每年，在我們措手不及的情況下，都會有一系列的事件震動全球經(jīng)濟(jì)。很少有預(yù)言者預(yù)測到英國會在2016年公投脫歐，而在未來幾年，這一決定可能會對全球貿(mào)易產(chǎn)生重要影響。而且多數(shù)民調(diào)和專家均未能預(yù)測唐納德·特朗普會在美國總統(tǒng)大選中勝出，這已經(jīng)是眾所周知的事情。

盡管如此，細(xì)心的觀察者未來還是會發(fā)現(xiàn)許多影響人類世界的經(jīng)濟(jì)趨勢。比如在特朗普執(zhí)政期間，美國將重新采取財(cái)政刺激政策，或美聯(lián)儲加快加息的步伐等。下面是今年值得關(guān)注的五個(gè)趨勢。

1. 歐洲繼續(xù)分裂

Every year brings its share of events that take us by surprise and shake up the global economy. Few prognosticators saw Britain voting to leave the European Union in 2016, though the decision will likely have important implications for global trade in the coming years. And it almost goes without saying that most polls and pundits failed to anticipate Donald Trump's election victory in the U.S.

That said, many of the economic trends that shape our world can be spotted ahead of time by careful observers. Whether it's the return of fiscal stimulus under a Trump administration, or the Federal Reserve's plans to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes, here are 5 trends to focus on this year.

Europe Continues to Unwind

假如出人意料的英國脫歐公投結(jié)果是歐盟唯一的問題，那么歐洲的決策者和歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)的利益相關(guān)者可以高枕無憂了。但高頻經(jīng)濟(jì)（High Frequency Economics）的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家卡爾·溫伯格卻認(rèn)為，事實(shí)上，英國脫離歐盟可能是歐洲最不必?fù)?dān)心的問題。他指出，意大利最近的公投結(jié)果，再次確認(rèn)了民粹主義的崛起和反歐洲情緒的出現(xiàn)，顯示出整個(gè)歐洲項(xiàng)目的脆弱。

目前尚不確定意大利將在何時(shí)舉行下一次大選（最晚將在2018年2月舉行），但公投結(jié)果表明，意大利支持統(tǒng)一歐洲的主流政黨正在迅速喪失選民的支持。溫伯格在最近的一篇分析報(bào)告中寫道：“如果意大利退出歐元區(qū)甚至脫離歐盟，所產(chǎn)生的經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融影響將使歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退。”他認(rèn)為，解除意大利銀行對歐盟其他國家的義務(wù)，將引發(fā)金融恐慌。

2.中國增長速度持續(xù)放緩

If the surprising Brexit vote were E only problem, European policy makers and stakeholders in the continent's economy could rest easy. But Britain's exit from the EU could be the least of its worries, according to Carl Weinberg, chief economist with High Frequency Economics. He argues that a recent referendum in Italy reaffirmed the appeal of populism and anti-European sentiment, showing just how fragile the entire European project is.

It's not clear when Italy's next elections will be held (the latest would be February 2018), but the referendum results suggest that mainstream parties that favor a unified Europe are losing support fast. "If Italy moves out of the Euro Zone and away from the European Union, the economic and financial implications will throw European economies into recession," he writes in a recent analyst note, arguing that the process of unwinding Italian banks' obligations to the rest of the EU could spark a financial panic.

China Continues to Slow

2017年，中國國家主席習(xí)近平將開始其首個(gè)任期的最后一年，而作為世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的管理者，他將面臨諸多挑戰(zhàn)。中國政府為未來五年制定的增長目標(biāo)為6.5%，但近期的實(shí)踐證明，除非堅(jiān)持可持續(xù)的發(fā)展方式，否則實(shí)現(xiàn)甚至超過這一目標(biāo)，也無法給中國帶來穩(wěn)定的經(jīng)濟(jì)。

自金融危機(jī)以來，中國的決策者們通過為企業(yè)部門提供低息貸款，投資基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和中國強(qiáng)大的出口部門，支撐了國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。但這些貸款逐漸集中到了低生產(chǎn)率投資，導(dǎo)致總體債務(wù)大幅增加。據(jù)國際貨幣基金組織（International Monetary Fund）最近的分析披露，“中國總體信貸的年均增長率達(dá)到了約20%，遠(yuǎn)高于名義GDP增長率?！边@并非實(shí)現(xiàn)未來經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的可持續(xù)戰(zhàn)略，在新的一年，習(xí)近平主席必須進(jìn)一步推動經(jīng)濟(jì)再平衡，向消費(fèi)者支出領(lǐng)域轉(zhuǎn)型，只有這樣，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)才能繼續(xù)作為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的發(fā)動機(jī)。

3. 美國進(jìn)入特朗普經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)代。

President Xi Jinping will begin the final year of his first term in 2017, and the challenges he faces managing the world's second largest economy are manifold. China's government is aiming for growth rates of 6.5% over the next five years, but recent experience has shown that reaching or even exceeding these goals will not lead to a stable Chinese economy unless those targets are hit in a sustainable manner.

Since the financial crisis, policymakers have propped up growth by supporting the corporate sector with cheap credit to invest in infrastructure and China's formidable export sector. But that credit has been increasingly funnelled into less productive investments, leading overall debt to soar. According to a recent analysis by the International Monetary Fund, "overall credit growth has been averaging around 20% per year, much higher than nominal GDP growth." That's not a sustainable strategy for future economic growth, and President Xi must do more to rebalance the economy towards consumer spending in the coming year if the Chinese economy is going to continue to power global growth going forward.

It's Trump's Economy Now

在地球的另一端，美國新任總統(tǒng)唐納德·特朗普，將開始推行其實(shí)質(zhì)性的改革項(xiàng)目。這些改革包括減稅和增加基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施支出等，獨(dú)立分析師們認(rèn)為，這些措施將使醫(yī)保和社會保障等政府福利支出大幅增長，與此同時(shí)，也將導(dǎo)致美國聯(lián)邦政府的赤字迅速增加。

基于新政府設(shè)計(jì)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資結(jié)構(gòu)的方式，這些支出有可能給未來經(jīng)濟(jì)增長帶來福音，而且考慮到當(dāng)前的低利率，甚至可以以較低的成本來獲得增長。然而，這些決策不止基于經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面，同樣存在政治方面的考慮。國會山的共和黨領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人與白宮主人之間的權(quán)力之爭，將是經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測者們密切關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)，因?yàn)樽罱K結(jié)果將決定共和黨傳統(tǒng)的“小政府”的觀點(diǎn)和減稅主張，能否勝過特朗普的民粹主義沖動。

4. 2017年也將是珍妮特·耶倫的經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)代

Halfway around the world the new American president, Donald Trump, will be embarking on his own substantial reform projects. One such effort will be a program of tax cuts and infrastructure spending, which independent analysts say will balloon the federal government's deficit at the same time that spending on entitlements like Medicare and Social Security is on course to soar.

Depending on how the new administration structures its infrastructure investments, that spending could be a boon to growth going forward, and one that could be bought cheaply given today's low interest rates. These decisions, however, will be made based on politics as much as economic fundamentals. The power struggle between Republican leaders on Capitol Hill and the White House will be one that economic forecasters follow closely, as it will determine whether a traditional Republican vision of small government and tax cuts wins out over Trump's populist impulses.

But Also Janet Yellen's

尚未被共和黨控制的一家政府機(jī)構(gòu)是美聯(lián)儲（Federal Reserve）。該獨(dú)立中央銀行的任務(wù)，將是針對新的財(cái)政政策，管理貨幣供應(yīng)。美聯(lián)儲主席珍妮特·耶倫早已預(yù)測將加快加息步伐，而如果美國政府慷慨的財(cái)政支出導(dǎo)致就業(yè)市場過熱，使通脹率顯著高于該央行2%的年度目標(biāo)，耶倫加息的速度還要進(jìn)一步加快。

5. 貿(mào)易仍將是核心問題

The one governmental institution that the Republican Party doesn't control is the Federal Reserve. The independent central bank will be tasked with managing the money supply in reaction to new fiscal policies. Already predicting an acceleration in the pace of interest rate increases, Fed Chair Janet Yellen may be forced to move faster in that regard if generous fiscal spending overheats the labor market and leads to inflation significantly above the central bank's 2% annual target.

Trade Will Remain at the Fore

過去70年來，最穩(wěn)定的全球政策立場是穩(wěn)步推動貿(mào)易自由化。然而，那些容易實(shí)現(xiàn)的清除貿(mào)易壁壘的目標(biāo)早已被實(shí)現(xiàn)。2016年向世人證明，富有國家的選民們認(rèn)為，有些政策正在逐漸削弱他們的收入增長潛力，所得到的卻是并未感覺更廉價(jià)的商品，而少數(shù)精英們的薪酬卻在日益增長。他們將不再忍受這些政策。

全世界都將關(guān)注美國當(dāng)選總統(tǒng)特朗普會為全球貿(mào)易定下怎樣的基調(diào)。他會退出北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定（NAFTA），還是會致力于重塑與中國的貿(mào)易，為此甚至不惜與世界貿(mào)易組織（World Trade Organization）的規(guī)則發(fā)生碰撞？特朗普甚至有可能在上文所述的歐元區(qū)巨變中插上一腳，因?yàn)樗呀?jīng)表示，愿意盡快與英國談判貿(mào)易協(xié)定，這將使歐盟成員國將脫離歐盟視為更有吸引力的選擇。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

The most stable global policy stance of the past 70 years has been the steady march toward ever-freer trade. But the low-hanging fruit of removing trade barriers has long since been picked. And 2016 showed us that the electorates in the wealthy world are no longer going to brook policies that they feel sap their potential income growth in return for imperceptibly cheaper products and much higher pay for a select few.

All eyes will be on President-elect Trump as he sets the tone for global trade. Will he move to pull out of NAFTA, or will he set his sights on reshaping trade with China, possibly running afoul of World Trade Organization rules? Trump may even play a role in the aforementioned Eurozone drama, as he has indicated his willingness to quickly negotiate a trade deal with Britain, making the option of leaving the EU a more enticing ones for states that continue to be members.