現在又到了買車的好時候。

首先，各大經銷商都給出了經濟危機以來最大的優(yōu)惠力度。其次，隨著油價跌至歷史最低水平，加之汽車燃油經濟性不斷改善，消費者每月不需要掏多少額外的加油費用，就能將家里的小轎車換成大排量的SUV。

但對于美國的汽車廠商和經銷商來說，情況卻是全然另一付樣子。雖然汽車行業(yè)的總體銷量再創(chuàng)歷史新高，但目前已有跡象表明，這場“銷量盛宴”只怕很快就要結束。

這很可能會給特朗普的經濟計劃帶來一定的麻煩。雖然近來通用汽車、菲亞特克萊斯勒、福特以及豐田等廠商紛紛宣布，要在美國境內的工廠招聘更多工人，但它們或許很快就會陷入進退兩難的狀態(tài)。面對收益疲軟的局面，如果他們被迫削減產能，那么在人員去留的問題上，就只能選擇暫時或永久裁員。

在更大層面上看，汽車產業(yè)占到了美國國內生產總值的3%左右，它在消費價格指數等通脹指標以及美聯儲青睞的一些價格指標（如個人消費支出）中所占的比例則要更高一些。

這個比例雖然貌似很小，但是汽車產業(yè)的急劇下滑足以導致GDP和通脹指標都出現相當程度的下降。這一方面會導致特朗普承諾的快速經濟增長無法實現，另一方面也會導致美聯儲難以兌現2%的通脹目標。

現在我們來解釋一下為什么會發(fā)生這種局面。

首先，汽車銷量已到達頂峰。汽車產業(yè)的發(fā)展在過去幾年出現了一個小高潮，汽車銷量也在2015年和2016年連續(xù)創(chuàng)下紀錄。這主要是由就業(yè)率升高、工資水平上漲、低利率和歷史性的低油價等因素共同導致的。這些因素也給消費者提供了換車或者將家轎換成SUV的動機。與此同時，房地產市場的回暖也推高了皮卡車型的銷量。

不過行業(yè)專家表示，汽車銷量已經達到了頂峰，下一步必然會出現下滑。本周二在紐約國際車展開幕前的一次論壇上，豐田公司的一位高管對這一趨勢表示認可，并預測今年美國汽車行業(yè)的銷量將從去年的1750萬輛下滑至1700到1720萬輛之間。

豐田汽車美國銷售部負責人鮑勃·卡特也表示，美國的汽車產業(yè)現在已經“到頂了”，并指出豐田的優(yōu)惠力度“比我們以往經歷的任何時候都高?！?

豐田并不是唯一提高優(yōu)惠力度的廠商。為了賣出盡可能多的新車，美國各大經銷商都向消費者給出經濟危機以來最大的折扣力度。如J.D.Power公司的分析師托馬斯·金指出，今年一至三月，各大經銷商的新車平均折扣達到了3900美元每輛，幾乎占到了廠商平均建議零售價的10.5%。

托馬斯·金對《財富》表示：“汽車行業(yè)正在使用各種策略保持他們的銷售空間，而這也帶來了一些挑戰(zhàn)，很可能會導致一些后遺癥?！?/p>

其次，新車和二手車市場都供大于求。各大經銷商之所以紛紛推出史無前例的優(yōu)惠力度，有一個很重要的原因就是市場顯著供大于求。而隨著銷量連續(xù)兩年創(chuàng)造新高，今年消費者換車的欲望已經不像前兩年那樣強烈了。

另外，新車經銷商也日益受到了二手車市場的競爭。在經濟危機期間，由于就業(yè)市場疲軟，很多車主都選擇了推遲換車，也就是說，當時市場上的二手車是比較少的，二手車價格也因此上升到了創(chuàng)紀錄的高水平。然而現在二手車市場再次熱鬧了起來，二手車的價格也就隨之下降了。

在這種情況下，消費者可能會以很低的價格買到車況還不錯的二手車，這給新車經銷商造成了很大的競爭壓力。

“如果你想買車，又恰巧看了一眼二手車市場，你就會發(fā)現，可供選擇的品相較好的二手車明顯變多了。”

二手車價格的下降也挫傷了想賣車的消費者的積極性。由于二手車的貶值速度加快了，車主在賣車的時候就會發(fā)現，賣車的價格要低于此前他們預期的心理價位。

再次，利率上漲以及拖欠貸款行為的增多都會擠壓廠商的利潤。今年第一季度，超過三分之一的新車貸款的償還期都在72個月或以上。消費者之所以選擇長達6年的還款期，就是想降低每個月的還款數額，這樣一來，他們就有能力購買更貴的車型或者更高的配置。然而在這漫長的六年里，就連一個國家的經濟形勢都可能發(fā)生很多錯綜復雜的變化，更不用說一個人的個人經濟狀況了。更何況很多買車的人還是“打腫臉充胖子”，實際上是負擔不起自己所購買的車型的。

車貸還款周期的普遍拉長也加大了貸款違約的風險。紐約聯邦儲備銀行的數據已經表明，目前的不良貸款數已經逼近了2008年以來的最高水平。

貸款違約的增長很可能導致汽車廠商和提供車貸的金融機構遭受損失，尤其是當前很多廠商和金融機構都打出了“0利率購車”的旗號。貸款違約和利率的上漲很可能會進一步擠壓汽車廠商的利潤空間，從而削弱他們進一步向消費者提供優(yōu)惠的能力。

最后，汽車廠商和經銷商只剩下兩個選擇：要么削減產能，要么推出更大的折扣力度，繼續(xù)刷新銷量紀錄。

從短期看來，汽車行業(yè)如果綜合采用這兩種策略，有可能會讓汽車銷量繼續(xù)穩(wěn)定在近期的水平，但這并不能避免行業(yè)的長期風險。

美銀美林的經濟學家米歇爾·梅爾和亞歷山大·林最近在一篇題為《我們是否正在走向一次撞車？》的文章中寫道：“所有的拼圖都已拼好，所有跡象都指向了汽車行業(yè)所面臨的問題。關鍵是這種情況多久才會變化?！?/p>

對于這一問題，雖然尚無明確答案，但敬請繼續(xù)保持關注。

兩位經濟學家最后指出：“到目前看來，汽車行業(yè)的銷量下降對于整體經濟來說還是可控的?！保ㄘ敻恢形木W）

譯者：樸成奎

It’s a good time to be a car buyer.

Dealers are offering the biggest discounts since the Great Recession, and a combination of historically low gas prices and improvements in fuel efficiency mean consumers can upgrade from cars to SUVs without forking over a huge chunk of their paycheck to gas stations each month.

But the story is entirely different for U.S. carmakers and dealers. Although the auto industry has enjoyed record sales recently, there are early signs that the party could soon be over.

And that could spell trouble for President Trump’s economic agenda. Although he has celebrated automakers General Motors, Fiat Chrysler, Ford, and Toyota for announcing new jobs at U.S. factories, these manufacturers could soon be caught in a bit of a contradiction, with weaker earnings ahead leading to furloughs or even job cuts if they’re forced to cut production.

Broadly speaking, autos make up about 3% of the country’s gross domestic product, but account for a slightly larger share of inflation metrics like the Consumer Price Index and the Fed’s preferred measure of prices, known as personal consumption expenditures.

This may sound small, but it's enough for a steep decline in the auto sector to shave a few tenths from both GDP and the inflation metrics, limiting Trump’s ability to reach the rapid economic growth he has promised and hampering the Federal Reserve’s target for 2% inflation.

Here’s how it could play out.

We’re at peak auto sales: The auto industry has enjoyed a boom over the last few years. Vehicle sales hit records in 2015 and 2016, as more jobs, rising wages, low interest rates and historically low gasoline prices fueled consumers to replace older vehicles and upgrade from cars to SUVs. Meanwhile, a recovery in the housing market boosted sales of pickup trucks.

But now industry experts say they’ve reached the peak and there’s nowhere to go but down. Speaking Tuesday at a forum ahead of the New York International Auto Show, a Toyota executive admitted as much, forecasting U.S. sales for the entire industry will decline to between 17 million and 17.2 million units in 2017, down from a record high of 17.5 million the year before.

Bob Carter, president of Toyota’s U.S. sales unit, called the industry “over the top” and noted that Toyota’s discounts are “higher than we’ve ever experienced.”

Toyota certainly isn’t alone. Dealers are having to offer consumers the biggest discounts since the Great Recession to move new cars off the lots. These discounts averaged about $3,900 per vehicle in the first three months of 2017, or about 10.5% of the average manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP) for a new vehicle, notes J.D. Power forecaster Thomas King.

“The industry is using tactics to maintain their sales pace, which is creating challenges,” he told Fortune. “There’s a risk of a hangover to come.”

There’s a glut of both new and used cars. Part of the reason why dealers are offering such deep discounts is because they’re producing more cars than there is demand. After record sales for two years running, there’s less appetite from consumers to replace older vehicles.

In addition, dealers selling new cars are facing increased competition from used vehicles. During a weak job market in the recession, drivers held on to their cars for longer than usual, meaning that there were fewer used vehicles on the market and prices climbed to record highs. But now those used vehicles are coming back on to the market, driving the prices down.

Dealers selling new cars have to compete with some pretty amazing deals on gently used vehicles.

“If you were shopping for a vehicle, and you happen to look at the used vehicle lot, you’re going to see a much bigger selection of nice used vehicles,” King said.

What's more, this slump in used vehicle prices hurts consumers who want to trade in their older models. As used vehicles depreciate faster, car buyers will find they have less equity than they may have expected when turning in an older vehicle.

Longer loans, the Fed’s rate hikes and rising delinquencies will all squeeze automakers’ profit margins. In the first quarter, more than a third of new auto loans were dated 72 months or longer. Consumers are locking in these six-year loans to get lower monthly payments, and as a result are choosing to buy more expensive vehicles with more features. A lot can change in the economy, not to mention an individual’s personal finances over a period of six years or more, and it could be argued that many buyers are spending more than they can afford.

These longer loan durations are increasing the risk of defaults, and already the Federal Reserve Bank of New York data show new delinquencies are back at their highest levels since 2008.

Higher delinquencies can foreshadow losses for carmakers and financiers, who have recently made 0% financing a widespread phenomenon. Delinquencies and interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve will further squeeze automakers’ profit margins, limiting their ability to keep offering deep discounts to customers.

Finally, automakers and dealers are left with just two choices: Either cut production or introduce even steeper discounts to keep selling record numbers of vehicles.

Over the short-term, this mix of strategies could keep auto sales stable around their latest record highs, but not without posing longterm consequences on the industry.

“The pieces of the puzzle are coming together to point to weakness ahead for the auto sector, but there is the lingering question of how quickly the story will evolve,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists Michelle Meyer and Alexander Lin wrote in a recent note to clients, aptly titled: “Are we heading into a car crash?”

The answer? Not yet, but stay tuned.

“So far, the slowdown in the pace of auto sales is manageable for the economy,” they concluded.