歐洲終于可以松一口氣了。

39歲的前投資銀行家埃曼努爾·馬克龍正式當(dāng)選為未來(lái)五年的法國(guó)總統(tǒng)。馬克龍?jiān)诹_斯柴爾德銀行（Rothschild）任職，后短時(shí)間擔(dān)任過(guò)弗朗索瓦·奧朗德的經(jīng)濟(jì)部長(zhǎng)。

馬克龍獲得了65.8%的得票率，以近一倍的優(yōu)勢(shì)，擊敗了極右翼國(guó)民陣線（Front National）候選人馬林·勒龐（34.2%），成為法國(guó)140多年來(lái)最年輕的國(guó)家領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人。這一結(jié)果再次堅(jiān)定了法國(guó)對(duì)貿(mào)易自由主義和歐盟的承諾，盡管法國(guó)境內(nèi)伊斯蘭教徒暴力行為日益增多，主流政黨也沒(méi)有解決長(zhǎng)久以來(lái)的失業(yè)和預(yù)算赤字問(wèn)題。

對(duì)于歐洲近年來(lái)最重要的一次選舉，你需要知道下面幾件事。

1. 民粹主義潮流只是暫時(shí)平息，但并未消失

正如我們上周所說(shuō)的，這是歐洲主流勢(shì)力的一次重要?jiǎng)倮?，但并非最終的勝利。雖然總統(tǒng)大選通常歸結(jié)為個(gè)性的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，但事實(shí)上，一年多來(lái)法國(guó)的失業(yè)率在不斷下降，并且終于實(shí)現(xiàn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。商業(yè)調(diào)查顯示，法國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)創(chuàng)下了六年來(lái)最快的增長(zhǎng)速度。這分流了勒龐吸引的抗議選票。她在兩周前的首輪投票中獲得了21.3%的得票率，但在2014年歐盟議會(huì)選舉時(shí)，她的政黨的得票率為24.8%，下降了3.5%。事后看來(lái)，2014年的投票結(jié)果，可能成為國(guó)民陣線在危機(jī)后的周期高點(diǎn)。但增長(zhǎng)也是周期性的，許多因素正在削弱對(duì)仇恨全球化、恐懼伊斯蘭教和失業(yè)問(wèn)題等極右翼和極左翼主張的支持，這些因素都是結(jié)構(gòu)性的。2002年，讓-馬里·勒龐參加大選時(shí)的得票率為17.8%，而他女兒的得票率幾乎翻了一番，這在表面上依舊可以證明，從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，國(guó)民陣線正處在上升趨勢(shì)。

2. 法國(guó)例外

2006年民粹主義者取得了兩場(chǎng)巨大的勝利，分別是唐納德·特朗普勝選和英國(guó)脫歐公投，而這兩次勝利主要都?xì)w功于老年選民。65歲以上選民支持特朗普的比例比反對(duì)者高出八個(gè)百分點(diǎn)（54% - 46%），而支持脫歐的65歲以上選民更是比反對(duì)者高出20個(gè)百分點(diǎn)（60% - 40%），令人感到詫異。相比之下，據(jù)哈佛學(xué)者雅斯查·蒙克指出，年輕人比其他年齡群體更傾向于支持勒龐。據(jù)蒙克引用的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，老年人支持和反對(duì)馬克龍的比例分別為80% - 20%。

3. 對(duì)歐元的支持

退休老人害怕勒龐當(dāng)選的部分原因，無(wú)疑是因?yàn)樗兄Z退出歐元區(qū)，推出新法郎（盡管她的思路雜亂無(wú)章，甚至她自己可能都不理解）。巧合的是，老年人反對(duì)和支持勒龐的比例分別為80% - 20%，與民意調(diào)查網(wǎng)站Opinion-Way.fr就她退出歐元區(qū)的承諾是否現(xiàn)實(shí)進(jìn)行民調(diào)時(shí)得到的結(jié)果完全相同。對(duì)于老年人來(lái)說(shuō)，“法國(guó)脫歐”可能意味著購(gòu)買(mǎi)力下降，通貨膨脹加劇。而與其他發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家一樣，老年人正在對(duì)選舉結(jié)果產(chǎn)生越來(lái)越大的影響力。此外，法國(guó)選民不再像希臘選民一樣，認(rèn)為更廉價(jià)、更自由的貨幣，可以解決他們的問(wèn)題。法國(guó)有48%的進(jìn)口來(lái)自歐元區(qū)，民眾有這樣的態(tài)度也就不足為奇了。

4. 馬克龍有很強(qiáng)的學(xué)習(xí)能力

馬克龍?jiān)谑纵喭镀苯Y(jié)束進(jìn)入決勝輪之后，在巴黎一家高檔餐廳舉行了盛大的派對(duì)，結(jié)果遭到激烈的批評(píng)。對(duì)于許多人來(lái)說(shuō)，這意味著他認(rèn)為最終勝利已經(jīng)板上釘釘。他也確實(shí)有理由這樣想，因?yàn)閿?shù)月來(lái)每一次民意調(diào)查都顯示，他對(duì)勒龐有明顯的領(lǐng)先優(yōu)勢(shì)，但沒(méi)有人喜歡被認(rèn)為是理所當(dāng)然的。所以，他在周日發(fā)表的獲勝演講變得謙遜得多。犬儒主義者可能認(rèn)為，這也表明他現(xiàn)在真得應(yīng)該對(duì)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手友好一些，因?yàn)樗I(lǐng)導(dǎo)的“前進(jìn)”（En Marche!）運(yùn)動(dòng)，在6月份的國(guó)民議會(huì)選舉中并不能保證取得好成績(jī)。而如果在議會(huì)中不能掌握可靠的多數(shù)席位，馬克龍將很難頒布改革方案，來(lái)徹底消除各種極端主義威脅。

5. 選民可以分辨虛假新聞

此次選舉有一個(gè)顯而易見(jiàn)的好消息，那就是法國(guó)選民基本上沒(méi)有受到虛假新聞持續(xù)攻擊的影響，其中多數(shù)虛假新聞的目的都是抹黑馬克龍。有消息稱馬克龍隱瞞了同性戀的身份，并稱他在巴哈馬群島擁有秘密銀行賬戶的，雖然這些說(shuō)法在法國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)廣為流傳，但卻并沒(méi)有左右選情。最后有人試圖用一批據(jù)稱是被黑客竊取的電子郵件，來(lái)阻止馬克龍（初步跡象顯示此事依舊與俄羅斯有關(guān)），但這種愚蠢的做法一兩個(gè)小時(shí)之后，法國(guó)政府緊急頒布了針對(duì)選舉相關(guān)新聞報(bào)道的傳統(tǒng)禁令。相比之下，左傾司法部門(mén)旨在抹黑建制派中右翼候選人弗朗索瓦·菲永的泄密行動(dòng)，卻取得了成功，至少因?yàn)樾孤兜男畔⒏惺聦?shí)依據(jù)。這種形勢(shì)的寓意在于，只要法國(guó)建制派能夠比非建制派更專業(yè)地引導(dǎo)民意，法國(guó)的民主便是安全的。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

Europe can finally breathe out.

Emmanuel Macron, a 39-year-old former investment banker with Rothschild who briefly served as Francois Hollande's economy minister, has been elected president of France for the next five years.

According to preliminary figures, he trounced the far right Front National candidate Marine Le Pen by a margin of 65.8% to 34.2%—almost two to one—to become the youngest leader of France in over 140 years. With that result, France has reaffirmed its commitment to liberalism and the European Union, despite the surge in Islamist atrocities on French soil in recent years, and despite the failure of mainstream parties to tackle the chronic problems of unemployment and budget deficits.

Here's what you need to know about the most important election in the heart of Europe in years.

1. Populism Postponed, not Cancelled

As we argued last week, this is a major victory for Europe's mainstream, but it's not a final one. While this has often been boiled down to a battle of personalities, the fact is that unemployment has been falling for over a year, while growth has finally taken root. Business surveys suggest the economy is growing at its fastest rate in six years. That has drained protest votes away from Le Pen. The 21.3% she received in the first round two weeks ago was already 3.5% less than the 24.8% her party got in elections to the EU Parliament in 2014. The 2014 result, in hindsight, will go down as the post-crisis cyclical peak for the FN. But growth is cyclical, and many of the factors underpinning support for the far right and far left—a resentment of globalization, a fear of Islamism, and much of the unemployment problem, are structural. Le Pen, who still got nearly double the 17.8% her father Jean-Marie got in the 2002 run-off, can still plausibly argue that the FN is on an upward long-term trajectory.

2. The French Exception

The two great populist successes of 2016, the election of Donald Trump and the Brexit referendum, both owed much to older voters. Over 65s voted for Trump by a margin of eight percentage points (54%-46%), and voted for Brexit by a thumping 20-point margin (60%-40%). By contrast, the young were more inclined to vote for Le Pen than any other age group, Harvard lecturer Yascha Mounk pointed out. According to figures cited by Mounk, the gray vote split 80%-20% in favor of Macron.

3. Support for the Euro

Part of retirees' fear of Le Pen was doubtless tied to her promises to withdraw from the euro and reintroduce the franc (albeit in a muddled way which even she probably didn't understand). The 80%-20% split in the old vote against Le Pen was, coincidentally, exactly the same as produced when pollster Opinion-Way.fr asked whether her promises on pulling out of the Euro were realistic. 'Frexit' would have meant less spending power and more inflation for a demographic that, as everywhere in the advanced world, is exerting a huge and growing influence on election results. Ultimately, French voters didn't think a cheaper, freer currency would solve their problems any more than Greece's did. Which is hardly surprising when 48% of your imports come from the Eurozone.

4. Macron is a quick learner

After the first round of voting, Macron was slammed for holding a big party in an upscale Paris restaurant after making it through to the run-off. To many, that suggested he was already thinking victory was a nailed-on certainty. He had good reason to, since every opinion poll for months had shown him clearly beating Le Pen, but nobody likes to be taken for granted, and his victory speech on Sunday was a lot more humble. Cynics would say it also reflected the fact that he now really has to start being nice to his opponents, because his movement, En Marche!, is by no means guaranteed to do as well in elections to the Assembly in June. And without a reliable majority in parliament, Macron will struggle to enact the reforms needed to kill off the extremist menace for good.

5. Voters are wising up to fake news

One unambiguously good piece of news out of the vote is that French voters have been largely immune to a constant barrage of fake news, the overwhelming majority of which was aimed at discrediting Macron. Allegations of secret homosexuality and clandestine bank accounts in the Bahamas gained ample space in the French Internet, but failed to gain traction. A final ham-fisted attempt to embarrass Macron with a trove of what purported to be hacked e-mails (first indications suggest the trail leads back - again - to Russia) only broke an hour or two before the traditional ban on reporting election-relevant news descended. By contrast, a targeted campaign of leaks from a largely left-leaning judiciary discrediting the establishment center-right candidate Francois Fillon succeeded spectacularly, not least because they appeared to be better founded in fact. The moral appears to be that democracy in France will be safe as long as the establishment does a more professional job of manipulating public opinion than the anti-establishment.