成人小说亚洲一区二区三区,亚洲国产精品一区二区三区,国产精品成人精品久久久,久久综合一区二区三区,精品无码av一区二区,国产一级a毛一级a看免费视频,欧洲uv免费在线区一二区,亚洲国产欧美中日韩成人综合视频,国产熟女一区二区三区五月婷小说,亚洲一区波多野结衣在线

立即打開
朝鮮威脅核打擊,韓國(guó)債務(wù)違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提高

朝鮮威脅核打擊,韓國(guó)債務(wù)違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提高

Annalyn Kurtz 2017-04-16
隨著對(duì)半島火藥桶徹底引爆的擔(dān)憂愈演愈烈,位于半島南端的韓國(guó)首當(dāng)其沖地受到了影響。

近日,朝鮮針對(duì)當(dāng)前半島局勢(shì)作出強(qiáng)硬回應(yīng),稱已準(zhǔn)備好在受到美國(guó)挑釁時(shí)發(fā)動(dòng)核打擊。隨著地緣政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)日益緊張,上周二,各大金融市場(chǎng)也陷入了恐慌狀態(tài)。隨著對(duì)半島火藥桶徹底引爆的擔(dān)憂愈演愈烈,位于半島南端的韓國(guó)首當(dāng)其沖地受到了影響。

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)經(jīng)理拉里?麥克唐納德上周二在他的博客“The Bear Traps Report”中指出,韓國(guó)主權(quán)債務(wù)違約的保險(xiǎn)成本在一夜之間顯著升高了。

在美朝雙方進(jìn)行了針鋒相對(duì)的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)恐嚇后,本周二投資者們紛紛轉(zhuǎn)向了傳統(tǒng)的幾種避險(xiǎn)交易工具,韓國(guó)主權(quán)債務(wù)違約保險(xiǎn)成本上升只是由此造成的市場(chǎng)變化之一。上周二,黃金和日元價(jià)值都躍升到了近五個(gè)月來的最高水平。

韓國(guó)的信用違約掉期一夜之間從53個(gè)基本點(diǎn)躍升到60個(gè)基本點(diǎn),也就是說,每1000萬美元的五年債務(wù)違約保險(xiǎn)成本將達(dá)到每年6萬美元。這也是自去年七月市場(chǎng)對(duì)亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)疲軟的擔(dān)憂達(dá)到頂峰以來的最高水平。

需要指出的是,業(yè)界普遍認(rèn)為韓國(guó)主權(quán)債務(wù)違約的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)仍然很低。但即便如此,信用違約掉期在一夜之間上漲這么多,仍然是不同尋常的跡象。

麥克唐納德對(duì)《財(cái)富》表示:“韓國(guó)是不會(huì)違約的,不過韓國(guó)的主權(quán)違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)畢竟從6%上漲到了9%,這在短期內(nèi)是一種顯著變化。”

信用違約掉期(CDS)是一種不太容易理解的金融工具,在金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后得到更多關(guān)注。它本質(zhì)上是一種針對(duì)債務(wù)違約的保險(xiǎn)合約。當(dāng)投資者對(duì)一國(guó)政府(比如韓國(guó))的債務(wù)信用產(chǎn)生擔(dān)憂時(shí),就可以購(gòu)買一份這樣的合約。

對(duì)于在亞洲經(jīng)營(yíng)有大規(guī)模業(yè)務(wù)的美國(guó)企業(yè),信用違約掉期不失為一種對(duì)沖廣域地緣政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的實(shí)用工具。

“如果我是蘋果公司的CEO,我會(huì)針對(duì)亞洲的一些國(guó)家購(gòu)買信用違約掉期?!丙溈颂萍{德表示:“如果該地區(qū)發(fā)生了政治動(dòng)蕩,你的供應(yīng)鏈可能處于顯著的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)之中?!?/p>

本周二,特朗普在推特上給本已火藥味甚濃的半島局勢(shì)又添了一把火,他表示“朝鮮正在自找麻煩,”并且向中國(guó)國(guó)家主席習(xí)近平提醒道,如果“他們解決了朝鮮問題”,中美之間或許能達(dá)成更有利的貿(mào)易協(xié)定。

“朝鮮是在自找麻煩。如果中國(guó)決定幫忙,那很好。如果不能幫忙,美國(guó)會(huì)單獨(dú)解決問題!”

-唐納德?J?特朗普(@realDonaldTrump),2017年4月11日

“我向中國(guó)國(guó)家主席解釋道,如果他們解決了朝鮮問題,中國(guó)將能與美國(guó)簽署有利得多的貿(mào)易協(xié)定。”

-唐納德?J?特朗普(@realDonaldTrump),2017年4月11日

這兩條推特是在四天前的“習(xí)特會(huì)”剛剛結(jié)束后發(fā)布的,到目前為止,“習(xí)特會(huì)”尚未宣布中美之間達(dá)成了任何重大突破或合作。

麥克唐納德表示:“在協(xié)助解決朝鮮問題上,中國(guó)不會(huì)任由特朗普予取予求。如果中國(guó)確實(shí)無法提供足夠的支持,肯定會(huì)影響中美之間的貿(mào)易談判。這對(duì)蘋果來說也是個(gè)壞消息,因?yàn)槟愕墓?yīng)鏈會(huì)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:樸成奎

Financial markets are rattled Tuesday by increasing geopolitical risks, after North Korea warned it stands ready to deploy its nuclear arsenal if provoked by the United States. And the concerns reverberate throughout the region, affecting the communist nation’s democratic neighbor to the south as well.

The cost to insure against a sovereign debt default by South Korea suddenly jumped Tuesday, notes risk manager Larry McDonald on his blog, The Bear Traps Report.

It’s one of several market moves playing out Tuesday as investors increasingly flock to traditional safe-haven trades. U.S. Treasury yields have been falling for the last two days. Both gold and the Japanese yen climbed to their highest levels in five months on Tuesday.

Overnight, credit default swap spreads for South Korea jumped from 53 basis points to 60 basis points, meaning it would cost about $60,000 a year to insure $10 million of debt for five years. That’s the highest level since July, when concerns about economic weakness in Asia prevailed.

To be clear, the probability of a default by South Korea is still considered quite low, but nevertheless, the overnight jump is a dramatic one.

“South Korea is not going to default, but the probability of default just went from maybe 6% to 9%. It’s a big move to happen in short period of time,” McDonald told Fortune.

An obscure financial instrument that rose to greater prominence during the financial crisis, a credit default swap, or CDS, is basically an insurance contract against a default. Investors can buy a contract against a sovereign government like South Korea as they speculate on the creditworthiness of that government.

For U.S. companies with a large presence in Asia, these CDS contracts may be a useful hedge against geopolitical risk in the broader region.

“If I was the CEO of Apple, I would be buying credit default swaps on countries in Asia," McDonald said. "If something were to happen politically in that region, your supply chain is at dramatic risk."

Tweets by President Trump early Tuesday only added further fuel to the fire. The president tweeted that “North Korea is looking for trouble,” and reminded Chinese President Xi Jinping that China and the U.S. could strike a better trade deal if “they solve the North Korean problem.”

North Korea is looking for trouble. If China decides to help, that would be great. If not, we will solve the problem without them! U.S.A.

- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 11, 2017

I explained to the President of China that a trade deal with the U.S. will be far better for them if they solve the North Korean problem!

- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 11, 2017

Those tweets follow Trump’s first face-to-face meeting with Xi Jinping just four days ago, which so far has led to no major breakthroughs or pacts between the world's two largest economies.

“China didn’t give Trump everything he wanted in terms of assurances on their help with North Korea,” McDonald said. “If China doesn’t really offer enough support, that’s going to hurt the trade negotiations. That’s bad for Apple because you’ve got supply chain risk.”

掃描二維碼下載財(cái)富APP
日韩精品内射视频免费观看| 久久国产精品免费一区二区| 久久久久国产精品无套专区| 国产免费高潮无码视频在线| 国产一本大道香蕉综合| 人妻自慰蜜臀喷潮流白浆| 清纯唯美在线视频欧美| 少妇无码一区二区三区| 午夜无码片在线观看影院y| 国产成人v片视频在线观看| 无码中文字幕av免费放| 无码人妻精品一区二区蜜桃视频| 夜夜骚AV-D,亚洲VA中文字幕无码毛片| 国内揄拍国内精品少妇| 国产刺激男女视频在线| 国产欧美综合在线观看| 亚洲精品中文字幕乱码三区| 国产亚洲精品精品国产亚洲综合| 手机看片久久国产永久免费| 精品久久免费一区二区三区四区| 亚洲麻豆av无码成人片在线观看| 小宝极品内射国产在线| 国偷自产av一区二区三区蜜| 国产亚洲欧美另类一区二区三区| 人妻夜夜爽天天爽三区| 在线观看片免费人成视频播放| 无人区乱码二线三线| 无码毛片视频一区二区本码| 亚洲日韩涩涩成人午夜私人影院| 人与动人物a级毛片免费视频| 亚洲无码视频一区二区三区| 亚洲熟妇AV一区二区三区漫| 四虎一区二区三区精品| 无码中文无码精品| 亚洲午夜无码久久久久| 18禁黄网站禁片无遮挡观看下载| 狠狠躁夜夜躁人人爽天天5| 亚洲成熟丰满熟妇高潮XXXXX| 青青久在线视频免费观看| 国产无遮挡裸体免费视频| 人妻中文字幕无码系列|