在多變的中外合資企業(yè)歷史當(dāng)中，事實(shí)證明，德意志銀行所持有的北京嘉實(shí)基金管理公司30%的股權(quán)是一筆明智的投資。鑒于德意志銀行據(jù)稱因在美國(guó)銷售抵押擔(dān)保證券而面臨巨額罰款，這筆投資可能能讓德國(guó)銀行得到喘息的機(jī)會(huì)。

嘉實(shí)基金管理公司成立于1999年。截至6月份，公司旗下管理的資產(chǎn)總額約為960億美元。根據(jù)Willis Towers Watson最新排名，這家私營(yíng)公司已發(fā)展成為中國(guó)第四大資產(chǎn)管理商。

德意志亞洲資產(chǎn)管理公司2005年持有嘉實(shí)19.5%的股份，然后在2008年增持至30%。然而該公司并未披露股權(quán)的購(gòu)買價(jià)格。

嘉實(shí)并未向外界公布其財(cái)務(wù)狀況，但業(yè)界內(nèi)部人士稱，他們認(rèn)為該公司處于盈利狀態(tài)，而且是大陸共同基金資產(chǎn)熱背后的受益大戶。上海咨奔商務(wù)咨詢公司預(yù)計(jì)，到2021年，大陸共同基金資產(chǎn)規(guī)模將增長(zhǎng)一倍多，達(dá)到3萬(wàn)億美元。

除了讓德意志亞洲資產(chǎn)管理公司分享欣欣向榮但限制頗多的大陸市場(chǎng)外，該合資企業(yè)還推出了多款大獲成功的離岸產(chǎn)品，例如與中國(guó)某個(gè)股票基準(zhǔn)掛鉤的嘉實(shí)CSI 300交易型開(kāi)放式指數(shù)基金。

咨奔公司估計(jì)，德意志亞洲資產(chǎn)管理公司的嘉實(shí)股份價(jià)值可能高達(dá)10億美元。

釋放價(jià)值

德意志銀行首席執(zhí)行官John Cryan表示，公司上個(gè)月對(duì)資產(chǎn)管理業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)行了審核，該業(yè)務(wù)在去年創(chuàng)造了33億歐元（約合37億美元）的營(yíng)收。但他補(bǔ)充道，他仍將合資企業(yè)看作是集團(tuán)“密不可分”的一部分。

然而，分析師建議，如果德意志銀行未能就據(jù)稱的抵押擔(dān)保債券不當(dāng)銷售一事，說(shuō)服美國(guó)司法部大幅降低其最初要求的140億美元罰金，那么德意志銀行應(yīng)釋放這一資產(chǎn)的價(jià)值。

《金融時(shí)報(bào)》稱，上個(gè)月，德意志銀行正在籌劃資產(chǎn)管理業(yè)務(wù)的上市。

德意志銀行和嘉實(shí)拒絕就此事置評(píng)。

直接銷售嘉實(shí)股份并不是件容易的事情，因?yàn)楦鶕?jù)中外合資企業(yè)條款，國(guó)內(nèi)合作方通常享有以折扣價(jià)購(gòu)買外國(guó)合作方所持股份的第一購(gòu)股權(quán)。同時(shí)，還有很多外國(guó)企業(yè)尋求銷售其在中國(guó)資產(chǎn)管理公司的股份，這也意味著有很多其他資產(chǎn)可供買家選擇。

咨奔公司提到，要變現(xiàn)嘉實(shí)股權(quán)的價(jià)值，一個(gè)更好的方法在于讓整個(gè)或部分資產(chǎn)管理部門上市。

咨奔公司首席執(zhí)行官Peter Alexander說(shuō)：“嘉實(shí)股份是德意志資產(chǎn)管理公司的掌上明珠，但鑒于在中國(guó)退出此類合資企業(yè)的復(fù)雜性，首次公開(kāi)募股是德意志銀行完全釋放其價(jià)值的最佳方式?！?/p>

北京中央政府最近開(kāi)放市場(chǎng)的舉措降低了合資企業(yè)對(duì)意欲進(jìn)軍中國(guó)的外國(guó)資產(chǎn)管理商的吸引力，而且在經(jīng)歷了過(guò)去兩年的撤資潮之后，爭(zhēng)搶買家的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)已變得十分激烈。

銀行人士稱，此類撤資通常會(huì)遭到中國(guó)監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)的反對(duì)，而中央政府對(duì)資本外流的嚴(yán)格控制也讓銷售現(xiàn)金收益的回流變得更加困難。德意志銀行本周剛剛獲得了中國(guó)監(jiān)管方的批準(zhǔn)，以最高40億美元的價(jià)格銷售其持有的北京華夏銀行20%的股份，而監(jiān)管方在去年年底便已同意該股份的銷售。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審校：詹妮

In the checkered history of foreign-Sino joint ventures, Deutsche Bank’s DB -0.88% 30% stake in Beijing-based Harvest Fund Management has proven a savvy investment – and may provide the German bank with a cushion as it faces a big penalty for allegedly misselling mortgage-backed securities in the United States.

Established in 1999 and with around $96 billion in assets under management as of June, privately-owned Harvest has grown to become China’s fourth largest asset manager, according to rankings recently produced by Willis Towers Watson.

Deutsche Asset Management Asia took a 19.5% stake in Harvest in 2005, and then raised that to 30% in 2008. It has not disclosed the price it paid for the stake.

Harvest’s financials are not public, but industry insiders say they believe it is profitable and in a prime position to benefit from a boom in mainland mutual fund assets which Shanghai consultancy Z-Ben Advisors forecasts will more than double to $3 trillion by 2021.

In addition to giving Deutsche a slice of the booming but restricted mainland market, the venture has spawned successful offshore products such as the Harvest CSI 300 ETF, which is based on a benchmark of Chinese stocks.

Z-Ben estimates Deutsche’s Harvest stake could be worth upwards of $1 billion.

UNLOCKING THE VALUE

Deutsche CEO John Cryan said last month the asset management business, which generated 3.3 billion euros ($3.7 billion) in revenue last year, was being reviewed but added he wanted it to remain an “integral” part of the group.

Analysts, though, have suggested that Deutsche could look to unlock the value of the business if the bank fails to persuade the U.S. Department of Justice to substantially reduce an initial demand for $14 billion in penalties over the alleged misselling of mortgage-backed securities.

The Financial Times reported last month that Deutsche Bank is working on a public listing of the asset management business.

Deutsche Bank and Harvest declined to comment for this story.

A direct sale of the Harvest stake would be tricky because under the terms of sino-foreign joint ventures the domestic partner typically enjoys first option to buy the foreign partner’s holding at a discount. Also there are a host of other foreign companies seeking to exit their stakes in Chinese asset management companies, which means there are many other assets available for buyers.

A better avenue for Deutsche to monetize Harvest’s value would be to float all or parts of the asset management unit, according to a note from Z-Ben.

“The Harvest stake is Deutsche Asset Management’s crown jewel, but due to the complexity of exiting such joint venture investments in China an IPO would allow the German bank the best route to fully unlock its value,” said Peter Alexander, Z-Ben’s chief executive.

Beijing’s recent moves to open-up the market has made joint ventures a less attractive avenue for foreign asset managers seeking to access China, and competition for buyers is already fierce after a flurry of divestments over the past two years.

Such divestments are generally frowned upon by Chinese regulators, while Beijing’s clampdown on capital outflows is making it tougher to repatriate sale proceeds, according to bankers. Deutsche just this week gained Chinese regulatory approval for the sale of its 20% stake in Beijing-based Hua Xia Bank for up to $4 billion. It agreed on the sale late last year.