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線上銷售額創(chuàng)新高 為何亞馬遜股價(jià)不漲反跌?

線上銷售額創(chuàng)新高 為何亞馬遜股價(jià)不漲反跌?

Stephen Gandel 2016-12-01
亞馬遜在甩賣,華爾街也在甩賣亞馬遜股票。

今年的感恩節(jié)后首個(gè)星期一——“網(wǎng)絡(luò)星期一”,美國(guó)電商亞馬遜網(wǎng)站有好些商品促銷。Fire筆記本電腦只要33.33美元,智能家居語(yǔ)音助手Echo Dot也只要39.99美元。那天亞馬遜還有一樣降價(jià)出售:股票。

本周一,亞馬遜股票每股下跌12美元,跌幅1.5%,收?qǐng)?bào)每股768美元。和不到兩個(gè)月前847美元的近期高點(diǎn)相比,其股價(jià)已經(jīng)下跌將近80美元。分析師此前預(yù)計(jì),“網(wǎng)絡(luò)星期一”亞馬遜的銷售額有望創(chuàng)新高,達(dá)到33億美元,較去年同期增長(zhǎng)將近10%。亞馬遜的股價(jià)卻下跌了。

到底哪出了問題?

沃爾瑪之類傳統(tǒng)零售巨頭增長(zhǎng)近10%可以說(shuō)不錯(cuò),但對(duì)亞馬遜而言增速略顯緩慢。今年第四季度亞馬遜的銷售額預(yù)計(jì)同比增長(zhǎng)25%。由于投資者預(yù)期業(yè)績(jī)會(huì)大幅增長(zhǎng),亞馬遜市值已達(dá)3650億美元,過去12個(gè)月市盈率高達(dá)176倍。因此,10%的增長(zhǎng)實(shí)際上很令人失望。

去年以沃爾瑪為首的一眾零售業(yè)巨頭越來(lái)越重視線上銷售。今年沃爾瑪和塔吉特為了抗衡亞馬遜,在“黑色星期五”和“網(wǎng)絡(luò)星期一”兩天折扣力度都很大。研究機(jī)構(gòu)Market Track根據(jù)假日宣傳廣告分析發(fā)現(xiàn),今年感恩節(jié)后促銷季中沃爾瑪?shù)钠骄劭蹫?9%,去年為35%。塔吉特的平均折扣38%,也高于去年的36%。

巨頭圍攻壓力下,亞馬遜只能跟著打折。亞馬遜表示,本周網(wǎng)站有7.5萬(wàn)件打折商品。不過這次投資者押注亞馬遜能將龐大的銷售收入轉(zhuǎn)化為利潤(rùn),今明兩年將分別盈利48億美元和69億美元。

好在亞馬遜增長(zhǎng)最快的業(yè)務(wù)——網(wǎng)絡(luò)服務(wù)并不依賴“網(wǎng)絡(luò)星期一”的流量,至少和亞馬遜網(wǎng)站的流量沒有直接關(guān)系。但網(wǎng)絡(luò)服務(wù)畢竟只占亞馬遜業(yè)務(wù)約10%。如果已然四面受敵的亞馬遜遭遇更多線上價(jià)格戰(zhàn),下跌的股價(jià)可能就不是折扣而是實(shí)在的虧損了。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Pessy

審校:夏林

Amazon.com has dozens of deals on items this Cyber Monday. You could pick up a Fire tablet for just $33.33 or the Echo Dot for $39.99 Also on sale this Cyber Monday, it seems: Amazon’s shares.

Shares of the online retailer slipped $12, or 1.5%, to $768 on Monday. The stock is now down nearly $80 from its recent high of $847 less than two months ago. The drop in shares of Amazon AMZN -1.79% come as analysts are saying that this Cyber Monday is expected to be the biggest ever, hitting a record $3.3 billion in sales, up nearly 10% from a year ago.

So what gives?

Well, while near 10% growth sounds good, and would be great for a giant traditional retailer like Walmart WMT -0.06% , it would actually be relatively slow for Amazon. Sales at the online retailer are expected to rise 25% in the fourth quarter from a year ago. The expectation of huge sales growth is built into Amazon’s enormous stock market valuation of $365 billion, or 176 times its last 12 months of earnings. So a 10% jump would actually be a big disappointment.

In the past year, giant retailers, Walmart in particular, have put more and more emphasis on growing their online sales. Walmart and Target TGT -1.13% this year offered bigger discounts on Black Friday and Cyber Monday to combat Amazon. Research firm Market Track, based on holiday circulars, found that Walmart was offering an average discount of 39% this year, up from 35% last year. Target is offering average discounts of 38% during the post-Thanksgiving shopping spree, vs. 36% a year ago.

This is forcing Amazon to match as well. It says it is offering deals on 75,000 items on its website this week. And this comes at a time when investors are betting that Amazon will be able to turn its massive sales into profit, as much as $4.8 billion this year, and $6.9 billion next.

The good news is that the fastest growing portion of its business, web services, is not as dependent on Cyber Monday traffic, or at least traffic directly to Amazon. Still that only makes up about 10% of Amazon’s total business. And if the company increasingly finds itself in even more of an online price war than its already in, investors may not be getting much of a discount on the company’s shares at all.

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