對(duì)總統(tǒng)唐納德·特朗普的強(qiáng)烈抗議壯大了民主黨的積極分子隊(duì)伍，但他們剛剛迸發(fā)的這股激情面對(duì)的是嚴(yán)峻的現(xiàn)實(shí)——共和黨仍處于有利位置，從而在2018年的中期選舉中繼續(xù)把權(quán)力握在手里。

雖然共和黨在參議院占據(jù)微弱多數(shù)，但本次中期選舉涉及的席位大多由民主黨把持。這就意味著他們必須狙擊共和黨，特別是在特朗普獲勝的10個(gè)州。

在眾議院，為保持共和黨政治主導(dǎo)地位而劃定的選區(qū)將為共和黨提供支持。在某些情況下，劃分時(shí)專門把大批民主黨支持者納入僅僅幾個(gè)選區(qū)中，從而讓更多的席位向共和黨傾斜。

普林斯頓大學(xué)神經(jīng)學(xué)家、統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)家山姆·王說(shuō)：“民主黨人目前極為氣憤?！彼_發(fā)出了一款統(tǒng)計(jì)模型，用于分析兩黨為自己劃定有利選區(qū)的行為。

然而，王指出，民主黨要想重新在國(guó)會(huì)掌權(quán)，“就得出現(xiàn)極端事件。而問(wèn)題在于，出現(xiàn)了這樣的跡象了嗎？”

為本次中期選舉設(shè)立的民主黨眾議院選舉委員會(huì)瞄準(zhǔn)了共和黨在24個(gè)州的59個(gè)眾議員席位，其中涉及民主黨總統(tǒng)候選人希拉里·克林頓擊敗特朗普的23個(gè)選區(qū)以及近年來(lái)共和黨從民主黨手中奪走的其他一些選區(qū)。

民主黨已經(jīng)開始在其中的20個(gè)選區(qū)安排全職有償組織者。該委員會(huì)表示，民主黨此前從未在這樣的初期階段采取過(guò)此類行動(dòng)。

今年1月，該委員會(huì)爭(zhēng)取到的新支持者陡然增加了67.5萬(wàn)人，其中許多人都參加了美國(guó)各地反對(duì)特朗普政策的抗議活動(dòng)。這股能量能否保持到2018年仍有待觀察。

共和黨眾議院選舉委員會(huì)發(fā)言人杰西·亨特把民主黨的樂(lè)觀情緒稱為“白日夢(mèng)”。亨特指出，民主黨對(duì)2016年的國(guó)會(huì)選舉也曾有很高的期望，但在他們瞄準(zhǔn)的15名首次當(dāng)選的共和黨眾議員中，落敗的只有4人。

歷史看來(lái)站在民主黨一邊。南北戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)以來(lái)，共和黨在中期選舉初選中全面落敗，只獲勝過(guò)兩次——一次是在1934年，當(dāng)時(shí)總統(tǒng)富蘭克林·羅斯福正在帶領(lǐng)美國(guó)熬過(guò)大蕭條；另一次是在2002年，時(shí)任總統(tǒng)的喬治·W·布什正帶著美國(guó)對(duì)2001年的恐怖分子活動(dòng)進(jìn)行反擊。

在貝拉克·奧巴馬的首個(gè)總統(tǒng)任期內(nèi)，共和黨在2010年的中期選舉中奪回了60多個(gè)眾議院席位，重新贏得了眾議院控制權(quán)。它在當(dāng)年選舉中贏得的州議會(huì)和州長(zhǎng)位置也超過(guò)了民主黨。

隨后，共和黨利用州議會(huì)的力量鞏固了自己在華盛頓的控制力，途徑是在2010年的人口普查后重新劃分了議員選區(qū)。

2012年，在新選區(qū)劃定后的首次選舉中，盡管民主黨候選人的全國(guó)得票總數(shù)比共和黨候選人多140萬(wàn)票，共和黨仍在眾議院取得了33個(gè)席位的多數(shù)優(yōu)勢(shì)。

雖然此后法院的裁決使一些選區(qū)重新得到了劃分，但在2018年的中期選舉中，許多選區(qū)都將保持原狀。

王估算，要獲得在眾議院占據(jù)多數(shù)的足夠席位，民主黨議員在本次選舉中的得票率需要比共和黨方面高7-12個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。他說(shuō)，民主黨上一次取得這樣的領(lǐng)先優(yōu)勢(shì)是在2008年。

但隨后情況出現(xiàn)了變化。

楊百翰大學(xué)政治學(xué)助理教授邁克爾·巴伯說(shuō)：“目前就是有更多的選區(qū)自然傾向于共和黨，一部分原因是民主黨的布局，另一部分原因則是共和黨人在劃分選區(qū)時(shí)考慮到了幫自己的黨派拿下更多議席?！卑筒芯窟^(guò)特意劃定選區(qū)和當(dāng)政者對(duì)國(guó)會(huì)選舉的影響。

前總監(jiān)察長(zhǎng)埃里克·霍爾德最近成為新設(shè)立的民主黨全國(guó)重新分區(qū)委員會(huì)主席。該委員會(huì)的目標(biāo)是通過(guò)贏得今后幾年的關(guān)鍵州議會(huì)選舉和訴訟，讓民主黨在2021年重新劃分選區(qū)時(shí)處于更有利的位置。

在愛(ài)荷華州辦公的民主黨顧問(wèn)吉米·科特邁耶說(shuō)：“要做的工作還有很多。重新劃分選區(qū)是個(gè)實(shí)實(shí)在在的問(wèn)題，但坦白地說(shuō)，更大的問(wèn)題在于民主黨的支持者過(guò)于集中在太過(guò)狹小的地區(qū)”，也就是那些大城市，而不是許許多多的美國(guó)中小城市。

對(duì)一部分近來(lái)精神抖擻的民主黨積極分子來(lái)說(shuō)，現(xiàn)實(shí)中的選民分布情況給他們的樂(lè)觀情緒潑了冷水。

大選以來(lái)，費(fèi)城醫(yī)生瑞婭·鮑威爾一直和其他女性一起在華盛頓和費(fèi)城游行，抗議特朗普推翻奧巴馬醫(yī)改法案的企圖，她們還在機(jī)場(chǎng)示威，反對(duì)特朗普頒布的移民限令。她甚至報(bào)名參加了民主黨候選人培訓(xùn)項(xiàng)目。

但鮑威爾也知道，取勝或許很艱難，至少是在短期之內(nèi)。

她說(shuō)：“我擔(dān)心的是，特意的劃分對(duì)許多選區(qū)的影響也許會(huì)讓我們很難（在2018年的選舉中）明顯改變局勢(shì)?！?

其他新涌現(xiàn)的積極分子則相信，就算選區(qū)劃分不利，也有可能獲勝。

瑪麗·克勞斯是一名來(lái)自于芝加哥郊區(qū)的小企業(yè)主，她最近參加了在華盛頓的游行，目前正在自己的社區(qū)組織女性成員。她說(shuō)：“我覺(jué)得總會(huì)有障礙……（但）我們不會(huì)只是坐在這里并搖著頭說(shuō)，‘嗯，好吧，我想只能這樣了?！?

諷刺的是，民主黨贏得大量議席的可能性或許取決于特朗普能否順利施政。共和黨在2010年獲得的那波勝利就是來(lái)自于奧巴馬頒布的政策在選民中引發(fā)的抗議，其中最主要的就是被迅速冠以“奧巴馬醫(yī)改”名號(hào)的醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)法案。

政治學(xué)家、密歇根州立大學(xué)公共政策和社會(huì)調(diào)查研究所主任馬特·格羅斯曼說(shuō)：“政客有時(shí)認(rèn)為他們?cè)S諾后支持者會(huì)希望他們遵守這些承諾，但歷史所展現(xiàn)的模式恰好相反，那就是民意走勢(shì)和政策變化相悖?！?

“所以，唐納德·特朗普越成功，或者說(shuō)，共和黨越成功地讓政策右傾，反作用力就可能越大?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

Passionate protests against Donald Trump's presidency have swelled the ranks of Democratic activists, but their new enthusiasm faces a hard reality: Republicans remain well-positioned to retain their grip on power in the 2018 elections.

While Republicans hold only a slim majority in the U.S. Senate, Democrats occupy most of the seats up for election in two years. That means they must play defense against Republicans, especially in 10 states that Trump won.

In the U.S. House, Republicans will be aided by favorable district boundaries that were drawn to maintain GOP political dominance. In some cases, the congressional districts were gerrymandered to pack high numbers of Democratic voters into just a few districts as a way to create a greater number of Republican-leaning seats.

"Democrats are extremely fired up right now," said Sam Wang, a Princeton University neuroscientist and statistician who has developed a statistical model for analyzing partisan gerrymandering.

But for Democrats to win back Congress, Wang said it "would take an extreme event. The question is, are we seeing something that's headed towards that?"

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is targeting 59 Republican-held House seats in 24 states as it builds toward the next election. Those include 23 districts where Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton defeated Trump and various others that Republicans took away from Democrats in recent years.

It also is beginning to place full-time paid organizers in 20 of those districts, something the committee says it has never done at this early stage.

The Democratic committee is touting a surge of 675,000 new supporters in January, many of whom joined the cause amid nationwide protests against Trump's policies. Whether that energy can be sustained through 2018 remains to be seen.

National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Jesse Hunt calls the Democratic optimism a "pipe dream." Hunt notes that Democrats also held high hopes for 2016, but unseated just four of the 15 freshmen GOP representatives they targeted.

Democrats would appear to have history on their side. The president's party has lost ground in Congress in all but two of the initial midterm elections since the Civil War. The exceptions are 1934, when President Franklin Roosevelt was guiding the country through the Great Depression, and 2002, when President George W. Bush was leading the response to the 2001 terrorist attacks.

In the 2010 election during the middle of President Barack Obama's first term, Republicans flipped more than five dozen seats to take control of the U.S. House away from Democrats. Republicans also won control of a majority of state legislative chambers and governors' offices that year.

They then used that statehouse power to help cement their control in Washington by redrawing congressional districts following the 2010 Census.

In 2012, the first election under those new maps, Republicans won a 33-seat majority in the U.S. House even though Democratic candidates across the country received 1.4 million more votes than their Republican opponents.

Although court rulings have since forced the redrawing of some districts, many of those boundaries remain in place for the 2018 elections.

Wang estimates Democratic congressional candidates would need to win the 2018 nationwide vote by 7 to 12 percentage points to capture enough seats to win control of the House. The last time Democrats enjoyed such a spread was 2008, he said.

But circumstances have changed since then.

"There are just more districts at the moment that have a natural tilt toward Republicans, partly because of Democratic geography and partly because of Republicans drawing districts with an eye toward helping pick up more seats for their party," said Michael Barber, an assistant political science professor at Brigham Young University who has studied the effects of gerrymandering and incumbency on congressional elections.

Former Attorney General Eric Holder recently signed on as chairman of the new National Democratic Redistricting Committee, which is attempting to better position Democrats for the 2021 redistricting by winning key statehouse races and court cases in the coming years.

"There's a lot of work to be done," said Iowa-based Democratic consultant Jim Kottmeyer. "Redistricting is a real problem, but the bigger problem is frankly that Democratic votes are just way too concentrated in too small of geographic areas" — big cities, instead of America's many small and mid-size towns.

The realities of the electoral map have tempered the optimism of some newly invigorated Democratic activists.

Since Election Day, Philadelphia physician Rhea Powell has marched with other women in Washington, protested in her home town against the potential repeal of Obama's health care law and joined in airport demonstrations against Trump's immigration restrictions. She has even enrolled in a program that trains potential Democratic candidates.

But she also understands that victories may be difficult, at least in the near term.

"I am worried that because of the impact that gerrymandering has had on many of the districts that it may be hard to make big changes" in the 2018 elections, Powell said.

Other new activists believe it's possible to win even with unfavorable districts.

"I think there'll always be barriers ... (but) we're not just going to sit back and shake our head and say, 'OK, well, I guess that's it.'" said Mary Clauss, a small business owner from suburban Chicago who recently marched in Washington and now is organizing other women in her community.

Ironically, Democratic chances for huge congressional gains may depend on Trump's success at enacting his agenda. The Republican wave in 2010 was fueled by voter backlash against Obama's policies, headlined by the health care law that quickly became known as "Obamacare."

"Politicians sometimes think that they made promises and their voters want them to keep them, but the historical pattern is the opposite — that public opinion moves against the direction of policy change," said political scientist Matt Grossmann, director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University.

"So the more Donald Trump is successful — and the Republican Party is successful — in moving policy to the right, the bigger the backlash is likely to be."