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中國經(jīng)濟減速,農(nóng)民工返鄉(xiāng)創(chuàng)業(yè)

中國經(jīng)濟減速,農(nóng)民工返鄉(xiāng)創(chuàng)業(yè)

財富中文網(wǎng) 2016-10-13
中國政府希望支持破產(chǎn)的國有企業(yè),增加再培訓,鼓勵人們自己創(chuàng)業(yè)。

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在中國西北的邊墻村,每個夏天,當?shù)厝硕紩墼谝黄?,花三個晚上來觀看戲劇。那里有兒童車、爆米花和叉烤雞。老人們會照看著他們的孫子孫女。

今年夏天,情況有些不同,年輕的父母開始更多地出現(xiàn)。之前,他們把子女交給父母照管,前往附近的城鎮(zhèn)打工。不過隨著中國經(jīng)濟減速,農(nóng)民工越來越難找到工作,開始逐漸返鄉(xiāng)。

多年來,中國的失業(yè)率一直維持在4%左右,盡管經(jīng)濟在過去25年里保持的兩位數(shù)高速增長率,在去年已經(jīng)降到了不足7%。

然而,中國的官方數(shù)據(jù)并未涵蓋2.77億農(nóng)民工,這掩蓋了國內(nèi)失業(yè)和不充分就業(yè)的真實情況。張思虎(音)和他的妻子就是農(nóng)民工,他們來自玉林的邊墻村。這里地處中國西北的陜西省,富含煤礦、石油和天然氣。

幾年前,中國的房地產(chǎn)熱潮在玉林達到了頂點。這對夫妻開了一個餐館供建筑工人用餐,一個月能掙1萬元。這是農(nóng)民工平均工資的兩倍,但如今,這里的房地產(chǎn)熱潮已經(jīng)消退。

14年前離開邊墻村的張思虎表示:“去年已經(jīng)很難賺錢了,所以我把餐館關(guān)了,想找份廚師的工作?!?/p>

“但找工作也很難,沒什么地方招人。終于有了工作,但幾個月后又讓我走?,F(xiàn)在生意不好做,所以老板決定自己來支撐餐館?!?/p>

張思虎夫妻如今已經(jīng)回到老家,重新和父母和孩子們經(jīng)營家庭牧場。他們養(yǎng)了200頭牛。

玉林商業(yè)局的一名政府官員表示:“這是個大問題,因為農(nóng)民工沒法在城市找到工作,但如果他們回到家鄉(xiāng),收入又太低?!?/p>

經(jīng)濟學家認為,商業(yè)調(diào)查可能是評定廣大勞動市場每月狀況的最好途徑。而調(diào)查顯示,制造業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)的失業(yè)人數(shù)已有抬頭之勢。

香港匯豐銀行(HSBC)的經(jīng)濟師朱莉婭·王表示:“農(nóng)民工是勞動力市場中非常靈活的一塊,他們(在官方數(shù)據(jù)中)不屬于任何地方?!?/p>

“看看過去兩年里,農(nóng)民工市場發(fā)生了什么。前往大城市的農(nóng)民工數(shù)量已經(jīng)大大減少了。”

中國政府的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,2015年農(nóng)民工的數(shù)量增加了0.4%,這是自2009年全球金融危機以來增速最低的一次。離開家鄉(xiāng)省份求職的農(nóng)民工數(shù)量,則在2015年出現(xiàn)了六年來的首次下滑。

境遇不佳的不僅是農(nóng)民工。國有企業(yè)和其他大公司的員工也遭遇了不景氣、收入低、不充分就業(yè)和工作保障差的影響。

路透社在3月報道稱,中國計劃在未來兩到三年內(nèi)解雇500萬至600萬國企員工。

王梅(音)說,她和丈夫之前都在內(nèi)蒙古的中國石油工作。這是中國最大的石油和天然氣公司。不過在工資大幅下滑后,他們回到了自己的家鄉(xiāng),玉林市綏德縣。

她表示:“現(xiàn)在經(jīng)濟不好,我們的孩子在綏德,這是我們長大的地方,所以我們決定回來?!彼a充道,她之前在中石油的維持部門,而她丈夫在IT部門。

“我認為,丈夫做出這個辭職的決定很艱難。國企的工作更穩(wěn)定,但是他的工資從4,000多元跌到了2,000元,所以他最后還是決定離開?!?/p>

中國石油的發(fā)言人表示,公司正努力維持前線工作人員的收入,不過他們拒絕對這一特例,以及后勤部門員工的工資變化發(fā)表評論。

王梅在綏德縣政府的服務(wù)辦公室找到了臨時工作,她的丈夫仍然在考慮接下來的打算。

“可能他會自己做生意,開一個網(wǎng)店,很多人都在這么做。不過我不想讓他草率地去當一個企業(yè)家,這不明智。”

中國政府正努力提高就業(yè),他們的政策包括支持破產(chǎn)的國有企業(yè),增加再培訓,鼓勵人們自己創(chuàng)業(yè)。

一位玉林的劉姓國企員工表示:“你知道我們是怎么工作的嗎?只需要露個面,聊個天,喝個茶,讀個報,閑坐會,就可以了,不用干什么事?!?/p>

“在我們這個國企,三分之二的人什么都不干?!?/p>

在玉林,創(chuàng)業(yè)孵化器如雨后春筍般出現(xiàn)。一些政府官員表示,這是為了鼓勵人們創(chuàng)辦公司,應(yīng)對經(jīng)濟增速放緩的局勢。

白慧芳今年25歲,她管理的孵化器內(nèi)飾有竹類植物,還有臺球桌和共產(chǎn)黨員活動室。她說,2015年,這里有32家初創(chuàng)公司,不過只有一家成功募得了資金。

“我們存活下來的很大原因在于政府資助。政府樂于看到我們的存在,因為他們正在努力阻止失業(yè)率的提高?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))

譯者:嚴匡正

Every summer in Bianqiang village in northwesternChina, locals gather for three nights of Chinese opera. There are children’s rides, popcorn and spit-roasted chickens. Grandparents watch over their grandchildren.

This summer’s event was different though because more young parents were present. In previous years they had left their children in the care of grandparents while they found work in nearby cities and towns. But as China‘s economy slows, jobs for migrant workers are drying up and they are heading back home.

China‘s official unemployment rate has been around 4% for years, despite the rapid slowdown in the economy from double-digit growth to quarter-century lows last year of less than 7%.

But the real level of unemployment or underemployment is masked by the fact that the official data does not include China‘s 277 million migrant workers, such as Zhang Sihu and his wife from Bianqiang in Yulin, a region rich in coal, oil and natural gas in northwestern Shaanxi province.

At the height of China‘s real estate boom in Yulin a few years ago, they made 10,000 yuan a month, running a canteen for construction workers. That was double the average migrant wage, but the boom is now over.

“It became too difficult to turn a profit last year, so I closed the canteen and went to find work as a cook,” said Zhang, who left Bianqiang village 14 years ago.

“But it was difficult finding work, no one was hiring, and when I did find a job, I was let go after a few months. Business wasn’t good so the boss is now running the restaurant himself.”

Zhang and his wife have now returned to their home village and are back on the family farm with their children and parents, raising 200 head of cattle.

“It’s a big problem because migrant workers can’t find jobs in the city, but if they stay in their hometowns, their income is very low,” a government official at Yulin’s bureau of commerce said.

Business surveys, which economists say may be the best monthly measure of the broader labor market, have shown renewed job shedding in both manufacturing and services.

“Migrant workers are a very elastic part of the labor pool that aren’t captured anywhere (in official statistics),” said Julia Wang, an economist with HSBC in Hong Kong.

“If you look at what’s happened to the migrant worker pool over the past two years, the trend of people going to cities has slowed significantly.”

Government data shows the number of migrant workers rose 0.4% in 2015, the weakest increase since the global financial crisis in 2009. Migrants searching for jobs outside of their home province fell in 2015 for the first time in six years.

It is not only migrant workers losing out. Employees of state-owned enterprises (SOE) and other larger firms are also being hit by stagnant or lower wages, underemployment and less job security.

Reuters reported in March that China was aiming to layoff 5-6 million state workers in the next two to three years.

Wang Mei said she and her husband were working for PetroChina, China‘s biggest oil-and-gas producer, in Inner Mongolia, but moved home to Suide county in Yulin, after their salaries were slashed.

“The economy isn’t doing well, our child is here in Suide, this is where we grew up, so we decided to move back,” she said, adding she worked in maintenance and her husband worked in IT at PetroChina.

“I think it was difficult for my husband to decide to quit his job. It’s more stable working at a state-owned enterprise but his salary dropped from over 4,000 yuan per month to 2,000 yuan, so he finally decided to quit.”

A spokesman for PetroChina said the company was trying to keep salaries of front-line workers stable, but declined to comment on this particular case or recent salary trends for back office staff.

Wang has found temporary work at a local government service office in Suide, while her husband considers his next move.

“Maybe he’ll start his own business – an e-commerce store, lots of people are doing that. But I don’t want him to blindly become an entrepreneur, that wouldn’t be good.”

The government is trying to support employment, including by propping up insolvent SOEs, increasing retraining programs and encouraging people to become entrepreneurs.

“You know how it is – you show up, have a chat, drink some tea, read the newspaper, sit around, don’t really do anything,” said an employee of a SOE in Yulin, who gave his surname as Liu.

“Two-thirds of people don’t do any work at our SOE.”

Startup spaces have begun popping up around Yulin, which several government officials said was aimed at encouraging the creation of new businesses to counter the slowdown in economic growth.

Bai Huifang, 25, manages an incubator decked out with bamboo plants, a pool table, and a stage draped in Communist Party paraphernalia. It housed 32 start-ups in 2015 but only one was successfully funded, Bai said.

“A big reason why we’re able to survive is because of government funding. And the government is happy we exist because they are grappling with rising unemployment.”

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