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超越5G,移動(dòng)世界尋求自我重塑

超越5G,移動(dòng)世界尋求自我重塑

路透社 2017-02-28
數(shù)十年來,電信公司一直希望打破價(jià)格下降的趨勢和消費(fèi)者監(jiān)管的束縛,在本地市場發(fā)展互聯(lián)網(wǎng)服務(wù),結(jié)果卻總是在突然崛起的新型全球公司面前落敗,不免有淪為管道運(yùn)營商的趨勢。面對這種困境,他們都準(zhǔn)備將自己改造成一家互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè),以擺脫電信行業(yè)低增長的束縛,并借助5G技術(shù)來自我改造。

為了逃離價(jià)格下降和嚴(yán)格監(jiān)管的循環(huán),從Vimpelcom到西班牙電信(Telefonica),各大電信運(yùn)營商都準(zhǔn)備將自己改造成一家互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè),以擺脫電信行業(yè)低增長的束縛。

本周在巴塞羅那召開的世界移動(dòng)通信大會(huì)(Mobile World Congress)上,各大電信公司將在不同程度上認(rèn)同這樣一種觀點(diǎn):數(shù)十年來,基于出售數(shù)以百萬計(jì)的數(shù)據(jù)包的可預(yù)測商業(yè)模式,正在失去增長動(dòng)力。

在光鮮亮麗的新手機(jī)和圍繞網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù)實(shí)現(xiàn)的激烈爭論背后,此次歐洲最大的年度技術(shù)大會(huì)上,我們將會(huì)看到業(yè)內(nèi)領(lǐng)先的電信公司紛紛開始影響深遠(yuǎn)的業(yè)務(wù)變革。

西班牙電信將推出其稱為“第4平臺(tái)”的廣泛計(jì)劃,目的是幫助消費(fèi)者和企業(yè)客戶加強(qiáng)對數(shù)據(jù)的控制,而不是將這項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)拱手讓給谷歌(Google)、Facebook和亞馬遜(Amazon)等網(wǎng)絡(luò)巨頭。

俄羅斯及新興市場電信運(yùn)營商Vimpelcom將打破電信業(yè)務(wù)的許多規(guī)則,將自身重新塑造為一家科技公司,進(jìn)入快速增長的信息應(yīng)用領(lǐng)域。

美國電信業(yè)巨頭美國電話電報(bào)公司(AT&T)為實(shí)現(xiàn)業(yè)務(wù)多元化,已經(jīng)完成了一系列大規(guī)模交易,包括以670億美元收購Direct TV,其以1,100億美元收購時(shí)代華納(Time Warner)的交易也在等待批準(zhǔn)。

安理律師事務(wù)所(Allen & Overy)全球電信業(yè)務(wù)負(fù)責(zé)人湯姆·勒文律師表示:“電信運(yùn)營商所面臨的監(jiān)管與定價(jià)壓力,迫使他們不得不轉(zhuǎn)向相近領(lǐng)域,尋找新的收入和利潤來源?!?

“但對于具體做法,業(yè)內(nèi)并沒有達(dá)成共識?!?

另外,電信行業(yè)在結(jié)構(gòu)上能否應(yīng)對巨大的變革,也是一個(gè)未知數(shù)。數(shù)十年來,電信公司一直希望打破消費(fèi)者監(jiān)管的束縛,在本地市場發(fā)展互聯(lián)網(wǎng)服務(wù),結(jié)果卻總是在突然崛起的新型全球公司面前落敗。

俄羅斯實(shí)驗(yàn)室

這些巨變出現(xiàn)的時(shí)機(jī),恰逢電信公司準(zhǔn)備提供新的網(wǎng)絡(luò)。新網(wǎng)絡(luò)不僅可以滿足手機(jī)上加速增長的數(shù)據(jù)使用,還能夠滿足汽車、工廠、辦公室甚至農(nóng)田里的數(shù)據(jù)需求。新一代5G網(wǎng)絡(luò)將為電信公司提供新的業(yè)務(wù)選擇,但同時(shí)也會(huì)面臨計(jì)算機(jī)、互聯(lián)網(wǎng)以及其他擁有數(shù)字計(jì)劃的行業(yè)參與者日益激烈的競爭。

在俄羅斯,由于傳統(tǒng)電信業(yè)務(wù)的壓力、西方的經(jīng)濟(jì)制裁,以及政府規(guī)定導(dǎo)致硅谷巨頭不得不化身為規(guī)模更小的本地企業(yè),為企業(yè)的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)造了空間,因此對于希望改造成互聯(lián)網(wǎng)市場參與者的電信公司來說,俄羅斯成為了世界上最先進(jìn)的實(shí)驗(yàn)室。

俄羅斯第三大電信運(yùn)營商Vimpelcom,正在對業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)行自上而下的大規(guī)模改革,同時(shí)準(zhǔn)備加大在流媒體音樂和在線出租車服務(wù)等領(lǐng)域的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)合作。此外,公司還將孟加拉國、阿爾及利亞等新興市場作為重點(diǎn),該公司服務(wù)的手機(jī)用戶數(shù)量排在世界第六位。

俄羅斯第二大網(wǎng)絡(luò)提供商Megafon收購了姊妹公司Mail.ru的控股股份——該筆交易與威瑞森(Verizon)收購Facebook的作用異曲同工。公司還計(jì)劃提供社交媒體網(wǎng)站VKontakte的最新移動(dòng)版本。Mail.ru是俄羅斯重量級的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司。

到目前為止,俄羅斯最大的電信公司MTS尚沒有動(dòng)作,但公司高管暗示,他們也認(rèn)為互聯(lián)網(wǎng)服務(wù)才是公司未來的根本所在。

與此同時(shí),西班牙電信的一位資深人士透露,公司認(rèn)為其“第4平臺(tái)”戰(zhàn)略,能夠促進(jìn)增長,使公司更積極地應(yīng)對全球互聯(lián)網(wǎng)巨頭的競爭,同時(shí)也是現(xiàn)有業(yè)務(wù)的一次合理進(jìn)化。

這位知情人士稱,該戰(zhàn)略的基礎(chǔ)是公司長期以來對通信服務(wù)的投資,在歐洲和拉丁美洲廣泛的地理覆蓋,以及除了基本通信連接外提供有利可圖的高級服務(wù)的努力,而且并不需要規(guī)模龐大的額外投資。

“現(xiàn)在是該向‘第4平臺(tái)’轉(zhuǎn)變的時(shí)候了,即數(shù)據(jù)時(shí)代。這是西班牙電信(新)的股權(quán)故事?!彼岬搅斯緸樘岣呃麧櫬仕龅呐?,如支持客戶分析海量數(shù)據(jù),提高業(yè)務(wù)的智能化水平等。

其他電信公司采取的措施較為保守。

另外一家新興市場運(yùn)營商挪威電信(Telenor)涉足了數(shù)據(jù)分析領(lǐng)域,而沃達(dá)豐(Vodafone)通過2014年收購Cobra Automotive,正在向工業(yè)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)和聯(lián)網(wǎng)汽車應(yīng)用等新興領(lǐng)域進(jìn)軍。

電信公司是否具備互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)的DNA?

許多電信公司并不看好同行所采取的部分侵略性的措施,尤其是關(guān)于基于客戶數(shù)據(jù)商業(yè)化的商業(yè)模式。

歐洲收入最高的電信運(yùn)營商德國電信(Deutsche Telekom)認(rèn)為,這種商業(yè)模式在極其注重隱私的德國是行不通的。相反,公司將中心放在了新興的互聯(lián)工業(yè)領(lǐng)域和云計(jì)算。

德國電信的主要增長策略可能是留住美國市場。公司在美國通過提供無限制數(shù)據(jù)套餐和國際漫游數(shù)據(jù)包,引領(lǐng)了移動(dòng)行業(yè)的改革。通過積極營銷,T-Mobile已經(jīng)從中獲益,并讓競爭對手們付出了代價(jià),目前其規(guī)模已經(jīng)接近德國電信的核心德國業(yè)務(wù)。

而法國維旺迪(Vivendi)在過去十年間開始整合電信與傳媒資產(chǎn)時(shí)的不幸遭遇,則為押注電信公司改造的投資者敲響了警鐘。

對于習(xí)慣于可預(yù)測現(xiàn)金流和穩(wěn)定監(jiān)管界限的電信運(yùn)營商來說,主要問題可能出在文化方面:多數(shù)公司并沒有進(jìn)行這類激烈轉(zhuǎn)型的勇氣。

勒文表示:“解決如何在不降低用戶可靠性預(yù)期的情況下讓企業(yè)家的DNA發(fā)揮作用,以及確認(rèn)機(jī)構(gòu)股東的財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)期等,并不是一項(xiàng)簡單的任務(wù)?!崩瘴乃傅氖墙】档墓上l(fā)放,這依舊是電信行業(yè)吸引投資者的主要因素之一。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

Seeking to escape a cycle of falling prices and tight regulation, big telecom operators from Vimpelcom to Telefonica are set to reinvent themselves as Internet players to escape the industry's straitjacket of low growth.

This week's Mobile World Congress in Barcelona will feature phone companies in various stages of acceptance that the industry's predictable, decades-old business model based on selling data packages by the millions is running out of steam.

Beneath the facade of shiny new phones and dusty debates over network technical implementations, Europe's largest annual technology fair will see top phone companies parading far-reaching business makeovers.

Spain's Telefonica is set to introduce a broad plan it calls the "4th Platform" to help both consumer and business customers keep greater control over their data rather than giving it away to web giants Google, Facebook, and Amazon.

Russian and emerging markets operator Vimpelcom is tearing up many parts of the telecom rule book to remake itself as a tech player in the fast-growing world of messaging apps.

U.S. telecom giant AT&T has inked a series of huge deals to diversify by acquiring Direct TV for $67 billion and is awaiting approval to buy Time Warner for another $110 billion.

"Regulatory and pricing pressure on telecom operators forces them to look to adjacent areas for new sources of revenue and margins," said attorney Tom Levine, head of Allen & Overy's global telecoms practice.

"There isn't a consensus on how to do this."

It's also an open question whether the industry is structurally capable of big change. Telcos have dreamed for decades of breaking free of the shackles of consumer regulation and branching out into Internet services in their local markets, only to be consistently beaten by newer, global upstarts.

RUSSIAN LABORATORY

These dramatic changes come as telcos brace to offer new networks ready to handle not just spiraling data use on phones but in cars, in factories and offices and even crop fields. The new generation of 5G networks will provide them new business options but also spells mounting competition from computer, Internet, and industrial players with digital plans of their own.

Russia has emerged as the world's most advanced laboratory for telecom companies seeking to reinvent themselves as Internet players, as classic telecom business pressures, Western economic sanctions and government rules that reduce Silicon Valley giants to small local players create space to combine forces.

Vimpelcom, Russia's No.3 operator, has undertaken a top-to-bottom overhaul of its business while gearing up for deeper Internet partnerships with the likes of streaming music and online taxi services. The company also focuses on emerging markets from Bangladesh to Algeria and is the world's sixth largest operator in terms of number of mobile customers served.

Megafon, the No. 2 network provider, has acquired control of sister company Mail.ru, a major Russian Internet player—the Russian equivalent of Verizon buying Facebook—and plans to offer a new mobile version of social media site VKontakte.

Top Russian telecoms player MTS is so far sitting on the sidelines, but its executives have signaled they too believe their long-run future lies in Internet services.

Meanwhile, Telefonica sees its "4th Platform" strategy as a way to stoke faster growth and compete aggressively with globally dominant Internet players while being a logical evolution of existing businesses, a senior company source said.

The strategy builds on its long-standing investments in communications services, its broad geographic reach across Europe and Latin America and efforts to offer advanced money-making services on top of basic communication connections, but does not require making huge new investments, the source said.

"Now is the turn of the fourth platform: the data. That is Telefonica's (new) equity story," the source said of its bid to boost margins by, for example, enabling customers to analyze mountains of data to make their own businesses run smarter.

Other phone companies are taking more modest steps.

Norway's Telenor, another emerging markets operator, has pushed into data analytics, while Vodafone is making inroads in new industrial Internet and connected car applications, through its 2014 acquisition of Cobra Automotive.

DO THEY HAVE THE DNA?

Still, many telecom operators take a dim view of some of the aggressive moves being made by these peers, especially when it comes to business models based on commercializing customer data.

Deutsche Telekom, Europe's largest telecom operator by revenue, sees this as no-go territory in privacy-conscious Germany. Instead, it is focused on making strides into new connected industrial arenas and cloud computing.

Telekom's main growth story is likely to remain the United States where it revolutionized the mobile industry by offering unlimited data plans and international roaming packages. Using aggressive marketing, T-Mobile has gained at the expense of rivals, making it nearly as big Telekom's core German business.

France's Vivendi, which embarked on a grand misadventure last decade to combine telecom and media assets, offers a cautionary tale for investors betting on these new reinvention stories.

For telecom operators used to predictable cash flows and firm regulatory boundaries, the main issue may be cultural: Most just don't have the stomach for such drastic transformation.

"Working out how to bring in that entrepreneurial DNA, without disappointing users' expectations of reliability, and recognizing the financial expectations of institutional shareholders, is not easy," Levine said of healthy dividend payouts which remain the industry's main draw to investors.

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