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致股東年度信，選股大師巴菲特告訴你這件事

Stephen Gandel 2017-03-01

在最近發(fā)布的致股東年度信里，這位“奧馬哈先知”想讓人們知道，他并不是永久持有型投資者，他不僅會(huì)買股票，也會(huì)賣股票，從而獲得豐厚回報(bào)。

世界上最著名的選股大師沃倫·巴菲特想讓所有人都知道他也賣股票。

作為伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司首席執(zhí)行官，巴菲特在上周六公布的致股東年度信件中表示，人們對(duì)他的投資方法一直有些誤解。為了消除誤會(huì)，他甚至在1983年以來信中幾乎沒有變過的一段話上加了一句。

不過，任何追蹤巴菲特今年動(dòng)向的人都應(yīng)該知道他會(huì)賣股票，或者說最近已經(jīng)這么做了。去年，伯克希爾-哈撒韋拋售了美國(guó)電話電報(bào)公司、約翰迪爾和寶潔的股份，價(jià)值超過十億美元。但巴菲特最高調(diào)的售股對(duì)象當(dāng)屬沃爾瑪。伯克希爾對(duì)沃爾瑪?shù)耐顿Y始于2005年，而2016年它幾乎將這家零售巨擘的股份拋售一空。

這些賣出交易讓伯克希爾的證券投資出現(xiàn)了重大調(diào)整。在伯克希爾持股規(guī)模最大的15家公司中，最近一年內(nèi)買進(jìn)的有4家。而前年伯克希爾的15大投資對(duì)象中還沒有新近持有的個(gè)股。

最大持股對(duì)象幾乎不變讓一些人斷言巴菲特是永久持有型投資者。巴菲特說情況并非如此，而且拿出了證據(jù)。在今年的股東信中，巴菲特表示有些個(gè)股他不打算很快賣出，但這并不是一項(xiàng)承諾。他說伯克希爾隨時(shí)都可能賣出手中的任何股票。那個(gè)幾乎一直不變的段落描述的是巴菲特的投資哲學(xué)，這次他在上面加了一句話，以澄清自己的做法。

巴菲特沒有對(duì)沃爾瑪發(fā)表直接評(píng)論，也沒有提及去年大規(guī)模購(gòu)買的股票，其中包括最受媒體關(guān)注的一只，就是斥資67億美元買入的蘋果公司。這筆投資至少已經(jīng)賺了4億美元。在去年伯克希爾的新增主要投資對(duì)象中，蘋果的股份占了一半。在該公司持有的15大個(gè)股中，另外三只新股都是航空股，分別為達(dá)美航空、西南航空和聯(lián)合大陸航空。伯克希爾還向第四家航空公司——美國(guó)航空投入逾10億美元資金，但后者的排名剛好在15大個(gè)股以外。一年前巴菲特手中還沒有任何航空股。

伯克希爾-哈撒韋持有的股票并非都由巴菲特挑選。同時(shí)，巴菲特正在把越來越多的投資決策權(quán)交給最近聘請(qǐng)的兩個(gè)人——托德·康姆斯和特德·惠斯勒。但鑒于投資蘋果的規(guī)模以及伯克希爾買進(jìn)的航空股總量，這些投資背后的那個(gè)人可能就是巴菲特。

說到賣出沃爾瑪?shù)墓善?，一些觀察人士已經(jīng)在巴菲特對(duì)前者競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的評(píng)價(jià)中尋到了端倪——他曾反復(fù)稱贊亞馬遜及其CEO杰夫·貝佐斯。許多人都把伯克希爾拋售沃爾瑪股份解讀為這表明巴菲特不再認(rèn)為大型零售商能夠跟網(wǎng)絡(luò)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手抗衡（巴菲特確實(shí)還持有一些零售商的股票，其中包括Nebraska Furniture Mart）。

伯克希爾證券投資的上述調(diào)整或許消除了近年來一些評(píng)論人士大炒特炒的一個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素。巴菲特近幾年的投資表現(xiàn)顯然出現(xiàn)了滑坡。有些人說，這是因?yàn)椴讼栭L(zhǎng)期持有少數(shù)幾家公司的大量股份，比如經(jīng)營(yíng)模式似乎都面臨重大挑戰(zhàn)的IBM和沃爾瑪。賣出這些股票或許表明巴菲特比以往更愿意調(diào)整自己的證券投資。

情況或許如此。以下是2016年巴菲特砸下重金的新持有對(duì)象（所有數(shù)據(jù)均截至2016年12月31日）：

Warren Buffett, the world’s most famous stock picker, wants everyone to know that he also sells.

In his annual letter to shareholders, which was released on Saturday, Buffett, who is the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, says there has been some misunderstanding about his investment method. He even added a line to a section that has been included nearly unchanged in the letter every year since 1983 to clear up the confusion.

But anyone following Buffett this year should have known that he sells, or has been recently. Last year, Berkshire Hathaway exited billion-dollar-plus stakes in AT&T, Deere, and P&G. But his most high profile stock sale was Walmart. In 2016, Berkshire sold near all of the shares it held of the giant retailer, which Buffett’s company first invested in back in 2005.

All of those sales, led to a major reshuffling of Berkshire’s portfolio. Among Berkshire’s top 15 holdings, four are shares of companies that Berkshire Hathaway didn’t own a year ago. The year before that none of Berkshire’s top holdings were new.

The fact that his top holdings rarely change has led some to declare that Buffett is a buy-and-hold-forever investor. Buffett says that’s not the case—and he provides the proof for his claim. In this year's letter, Buffett says there are some stocks that he doesn’t plan to sell anytime soon, but he says that’s not a commitment. Any stock Berkshire owns could be sold tomorrow, Buffett says. He added a line to the perennial section of the letter that describes Buffett's investment philosophy to clarify his approach.

Buffett did not comment directly on Walmart, or any of his big stock purchases of the past year, including his most headline grabbing one—buying $6.7 billion worth of Apple stock. That investment has already gained at least $400 million. The Apple stock purchases make up half of the new shares that Berkshire has added to its top holdings in the past year. The other three additions to his top 15 holdings are all airlines stocks, including Delta, Southwest Airlines, and United Continental. Berkshire also invested more than $1 billion in a fourth airline stock, American Airlines, which it puts it just out of the company’s top holdings. Buffett did not own shares in any airline carrier a year ago.

Buffett doesn't select every stock that is added to Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio. And increasingly Buffett has been handing over more of the investment decisions to two recent hires Todd Combs and Ted Weschler. But given the size of the Apple investment, and the collective stake Berkshire has taken in the airlines, it is likely that Buffett was behind both of those investments.

When it comes to the Walmart sale, some observers have detected clues in Buffett's comments about one of the retailer's rivals. He has routinely praised Amazon and its CEO Jeff Bezos. Many have interpreted Berkshire's sale of Walmart shares to suggest that Buffett no longer thinks large retailers can compete with online competitors. (Buffett does still own some retailers, including Nebraska Furniture Mart.)

The reshuffling of Berkshire's portfolio may remove a risk that some Berkshire commentators had a made a bigger deal of in recent years. Buffett's investment performance has appeared to cool off in recent years. Some have said that's because Berkshire is stuck holding onto large positions in a small number of companies, like IBM or Walmart that are all seem to be face big challenges to their business models. The stock sales may suggest that Buffett is more willing to shake up his portfolio than it appeared in the past.

That may be the case. Here's the companies Buffett made big new bets on in 2016 (all data is as of Dec. 31, 2016):