隨著中國政府控霾力度不斷加大，中國鋼鐵企業(yè)的環(huán)保水平可以說每個月都有所提高，然而這卻并不等同于行業(yè)的“瘦身”。

雖然中國近來一直致力于加大環(huán)境整治的力度，同時削減鋼鐵行業(yè)的過剩產(chǎn)能，但在過去七個月里，作為全球第一大鋼鐵生產(chǎn)國的中國，其鋼鐵產(chǎn)量仍然較去年呈現(xiàn)了一定增長。

各大鋼鐵企業(yè)的成功“減排”，意味著中國鋼企已經(jīng)有能力滿足日益苛刻的政府環(huán)保標準，同時也意味著隨著這個行業(yè)的日益膨脹，中國政府或將更加難以削減鋼鐵行業(yè)的過剩產(chǎn)能。

從目前來看，國內(nèi)市場的基建等領域對鋼鐵的需求依然強勁，并吸收了大多數(shù)的過剩供給。但隨著中國經(jīng)濟降速傾向加劇，中國的鋼鐵企業(yè)或將被迫加大向海外銷售的力度。

如果事態(tài)真的朝著這個方向發(fā)展，或許將導致中國與歐美的經(jīng)貿(mào)關系再次趨于嚴峻。因為歐洲和美國雖然是中國最主要的貿(mào)易伙伴，但二者多年以來都在指責中國向海外市場傾銷過剩鋼鐵，損害了國外生產(chǎn)商的利益，沖擊了全球市場價格。

值得注意的是，中國近來剛剛舉辦了20國集團峰會。在峰會上，G20國家領袖還信誓旦旦地表示要通力合作，解決過剩產(chǎn)能問題。

中國第一大鋼鐵生產(chǎn)城市——河北省唐山市的例子生動地詮釋了中國政府所面臨的困局。為了舉辦一場為期幾個月的國際園藝博覽會，唐山市足足花了六個月的時間來搞環(huán)保清潔，以確保來訪的各國高官能夠看見藍天——其中也包括中國的國家主席習近平。

河北省的鋼鐵產(chǎn)量相當于全國鋼鐵產(chǎn)量的五分之一。行業(yè)專家曾預計，園博會因素將使河北省的鋼產(chǎn)量大幅下跌，從而在某種程度上也算實現(xiàn)了政府削減產(chǎn)能的目標。

然而事實上，鋼鐵產(chǎn)量的下跌幅度要遠遠低于專家的預期，因為就在鋼鐵企業(yè)大搞清潔化的同時，他們居然還在相當程度上保持了原有產(chǎn)能。

他們之所以能夠做到這一點，很大程度上是由于今年鋼鐵價格已經(jīng)上漲了40%，同時國內(nèi)市場的強勢需求預計還將持續(xù)。這也是為什么盡管中國的出口鋼鐵已經(jīng)跌至二月以來的最低水平，但中國的鋼鐵產(chǎn)能仍能出現(xiàn)增長。

中國工信部官員黃立斌指出，截止到九月底，中國在煤炭和鋼鐵行業(yè)已經(jīng)完成了全年80%的削減產(chǎn)能目標。

今年中國的目標是削減4500萬噸過剩鋼鐵產(chǎn)能。

然而盡管中國在削減過剩產(chǎn)能和抑制大氣污染方面已經(jīng)動了真格的，卻依然未能削弱鋼鐵行業(yè)的產(chǎn)量。據(jù)估算，中國每年生產(chǎn)的粗鋼，光是其過剩量就達到近3億噸，是全球第二大鋼鐵生產(chǎn)商日本的三倍。

杭州熱聯(lián)貿(mào)易公司投資經(jīng)理夏軍巖（音譯）認為：“如果鋼鐵企業(yè)是盈利的，只要他們達到了環(huán)境標準，政府就沒有理由要求他們削減產(chǎn)能?！?/p>

有行業(yè)內(nèi)幕人士指出，自2014年政府在全國范圍內(nèi)采取了嚴厲的環(huán)境整治措施以來，雖然唐山有很多小型鋼鐵企業(yè)都關閉了，但一些大型鋼鐵廠也都安裝或升級了環(huán)保設施。

據(jù)行業(yè)咨詢機構Custeel.com的一項調查顯示，在九月和十月份，為了迎接最近召開的園博會，一些鋼鐵企業(yè)被迫關停了燒結生產(chǎn)幾天。所謂燒結生產(chǎn)，就是將鐵礦石燒結成鐵坯的過程。但是在六個月的環(huán)境整治期間，唐山市的150座左右的高爐的產(chǎn)量只有三次出現(xiàn)了下降，分別是在六月、七月和九月，而且產(chǎn)量下降的時間只有短短幾天。

今年以來，唐山鋼鐵產(chǎn)量下降幅度最大的一次是在六月初，原因是中歐和東歐國家的領導人齊聚唐山商議經(jīng)濟合作，導致鋼鐵企業(yè)的開工率下降到了65%以下。另一次產(chǎn)量下降是在七月份，這一次是由于唐山市要紀念1976年的大地震，那次災害至少導致了25萬人喪生。

據(jù)Custeel.com顯示，除了這兩次特殊情況，唐山地區(qū)的鋼鐵企業(yè)普遍都達到了80%以上的產(chǎn)能。

杭州熱聯(lián)貿(mào)易公司的夏軍巖表示：“生產(chǎn)可以是很靈活的。即便鋼鐵企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)暫時受到環(huán)境整治的因素影響，他們之后也可以加大產(chǎn)能以彌補損失?！?/p>

現(xiàn)在看來，為了打贏今年冬天的治霾戰(zhàn)，政府已經(jīng)做好了繼續(xù)圍繞唐山鋼企做文章的準備。據(jù)一份政策文件顯示，上周，河北省政府已經(jīng)針對本地鋼鐵企業(yè)出臺了一份所謂的“特別排放限值”。

上個月，國家發(fā)改委宣布，全國各地已有數(shù)百家鋼鐵和煤炭企業(yè)因違反環(huán)保和安全規(guī)定而受到處罰，有些企業(yè)甚至被迫關?；蛳鳒p了產(chǎn)能。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：樸成奎

Chinese steel mills are becoming cleaner every month as Beijing pushes to curb its smoke-stack industries. But they’re not getting any leaner.

Despite efforts to step up environmental checks and trim out excess capacity, steel output by the world’s top producer has risen year-on-year for the past seven months.

As emissions cuts will mean steel mills are better able to meet stricter government standards, Beijing may find it more difficult to cut overcapacity in a sprawling industry.

For now, domestic demand from infrastructure and construction has been robust, absorbing most of the extra supply. But a steeper slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy could force mills to ramp up sales abroad.

That could rekindle tensions with Europe and the United States, major trading partners which have for years accused China of dumping its excess steel overseas, hitting producers and hurting global prices.

The issue took center stage at a recent G20 summit in China when world leaders pledged to work to address excess output.

China’s top steel producing city of Tangshan in Hebei province illustrates Beijing’s dilemma. Hosting a months-long international horticultural show, Tangshan had a major six-month clean-up to ensure blue skies for visiting dignitaries, including the country’s president Xi Jinping.

Industry experts predicted this would see a big drop in output in a province that accounts for a fifth of national production, going some way to realizing government goals on output and capacity cuts.

But production dipped by far less than expected as mills sustained output even as they cleaned themselves up.

They could do this largely because steel prices have risen 40% this year, and strong domestic demand is expected to continue, underpinning those increases, though exports have fallen to their lowest since February.

By end-September, China had completed more than 80% of this year’s capacity reduction goals in coal and steel, said Huang Libin, an official at the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

China has targeted a cut of 45 million tons from its surplus steel capacity this year.

But the battle to tackle excess capacity and curb pollution has failed to dent production. China’s annual crude steel surplus is estimated at around 300 million tonnes, three times the annual output of the world’s second-biggest producer, Japan.

“If steel mills are profitable, there’s no reason for the government to order them to reduce production if they meet environmental criteria,” said Xia Junyan, investment manager at Hangzhou CIEC Trading Co in Shanghai.

While many of Tangshan’s small mills have closed, bigger plants have installed or upgraded equipment since a nationwide environmental crackdown began in 2014, industry sources say.

Some were forced to cut sinter production—processing iron ore fines into lumps—for a few days in September and October to clear the skies during the recent horticultural show. But the city’s about 150 blast furnaces only dropped output three times—in June, July and September—and for only a couple of days during the six-month clean-up, according to a survey by industry consultancy Custeel.com.

The biggest drop was in early June when operating rates fell below 65% as leaders from central and eastern Europe gathered in Tangshan for talks on economic ties, followed by another fall in July as the city prepared to commemorate a 1976 earthquake that killed at least 250,000 people.

Otherwise, mills have been operating at above 80% of capacity this year, the Custeel.com survey showed.

“Production can be flexible. Even if production at steel mills is hit temporarily by the environmental crackdown, they can increase production later to offset the losses,” said Xia at Hangzhou CIEC Trading.

The government looks ready to keep targeting Tangshan’s mills in its war on winter smog, with Hebei province last week imposing what it calls “special emission restrictions” on local steel mills, according to a policy document.

Last month, the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s state planner, said it punished hundreds of steel and coal companies nationwide for violating environmental and safety regulations. Some were forced to close or cut output.