麥當(dāng)勞推出新款巨無霸,但成效甚微
麥當(dāng)勞近期宣布,旗艦產(chǎn)品巨無霸將推出最新款。跟之前換菜單差不多的是,這次也是為了試圖提升1.4萬家美國門店的銷售。但不光是麥當(dāng)勞,從近來快餐連鎖店的例子來看,僅僅通過更新菜單提升銷售數(shù)字或股價的可能性非常小。 最近,麥當(dāng)勞公布了一季度財報,2015年3月史蒂夫·伊斯特布魯克接任首席執(zhí)行官以來,麥當(dāng)勞一直在調(diào)整菜單。目前麥當(dāng)勞的早餐全天供應(yīng),還推出了McPick超值2美元套餐,迅速解決了股問題息。2015年10月推出全天早餐不久,麥當(dāng)勞當(dāng)年四季報顯示同店銷售增長了5.7%,到2016年年初也一直保持良好勢頭。投資者們反響熱情,股價從2015年8月的每股91美元推升至2016年5月的每股132美元,也是有史以來高點(diǎn)。 但興奮之情并未持續(xù)多久,2016年二季度銷售就沒有達(dá)到分析師的預(yù)期。雖然三季報數(shù)字比預(yù)期強(qiáng)勁,但四季度數(shù)字并不會很好看。野村證券旗下電子交易平臺Instinet調(diào)查了168個地區(qū)22家快餐連鎖,問卷結(jié)果顯示一年來同店銷售額預(yù)計會下降1.2%。麥當(dāng)勞的股價已從高點(diǎn)回落,近期的收盤價略高于每股122美元。 新款巨無霸面世后,最初可能會讓喜歡嘗新的消費(fèi)者興奮,提振銷售收入。人們對新款好奇可能會變成股價走高。(雖然新鮮元素的吸引力可能沒那么大:新款分為兩種,樣子都跟原來的巨無霸一樣,尺寸小一些的叫Mac Jr.,尺寸大些的叫Grand Mac。) 但從其他快餐連鎖店的例子看,新品帶動銷售可能持續(xù)不了多久。2012年塔可鐘推出Doritos Locos tacos后大賣,僅第一年就賣出了10億份。但到2014年銷售額就再次回落。2010年肯德基在菜單里高調(diào)添加了雙層炸雞堡,頭三個月就賣出了1000萬份,但沒過多久也銷售疲軟,最后只好下架。(塔可鐘和肯德基都是百勝集團(tuán)旗下品牌。) 其實(shí)對快餐連鎖店來說,菜單一成不變問題并不嚴(yán)重,消費(fèi)者日新月異的口味才是最大的風(fēng)險。現(xiàn)在消費(fèi)者更喜歡光顧“休閑快餐廳”,更強(qiáng)調(diào)高品質(zhì)食材以及有特色的店內(nèi)氛圍,例如Shake Shack和Five Guys等。壓力之下,快餐巨頭們只好硬著頭皮推出更新鮮、更健康的產(chǎn)品。 伊斯特布魯克一直推動改進(jìn)食品質(zhì)量,吸引消費(fèi)者回到麥當(dāng)勞。目前麥當(dāng)勞已經(jīng)減少使用人工防腐劑,兒童餐里剔除了一些抗生素,面包里也不再使用高果糖玉米糖漿,還有其他一些改進(jìn)舉措。 不過種種調(diào)整是否真能吸引消費(fèi)者走進(jìn)麥當(dāng)勞還是個未知數(shù)。由于今年去快餐廳消費(fèi)的人流量預(yù)計會持平,對于十分清楚自己口味的消費(fèi)者來說,菜單調(diào)整意義不是很大。 此外,麥當(dāng)勞的股東還多了一重?fù)?dān)心。本月早些時候,麥當(dāng)勞宣布以17億美元價格出售了中國大陸和香港業(yè)務(wù)的控股權(quán)。新合資公司里麥當(dāng)勞股份占比20%,在目前2400家餐廳基礎(chǔ)上,未來五年將開設(shè)1500家新店。伊斯特布魯克解釋該交易時強(qiáng)調(diào),新的合作方非常強(qiáng)大,可以幫助麥當(dāng)勞進(jìn)一步深入中國市場。即便真是如此,麥當(dāng)勞也犧牲了相當(dāng)多一塊未來收入。 (財富中文網(wǎng)) 譯者:夏林 |
McDonald’s announced recently that it will begin offering modified versions of its flagship burger, the Big Mac. Like many previous menu changes at the Golden Arches, this one (which was first unveiled in November) comes as the company continues to try to drum up new sales across its 14,000 U.S. locations. But recent history, not just at McDonald's but at other fast-food chains, suggests that it's highly unlikely that such changes will have a lasting effect on either its sales figures or its stock. The company, which report its quarterly earnings recently, has been trying to revamp its menu since Steve Easterbrook signed on as CEO in March 2015. Since then, McDonald’s has started serving breakfast all day and introduced the value menu McPick 2, moves that quickly paid dividends. Immediately after the launch of all-day breakfast in October 2015, the company posted a 5.7% increase in same-store sales for the fourth quarter of that year, a positive trend that continued on into early 2016. Investors took notice, bumping the stock price from $91 in late August 2015 to an all-time high of $132 in early May 2016. But the excitement didn't endure, and sales for the second quarter of 2016 missed analysts’ expectations. Though McDonald’s posted stronger-than-expected third-quarter numbers, its coming earnings report may not be so great. In a recent survey conducted by Noruma-Instinet that polled 22 franchisees, accounting for 168 locations in all, same-store sales were estimated to be down by 1.2% year over year. The company’s share price (mcd) has dipped since its high; the stock closed recently at just over $122. The debut of new Big Macs may bring some initial excitement and sales among consumers curious to try the new novelty. That curiosity could translate into a bump in the stock price. (Though the novelty factor may not be that high: The new variations are the Mac Jr., which is just like a Big Mac, except smaller, and the Grand Mac, which is bigger.) But upticks in sales from new products tend to be short-lived, as other fast-food chains have found. Taco Bell introduced Doritos Locos tacos in 2012 to great success, with 1 billion of them sold in the first year alone. But by 2014, sales were waning again. KFC, which added the Double Down to its menu to much fanfare in 2010, sold 10 million of the sandwiches in its first three months, but discontinued it later on due to lagging sales. (Both Taco Bell and KFC are subsidiaries of Yum! Brands (yum).) Stale menus may not be as big a threat to fast food chains as changing tastes are. More consumers have moved towards frequenting "fast casual restaurants" that boast higher-quality ingredients and a different in-store atmosphere, such as Shake Shack and Five Guys. In response, the fast food industry’s major players are all engaging in an arms race for fresher and healthier products. Easterbrook has championed improvements in food quality in an effort to entice eaters back to McDonald’s. The company has cut the use of artificial preservatives, eliminated certain antibiotics from chicken products, and eliminated high fructose corn syrup from its buns, among several other changes. Whether or not the changes in food quality will get more people to step inside a McDonald’s remains to be seen, though. Still, since total foot traffic to fast food restaurants is expected to remain relatively flat this year, all the changes may not end up making much of a difference to existing customers who know what they like. McDonald's shareholders have one other issue to worry about. Earlier this month, McDonald’s announced it had struck a deal to sell a controlling stake in its China and Hong Kong operations to a Beijing-based company for $1.7 billion. The move leaves McDonald’s with a 20% share in the venture, which is expected to open 1,500 new locations over the next five years, on top of the 2,400 restaurants already there. Easterbrook rationalized the deal by stressing that the company’s new partners have unique knowledge that will allow for greater penetration into the market. While that may be true, McDonald’s has sacrificed a great deal of future revenue. |