歐盟可謂一波未平一波又起。目前，歐盟還在努力應對英國脫歐公投造成的影響，意大利又將在周日舉行公投，這可能進一步沖擊歐元。公投的支持者認為，公投提議的修憲將結束意大利立法程序的混亂和僵化。而反對者卻表示，修憲會毀滅代議民主制度，使意大利進入威權主義的新時期。

現年41歲的意大利總理馬泰奧?倫齊，以改革與復興的天真口號上臺掌權。他承諾如果在周日公投中，意大利選民反對修憲，他將辭去總理職位。而這可能會引發(fā)意大利的另一項公投；不過，這一場公投將由五星運動黨（Five Star Movement）的領導人、原喜劇演員貝佩?格里羅主導。五星運動黨希望舉行脫離歐元區(qū)的公投。換言之，如果公投結果不支持修憲，將會進一步加劇全球市場波動，使這一計劃雪上加霜。六月份的脫歐公投，已經使歐盟陷入前所未有的存在性焦慮。

而如果意大利選民支持修憲，布魯塞爾和世界主要金融中心肯定會長舒一口氣。

但事實證明，周日公投的結果很難預測。這不止是因為在今年民意調查出現嚴重失誤（脫歐公投、特朗普）之后，全球對民調的可靠性產生了廣泛質疑。為了保證選前寧靜，意大利采取了一種激進的方式，這在以國民健談（或許正是出于這個原因）著稱的意大利是極其罕見的：政府特別在公共廣場強調投票的“私密性”（畢竟意大利在1988年才廢除議會不記名投票），各大機構也努力確保在投票之前的這段時間，最大程度減少干擾，讓國民安靜、沉默、單獨行使投票權。

尤其是在這場意大利政治運動的最后兩周，更是禁止進行民意調查。

由于自11月19日以來，沒有公布任何對周日公投的民意調查結果，因此意大利和全球媒體得以從自我強加的義務中解放了出來，不必再盲目地跟蹤報道最新的民調結果變化。但面對新獲得的自由，媒體怎么辦？多數媒體都在重復管制階段開始之前公布的最后民調結果。所有結果均顯示反對陣營領先，受此影響，意大利政府債券收益率大幅提高。

或許是最近意識到了過度依賴民意調查的謬誤，媒體和投資者將全球波動性面臨的下一次嚴峻考驗，看作是繼續(xù)過度依賴民意調查的機會?！叭f變不離其宗”用意大利語怎么說？

而Predata的調查結果卻顯示出截然相反的情況。Predata調查了公投雙方陣營的網絡宣傳活動吸引的參與度水平。

Predata的數據顯示出意大利公投的選情變化

9、10月份的網絡宣傳活動均以反對陣營為主導，與民調結果相符，但在11月初，支持陣營開始發(fā)力。在民意調查管制開始后的10天內，支持陣營的勢頭加快，現在，支持陣營的網絡宣傳活動已經“領先”。

需要說明的是：調查結果并不代表預測意大利選民會在周日支持倫齊的修憲主張。我們得出的分數也不能代替民意調查。但這些數據卻向我們揭示了對公投的討論所發(fā)生變化，而且或許具有重要意義的是，支持陣營在網上的勢頭強勁，比反對陣營吸引了更多網民的關注，這主要得益于支持陣營的幾條出色的宣傳廣告，以及加納出生的21歲音樂人貝羅?菲戈發(fā)行的一首支持修憲的說唱歌曲在年輕人當中引起的熱烈反響。

在實行民調管制前幾周，民意調查結果均顯示，25%的選民仍未做出決定。此外，國內民調并不包括意大利規(guī)模龐大的海外人口，該群體約占全國4,700萬合格選民的8%。這均意味著，在解讀管制開始前的民調結果時，應該像制作煮意大利面的水一樣：要加上足夠多的鹽，才能與地中海的水相媲美。

民意調查“遺漏”的選票，極有可能決定周日公投的結果。我們的調查對自然狀態(tài)下的在線參與方式進行了解讀，它們沒有受到民調公司各種提示的干擾和引導。數據顯示，支持陣營及其政治改革和組建高效率政府的主張，可能正在引起越來越多人的興趣，這是管制開始前的民意調查未能捕捉到的。

公平地說，部分感興趣的選民可能來自尚未做出決定的選民和海外選民。最近幾周，雙方陣營都在努力吸引海外選民，但Predata對網絡宣傳活動的監(jiān)控數據顯示，支持陣營的網絡宣傳活動，吸引海外選民的效率遠遠高于反對陣營。

我們的數據顯示網絡上的勢頭正在向支持陣營轉變之后，博彩市場也開始向類似的方向變化。這并不意味著支持陣營肯定會贏得周日的公投，但卻證明，公投結果并不會像反對陣營支持者所預測的那樣，導致意大利和歐洲的建制派徹底崩潰。 （財富中文網）

作者：Aron Timms

譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

One crisis barely over and another begins. As the European Union continues to grapple with the fallout from Britain’s Brexit vote, Italians will vote this Sunday in a referendum that could further shake the Euro. Supporters say the constitutional reforms proposed in the referendum would end the chaos and sclerosis of Italy’s legislative process. Detractors say they would kill representative democracy and usher in a new period of authoritarianism.

Matteo Renzi, the 41-year-old prime minister who vaulted to power three years ago on a cherubic cloud of reform and renewal, has pledged to resign should Italians reject Sunday’s referendum. This could trigger fresh elections; elections could hand power, in turn, to Beppe Grillo, a former comedian and leader of the Five Star Movement (M5S), a coalition that wants to hold a referendum on leaving the Euro. A No vote, in other words, could spell further volatility in global markets and heap more misery on a European project already brought to unprecedented depths of existential angst by June’s Brexit vote.

If Italians vote Yes, the relief in Brussels and across the world’s major financial centers will probably be audible.

Figuring out which way Italians will vote on Sunday is proving to be a tricky task. This is more than simply a reflection of the broader global questioning of polls’ reliability in the wake of this year’s big polling misses (Brexit, Trump). Perhaps unusually for a country whose citizens have a reputation for volubility (or perhaps because of this), Italy takes an aggressive approach to electoral silence: there’s a special emphasis in the public square on the “private and secret” nature of voting (this is, after all, a nation that only abolished secret voting in parliament in 1988), and institutions work hard to ensure there is minimal interference in the period immediately preceding elections with the quiet, contemplative and solitary act of civil enfranchisement.

Polling, in particular, is prohibited in the final two weeks of Italian political campaigns.

Since there have been no polls published on Sunday’s referendum since November 19, the Italian and global press has been liberated from the self-imposed obligation to slavishly report the latest polling swings. What has it done with this new freedom? Mostly, it’s repeated the results of the final polls published before the blackout began, all of which showed No ahead. Italian government bond yields have climbed in response to No’s time-frozen lead in the polls.

Newly aware of the fallacy of over-reliance on polls, the media and investors have taken the next great test of global volatility as an opportunity to remain over-reliant on polls. What’s Italian for “plus ?a change”?

Predata’s signals, which measure the level of engagement generated by each side of the referendum campaign online, tell a different story.

Predata data showing Italian referendum sentiment

The No camp dominated the digital referendum campaign for all of September and October, mirroring poll findings, but in early November, Yes began to gather momentum. That momentum has accelerated in the 10 days since the polling blackout descended, and Yes is now “ahead” in the digital campaign.

To be clear: this does not amount to a prediction that Italians will vote to approve Renzi’s reforms on Sunday. Nor do our scores replace the polls. But they do tell us something about the way discussion of the referendum is evolving, and it’s potentially significant that the Yes camp — assisted by a couple of killer campaign ads and the street cred jolt of a pro-Yes hip hop track by 21-year-old Ghana-born musician Bello FiGo — has digital momentum on its side and is now capturing more of the online public’s attention than No.

In the weeks before the blackout descended, polls consistently showed around 25% of the electorate remained undecided. Italy’s large expat population — 8% of the 47 million eligible to vote — is also excluded from domestic polling. All this means you should consume the pre-blackout polls the same way you prepare your pasta water: with enough salt to rival the Mediterranean Sea.

These votes “l(fā)eft out” by the polls are likely to be decisive come Sunday. Our signals, which pick up on patterns of online engagement in their natural state, unmediated and undirected by the promptings of a pollster, suggest there may be a current of interest in the Yes camp and its message of political reform and efficient government that the pre-blackout polls did not capture.

Some of this interest, it’s fair to surmise, may come from undecided and expat voters. Both sides have worked hard to woo overseas voters in recent weeks, but Predata’s monitoring of the digital campaign suggests the Yes camp’s digital expat outreach has been more effective than No’s.

In the wake of the swing in digital momentum toward Yes revealed through our signals, the betting markets have begun to move in a similar direction. That doesn’t mean Yes is certain to win on Sunday. But it does suggest that the result will be far from the hearty “vaffanculo” to the Italian and European establishment that No’s boosters predict.