公共政策研究所（Institute of Public Policy Research ，IPPR）發(fā)布了一則報告《未來的證據(jù)：2020年代的英國》（Future Proof: Britain in the 2020s），報告形容英國脫歐是“在未來十年內(nèi)帶來破壞的罪魁禍首”，必將“深刻地改變”這個國家。

報告稱：“脫歐的經(jīng)濟影響或?qū)⑹褂鏊傧陆担顿Y減少，公共財政狀況惡化，給英國經(jīng)濟與生活標準帶來嚴重的后果。”

“肯定需要做出一些令人痛苦的權衡取舍。預計脫歐公投將使經(jīng)濟增速更低，投資率更糟糕，公共財政弱化?！?

該研究所還預測，英國的人口結構將發(fā)生改變，人口老齡化將會加速。根據(jù)經(jīng)濟合作與發(fā)展組織和英國國家統(tǒng)計局的數(shù)據(jù)，以及其他多項研究的結果，報告預測，到2030年，英國65歲以上人口將比2015年增加30%，而85歲以上人口將增加約一倍。

一方面，人口老齡化將給公共機構帶來壓力，例如國家醫(yī)療服務體系，而另一方面，工作人口將保持相對穩(wěn)定，僅增加不足5%。

此外， 工作的性質(zhì)預計也將發(fā)生變化。隨著自動化水平的提高和數(shù)字經(jīng)濟的普及，數(shù)以百萬計的零售和制造業(yè)崗位將會消失，收入不平等會進一步加劇。

盡管英國所面臨的人口與經(jīng)濟挑戰(zhàn)并非個案，但脫離歐盟可能導致新的貿(mào)易壁壘，而這或?qū)⑹褂㈡^進一步貶值，進而增加生活成本。報告稱，到2030年，英國家庭平均年收入將比英國留在歐盟時減少1,700英鎊，而低收入家庭將受到最大的影響。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

作者：Joseph Hincks

譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

The Institute of Public Policy Research (IPPR), which authored the report — Future Proof: Britain in the 2020s — described Brexit as "the firing gun on a decade of disruption" that would “profoundly reshape" the country.

"The economic implications of Brexit are likely to put the country on a lower growth, lower investment trajectory, worsening the public finances, with important consequences for the UK’s economy and living standards," it said.

"Painful trade-offs are almost certain. Growth is expected to be lower, investment rates worse, and the public finances weaker as a result of Brexit.”

Among other findings, the IPPR predicted a changing demographic for the U.K., with the population aging sharply. On the basis of OEDC and Office of National Statistics (ONS) data — and the findings of numerous other researchers — the report forecast that by 2030 the U.K. population would be comprised of 30% more over-65s and around double the amount of over-85s, compared with 2015 figures.

While the aging population is expected to heap pressure onto public institutions such as the National Health Service, the working age population will remain relatively constant, rising by less than 5%.

The nature of work, too, is expected to change. Increased automation and the digital economy will nix millions of retail and manufacturing jobs and income inequalities will become more pronounced.

While the demographic and economic challenges faced by Britain are not unique, leaving the E.U. is likely to entail new trade barriers, which are expected to drive down the value of the currency and increase costs. By 2030, the average British household will have ￡1,700 per year less than they would have if the country had retained membership of the E.U., the report found. Low-income households, it said, would be hit the hardest.