商業(yè)領袖是時候回顧這一波全球的民粹主義浪潮了。盡管這聽起來像個奇怪的建議，因為這股浪潮似乎才剛剛開始。雖然奧地利的民族主義候選人諾伯特?霍費爾在昨天的總統(tǒng)大選中失敗，但意大利總理倫齊在修憲公投中的慘敗更加引人矚目。主要的受益者是“五星運動”（Five Star Movement）這個在七年前由電視喜劇演員貝佩?格里洛建立的反體制、反歐元的民粹主義政黨。在英國脫歐和唐納德?特朗普的當選之后，民粹主義這次引人矚目的勝利，讓法國、德國和荷蘭的民粹主義者勢頭更進一步，這些國家都將在明年舉行大選。

那么為什么要在民粹主義高歌猛進之時回顧它呢？因為即使是在這個充滿不確定性的世界上，我們也有把握預測一些事情。

民粹主義者無法兌現(xiàn)他們的諾言

民粹主義者期冀的許多政策都無法頒布，因為得不到立法機構的通過。他們還可能感受到權力的負擔，不得不考慮想做的事情可能給現(xiàn)實世界帶來的后果。在美國我們已經看到，面對競選時在貿易、放松管制和移民問題上的承諾，特朗普退縮了，而他的任期甚至還未開始。

采用的政策會失敗

在民粹主義者的政策實施的領域，不會起到什么效果，也就是說，它們無法給支持者帶來承諾的利益。對進口商品征收沉重的關稅，不會像特朗普承諾的那樣讓傳統(tǒng)的重工業(yè)崗位回歸賓夕法尼亞、俄亥俄、密歇根或威斯康辛。拋棄歐元不會讓任何歐洲國家變得更加繁榮。禁止或嚴格限制移民也不會給國內公民帶來更多更好的工作。

叛變將會出現(xiàn)

我們可以合理地推斷，隨著未能實現(xiàn)的承諾越來越多，民粹主義支持者的叛變就會像他們的涌現(xiàn)一樣突然。在這個充滿大量網(wǎng)民的高度連接的世界，主流的意見可能會突然徹底地傾斜。就在兩年前，意大利人還認為倫齊是打破舊習、反正統(tǒng)的救世主，而如今選民已經受夠了他。2012年，法國人放棄了右傾的尼古拉斯?薩科齊，投入了極端社會主義者弗朗索瓦?奧朗德的懷抱，而如今后者飽受斥責，將成為二戰(zhàn)以來法國第一位不尋求連任的總統(tǒng)，民族主義者瑪麗娜?勒龐則成為了該國最炙手可熱的候選人。

商業(yè)領袖應該做好準備，依據(jù)歷史標準，民粹主義的浪潮可能會曇花一現(xiàn)，在幾年內就自行消散。沒有人可以精確預言接下來的走向，而戰(zhàn)爭等大規(guī)模破壞性事件，總是會改寫劇本。盡管如此，對領袖而言，去準備民粹主義之后的計劃方案還為時尚早。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：嚴匡正

It’s time for business leaders to start looking past the global populism surge, which sounds like decidedly odd advice considering that the surge seems just to be getting started. Though Austrian nationalist candidate Norbert Hofer lost yesterday’s presidential election, the more significant result was the drubbing that Italian voters inflicted on Prime Minister MatteoRenzi in a constitutional referendum. The main beneficiary is the populist, anti-establishment, anti-euro Five Star Movement, a party founded just seven years ago by TV comedian BeppeGrillo. This new high-profile populist victory, coming after Brexit and Donald Trump’s win, gives momentum to already strong populists in France, Germany, and the Netherlands, all of which hold national elections next year.

So why look past populism, which is still gaining strength? Because even in this incredibly uncertain world, we can predict a couple of things with moderate confidence.

Populists won’t be able to deliver on their promises

Many of their favored policies won’t be enacted because legislatures won’t approve them or because the populists, on assuming the burden of power, will have to face the real-world consequences of what they propose to do. In the U.S. we’ve already seen Trump back away from major campaign promises on trade, deregulation, and immigration, even before his inauguration.

Adopted policies will fail

To the extent the populists’ policies are enacted, they won’t work; that is, they won’t deliver the promised benefits to supporters. Slapping heavy tariffs on imports won’t bring the old heavy manufacturing jobs back to Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, or Wisconsin, as Trump promised. Abandoning the euro won’t make any European nation more prosperous. Prohibiting or severely restricting immigrants won’t bring more and better jobs to a country’s citizens.

There will be a revolt

We can also be reasonably confident that as failed promises stack up, the revolt of the populists’ supporters will be just as sudden as the populists’ rise was. In a hyper-connected world filled with constantly connected people, prevailing opinion can lurch radically. Italy voted for Renzi as an iconoclastic, anti-establishment savior just two years ago; now voters are fed up with him. In 2012 France swung from center-right President Nicolas Sarkozy to extreme socialist Francois Hollande, who is now so reviled that he will be the first French president since World War II not to run for re-election, and nationalist Marine Le Pen is the country’s fastest rising candidate.

Business leaders should prepare for the possibility that the populist surge may be, by historical standards, a brief phenomenon, burning itself out within maybe a few years. No one can say precisely how that scenario might unfold, and major disruptive events such as war could always rewrite the script. Nonetheless, even now, it isn’t too early for leaders to prepare a scenario plan on what’s past populism.