2017年1月15日星期日，瑞士警方經(jīng)過(guò)位于達(dá)沃斯的會(huì)議中心。一年一度的世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇（WEF）將在此舉辦。1月17日-20日，來(lái)自世界各地的國(guó)家領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人、具有影響力的企業(yè)高管、銀行家和決策者，將出席第47屆達(dá)沃斯世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇（WEF）。

看來(lái)世界上最具影響力的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者，開始日益擔(dān)心世界上最有權(quán)勢(shì)的領(lǐng)袖。這種擔(dān)憂甚至超過(guò)了氣候變化和金融恐慌，比如歐元的崩潰。

據(jù)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇（World Economic Forum）的一項(xiàng)最新調(diào)查顯示，大規(guī)模殺傷性武器成為全球領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者最擔(dān)心的問(wèn)題。而且，這還是在特朗普于推特上表示開展新一輪軍備競(jìng)賽的可能性之前的調(diào)查結(jié)果。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇進(jìn)行該項(xiàng)調(diào)查已經(jīng)有12個(gè)年頭，調(diào)查的對(duì)象為該組織750位成員，包括CEO、領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人和各領(lǐng)域的專家。該組織將在本周開始的達(dá)沃斯年度會(huì)議前一晚公布調(diào)查結(jié)果。

調(diào)查的時(shí)間為去年9月和10月初。

在調(diào)查結(jié)果所附的一份報(bào)告中，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇寫道，民族主義的崛起和世界強(qiáng)國(guó)之間的合作減少，將增加全球沖突的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

大規(guī)模殺傷性武器之前也曾進(jìn)入過(guò)調(diào)查的榜單，但卻從未成為在次年潛在影響力最大的感知風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。去年，大規(guī)模殺傷性武器為世界領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人認(rèn)為的第二大威脅，僅次于氣候變化。不過(guò)，氣候變化依舊是一項(xiàng)重要的威脅。在全球領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者眼中的前五大威脅中，其他四個(gè)均與氣候變化有關(guān)。威脅最大的是極端氣象事件，其次分別是用水危機(jī)、重大自然災(zāi)害和氣候變化努力未能發(fā)揮作用。

與過(guò)去幾年的另外一項(xiàng)重要區(qū)別在于：對(duì)于一些金融震蕩對(duì)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響的擔(dān)憂不復(fù)存在。從2007年至2014年開始調(diào)查的前八年，“資產(chǎn)價(jià)格崩盤”或金融危機(jī)一直是調(diào)查中的頭號(hào)威脅。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇的成員更關(guān)注經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題。但在今年的調(diào)查中，對(duì)于市場(chǎng)的擔(dān)憂基本消失。不論潛在影響力還是發(fā)生概率統(tǒng)計(jì)，沒(méi)有任何一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題，成為2017年世界領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人眼中的前五大威脅。這是自從調(diào)查開始以來(lái)，經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題首次沒(méi)有進(jìn)入這兩個(gè)榜單。在2009年和2010年，世界領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人認(rèn)為可能當(dāng)時(shí)的世界產(chǎn)生最大影響的前五大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)中，經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題占據(jù)了四席。

沒(méi)有對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題的擔(dān)憂，表明經(jīng)過(guò)金融危機(jī)之后的一系列改革，銀行和金融市場(chǎng)似乎變得更有彈性。這也可能代表了去年各種世界重大意外事件沒(méi)有給市場(chǎng)造成震動(dòng)之后，世界市場(chǎng)的一種自滿情緒。

今年，世界領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人似乎更擔(dān)心的一個(gè)問(wèn)題是，與之前幾年相比，越來(lái)越多更重視國(guó)內(nèi)問(wèn)題的政客上臺(tái)掌權(quán)。事實(shí)上，今年達(dá)沃斯論壇的主題就是負(fù)責(zé)任的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力。

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇在年度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)報(bào)告中這樣寫道：“隨著技術(shù)、人口與氣候壓力加劇制度失敗的危險(xiǎn)，世界強(qiáng)國(guó)之間的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)和安全努力的崩潰，讓國(guó)際制度變得更加脆弱，使整體繁榮與生存面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

Swiss police walk past the Congress Center, the venue for the World Economic Forum (WEF), in Davos, Switzerland, on Sunday, Jan. 15, 2017. World leaders, influential executives, bankers and policy makers attend the 47th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos from Jan. 17-20.

Some of the world's most powerful leaders are growing more concerned, it seems, about the world's most powerful leaders. More so, in fact, than climate change and financial panics, like a collapse of the euro.

Weapons of mass destruction now ranks as the No. 1 concern of global leaders, according to a new survey from the World Economic Forum. And that was before Trump tweeted about the possibility of a new arms race. It's the 12th year that the World Economic Forum has published the survey, which polls 750 of the group's members, including CEOs and leaders and experts in various fields. The organization publishes the survey on the eve of its annual confab in Davos, which kicks off this week.

The survey was conducted in September and early October.

In a report that accompanied the survey results, the World Economic Forum wrote that a rise of nationalism and less cooperation among world powers was raising the risks of global conflicts.

Weapons of mass destruction have come up as a concern before on the survey. But they have never ranked as the biggest perceived risk in terms of potential impact in the immediate year about which the world leaders were surveyed. Last year, WMDs were the second biggest concern of world leaders behind climate change. Nonetheless, climate change remains a major worry. Of the top five worries of global leaders, the other four are related to climate change. Among those, extreme weather conditions was the No. 1 concern, followed by water crisis, major natural disasters, and the failure of climate change efforts to make a difference.

Another big difference than in past years: The lack of concern about some sort of financial shock to the global economy. For the first eight years of the survey, from 2007 to 2014, "asset price collapse" or financial crisis ranked as the No. 1 concern on the survey. The WEF crowd is more focused on economic issues. Nonetheless, in this year's survey, concerns about markets have largely disappeared. Not a single economic issue made it in to either the top 5 concerns of world leaders for 2017 in either the potential biggest impact category or likeliest to happen. It was the first year in the survey's existence that an economic issue didn't show up in either list. In both 2009 and 2010, world leaders put down economic issues as four of their five biggest risks that could have the largest impacts on the world in that year.

The lack of concern about economic issues could reflect that fact that banks and financial markets do seem more resilient following reforms that were made after the financial crisis. It could also signal complacency about world markets following a year in which major world surprises failed to jolt markets.

Instead, this year, it appears world leaders are concerned that the rise to power of a growing number of politicians that seemed to be more focused on domestic issues than in recent years. Indeed, the theme of this years annual conference in Davos is responsible leadership.

"As technological, demographic and climate pressures intensify the danger of systems failure, competition among world powers and fragmentation of security efforts makes the international system more fragile, placing collective prosperity and survival at risk," the WEF wrote in its annual risk report.