私營(yíng)數(shù)據(jù)研究機(jī)構(gòu)China Beige Book International（CBB）的調(diào)查顯示，今年三季度中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)完全依靠制造業(yè)和房地產(chǎn)，服務(wù)和零售業(yè)則發(fā)展停滯，并沒(méi)有近期一系列強(qiáng)勁數(shù)據(jù)中顯示的健康。

CBB對(duì)3100多家公司的調(diào)查表明，制造業(yè)增速居中國(guó)各行業(yè)之首，53%的制造商表示收入出現(xiàn)了增長(zhǎng)，遠(yuǎn)高于一年前的3%。

CBB指出，政府在基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施領(lǐng)域大興土木以及樓市火爆給鋼鐵、水泥等“傳統(tǒng)”公司打了一劑強(qiáng)心針，與此同時(shí)，海外訂單也出現(xiàn)了改善。

但服務(wù)、交通運(yùn)輸和零售等“新興”行業(yè)不管環(huán)比還是同比均表現(xiàn)低迷，現(xiàn)金流和利潤(rùn)減少，經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展很不均衡。

服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展放緩，零售商的表現(xiàn)則處于該調(diào)查開(kāi)始以來(lái)的最低水平，原因是電子商務(wù)公司不斷侵蝕市場(chǎng)份額。

調(diào)查報(bào)告的作者勒蘭德·米勒和德里克·西塞斯在和該報(bào)告一同發(fā)表的文章中指出：“中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析的首要問(wèn)題仍然是不愿正視可疑數(shù)據(jù)背后的真相?！?/p>

“在這個(gè)季度，GDP和PMI等關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)仍會(huì)配合政府的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇判斷，但或許完全不受經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的人會(huì)相信?！?/p>

8月份的官方數(shù)據(jù)讓人看到一些希望，經(jīng)濟(jì)似乎正在企穩(wěn)，甚至可能重拾升勢(shì)——工業(yè)產(chǎn)值、消費(fèi)品零售額以及房地產(chǎn)投資增速均超過(guò)預(yù)期，工業(yè)企業(yè)利潤(rùn)增幅也達(dá)到了三年來(lái)的最高點(diǎn)。

但CBB的報(bào)告認(rèn)為，雖然房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)本季度的增長(zhǎng)依舊迅猛，但有跡象表明，火熱的樓市已經(jīng)開(kāi)始降溫。

各地的房地產(chǎn)銷售收入并不均衡，房企現(xiàn)金流減少，進(jìn)而引發(fā)了新一輪借貸熱潮，很可能加重對(duì)債務(wù)水平快速上升的擔(dān)心。此外，隨著房?jī)r(jià)飆升，收緊限購(gòu)的城市越來(lái)越多。

服務(wù)業(yè)方面，除了餐旅酒店企業(yè)，其他領(lǐng)域的增長(zhǎng)疲軟。純實(shí)體店零售商在第三季度凈收入完全沒(méi)有增長(zhǎng)。

報(bào)告稱：“零售業(yè)陷入困境，房地產(chǎn)泡沫泛起，這可不是許多人所謂的穩(wěn)定?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

China‘s economy was less healthy in the third quarter than a recent spate of upbeat data suggest, with growth coming exclusively from manufacturing and property while the services and retail sectors faltered, a private survey showed.

Manufacturing posted its fastest expansion nationally, with 53% of companies seeing revenue gains, up 3% from a year earlier, a quarterly survey of more than 3,100 firms by China Beige Book International (CBB) showed.

While a government infrastructure building spree and housing boom have given a much needed boost to “old economy” firms from steel mills to cement makers, CBB noted foreign orders had also improved.

But “new economy” sectors – services, transportation and retail – showed weakness both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, with cash flow and profits deteriorating, leaving the country on uneven footing.

Services slowed and retail firms experienced one of their weakest performances in the history of the survey as e-commerce firms gobbled up more market share.

“The chief problem in China economic analysis remains the unwillingness to look behind dubious headline data,” authors Leland Miller and Derek Scissors wrote in a note accompanying the report.

“High-profile indicators such as GDP and the PMIs this quarter will rubber stamp the government’s recovery narrative, but only those with nothing on the line should accept this at face value.”

Official data for August raised hopes the economy was stabilising and perhaps even picking up, with industrial output, retail sales and property investment all quickening more than expected, while industrial profits grew at the strongest pace in three years.

But while the property sector showed another quarter of strong growth, there are signs that China‘s real estate boom is starting to stutter, the CBB report said.

Property sales revenue is uneven across the country, while companies’ cash flow weakened, prompting a spree of new borrowing that will likely add to worries about rapidly rising debt levels. Moreover, more and more cities are tightening restrictions on home purchases as prices soar.

In the services sector, growth weakened in every area aside from hospitality. Retailers with only brick-and-mortar stores saw no net revenue growth in the third quarter.

“Struggling retail and a property bubble is not the kind of stability many are touting,” the report said.