，進(jìn)口總額在近兩年內(nèi)首次出現(xiàn)增長，出口下降也有所緩和。

大規(guī)模的政府支出突出了經(jīng)濟(jì)的不平衡

今年前八個(gè)月，固定資產(chǎn)投資增幅始終保持在8.1%，略高于預(yù)期。

當(dāng)然，投資增長速度依舊是1999年12月以來的最低水平，而且有細(xì)節(jié)顯示，公共和私人支出日益嚴(yán)重的不平衡，引發(fā)了對中國長期增長前景的擔(dān)憂。

位于北京的經(jīng)紀(jì)商中國國際金融股份有限公司（China International Capital Corporation）在一份報(bào)告中表示，雖然總體投資數(shù)據(jù)穩(wěn)健，但在八月份，作為未來活動(dòng)關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)的新開工項(xiàng)目數(shù)據(jù)卻有所疲軟。

今年前八個(gè)月，國有企業(yè)投資大幅增長21.4%，這進(jìn)一步表明，中國政府日益依賴政府支出來拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。中國的財(cái)政支出增加了12.7%。

雖然為了抑制房價(jià)暴漲，越來越多的城市采取了住房限購政策，這引發(fā)了長達(dá)近一年的房地產(chǎn)繁榮可能迎來拐點(diǎn)的擔(dān)憂，但房地產(chǎn)依舊是中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的亮點(diǎn)之一。

據(jù)路透社的計(jì)算數(shù)據(jù)顯示，八月份，中國房地產(chǎn)投資年比增長了6.2%，相比之下，七月份僅有1.4%，而按建筑面積計(jì)算的銷售額增長了25.5%。

凱投宏觀（Capital Economics）的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家朱利安·埃文斯-普理查德在報(bào)告中寫道：“房地產(chǎn)銷售繼續(xù)飛速增長。但考慮到基本面因素表明中國的房地產(chǎn)需求增長率僅有較低的個(gè)位數(shù)，因此我們懷疑這種飛速增長的趨勢還能持續(xù)多久。”

與房地產(chǎn)市場的火熱形成鮮明對比的是，今年截至八月份，制造業(yè)部門的固定資產(chǎn)投資僅增長了2.8%。

私人投資降溫是警告信號

今年前八個(gè)月，私人投資增幅僅有2.1%，與前七個(gè)月的增幅相同，依舊為歷史最低。

雖然私人企業(yè)的月度支出增長了2.3%，止住了連續(xù)兩個(gè)月的下滑勢頭，但這依舊是決策者們必須關(guān)注的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵問題，因?yàn)樗麄冊?jīng)承諾要改善更高效的私有經(jīng)濟(jì)部門的經(jīng)營環(huán)境。

但在需求疲軟且無法從強(qiáng)勁的房地產(chǎn)和大宗商品中獲益的私有部門，可能很難得到政府的更多支持。

杭州MeiSai制衣有限責(zé)任公司（Hangzhou Meisai Clothing Co., Ltd.）的總經(jīng)理萬薇薇（音譯）表示：“公司很困難?？傮w經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢不好，許多行業(yè)面臨產(chǎn)能過剩問題，這些問題的影響波及到了所有行業(yè)。”

她表示，過去幾年，她公司的利潤率從20 - 30%，被壓縮到了約10%，她所在地區(qū)的許多公司都倒閉了。

分析師認(rèn)為，隨著之前的政策扶持帶來的效果消退，以及面對債務(wù)增長和房地產(chǎn)泡沫的加劇，中國政府與央行可能會(huì)推遲進(jìn)一步寬松政策，因此中國可能會(huì)迎來另一輪經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩。

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人智庫（Economist Intelligence Unit）的亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家湯姆·拉弗蒂在報(bào)告中表示：“我們預(yù)計(jì)，到2017年，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的動(dòng)力將會(huì)逐漸減弱，房地產(chǎn)市場將進(jìn)入下行周期，汽車行業(yè)可能面臨產(chǎn)能過剩問題。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

China‘s factory output and retail sales grew faster than expected in August as a strong housing market and a government infrastructure spending spree underpinned growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

Industrial output grew the fastest in five months as demand for products from coal to cars rebounded, though analysts warned the outlook is clouded by weakness in manufacturing investment and a lack of spending by private firms.

“It is very clear that the data is improving because of the property market. This is not sustainable,” Commerzbank economist Zhou Hao said.

“It is a good time for China to deliver on structural reform, especially on the SOE side, to restore confidence in the economy,” he said, referring to a long-promised overhaul of the country’s often bloated and inefficient state-owned enterprises.

Improvements in August, while modest, suggestChina‘s third-quarter growth is holding up better than expected just a few months ago and likely remains within the government’s 2016 target range of 6.5-7%, despite the alarming drop in private investment which has left the economy more dependant on government spending.

Industrial output rose 6.3% in August from a year earlier, data showed on Tuesday. Analysts had expected it to pick up only slightly to 6.1% as many plants were closed around Hangzhou to guarantee blue skies for a G20 summit of world leaders earlier this month.

China‘s steel industry, in particular, has perked up as capacity cuts and production curbs boost prices and profits, while the infrastructure spree and housing boom have spurred demand for building materials from iron beams to cement.

China‘s crude steel output rose 3% in August from a year ago, the sixth straight monthly rise. Its biggest listed steelmaker, Baoshan Iron & Steel (Baosteel) said on Tuesday it has raised its prices for October, its eighth price hike so far this year.

Retail sales also handily beat expectations, with growth accelerating to 10.6% from 10.2% the previous month. Analysts had forecast an increase of 10.3%.

Car sales have been strong in China this year, hitting a 3-1/2 year high in August as buyers rushed to get new wheels before a tax cut expires at year-end.

Trade data last week showed imports rose for the first time in nearly two years, while export declines eased.

STRONG GOVERNMENT SPENDING HIGHLIGHTS IMBALANCES

Fixed asset investment was unchanged at 8.1% over the first eight months of the year, marginally better than expected.

Still, the rate of growth in investment remained the slowest since December 1999, and details showed a growing imbalance between public and private spending that raised questions aboutChina‘s longer-term growth prospects.

Beijing-based broker China International Capital Corporation said in a note that while the headline investment figures were solid, data on new project starts, a leading indicator for future activity, softened in August.

Highlighting Beijing’s increasing reliance on government spending to drive the economy, investment by state firms surged 21.4% in the first eight months of the year. China‘s fiscal spending rose 12.7%.

Property also remained a bright spot, despite fears that a near one-year-long housing boom may be peaking as more cities impose curbs on home purchases to rein in sharp price rises.

Property investment rose 6.2% in August on-year, according to Reuters calculations, compared with 1.4% in July, while sales by floor space grew 25.5%.

“Property sales continue to expand at a rapid pace. We are skeptical how long this can last given that fundamental factors point to housing demand growth in the low single digits,” Capital Economics economist Julian Evans-Pritchard wrote in a note.

The strength in the property market compared with only 2.8% growth in fixed asset investment in the manufacturing sector for the year through August.

COOLING PRIVATE INVESTMENT A WORRY

Private investment grew just 2.1% in the first eight months of the year, the same pace as in January-July and remaining at record lows.

While private firms boosted spending 2.3% on a monthly basis, reversing a two-month slide, the issue remains a key concern among policymakers, who have pledged to improve operating conditions for the more efficient private sector.

But government support may only go so far in sectors with weak demand that do not benefit from strong property and commodities markets.

“Business is tough. The economy overall is bad and many industries are facing overcapacity issues, which filters through and impacts all industries. Consumers’ spending power is falling and competition is intense,” says Vivi Wan, general manager at apparel manufacturer Hangzhou Meisai Clothing Co., Ltd.

Wan says her company’s margins have been compressed from 20-30% to around 10% over the last few years, and that many firms in the area have shut down.

Analysts say China may face a renewed slowdown as the impact of previous policy support fades and as the government and central bank hold off on further easing over concerns of rising debt and housing bubbles.

“We think that momentum behind the economy will fade in 2017, when the property market will be on a downward cycle and the automotive sector is likely to be facing overcapacity issues,” Tom Rafferty, Asia Economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said in a note.