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退出《巴黎協(xié)定》將使美國(guó)企業(yè)遭受重創(chuàng)

退出《巴黎協(xié)定》將使美國(guó)企業(yè)遭受重創(chuàng)

Jeff McDermott 2017-06-05
退出《巴黎協(xié)定》意味著美國(guó)從此不必再削減其碳排放,進(jìn)而意味著美國(guó)也不必再對(duì)風(fēng)能、太陽(yáng)能以及各種節(jié)能減排技術(shù)進(jìn)行投資,而這些領(lǐng)域恰恰正是新增就業(yè)崗位的聚集地。

2015年,全球195個(gè)國(guó)家齊聚一堂,簽署了旨在應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化的成因及其影響的《巴黎協(xié)定》。而現(xiàn)在美國(guó)總統(tǒng)特朗普正在考慮退出這一歷史性的協(xié)議,這不僅會(huì)阻礙新能源技術(shù)的發(fā)展,同時(shí)也會(huì)給美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展進(jìn)程造成不利影響。

退出《巴黎協(xié)定》意味著美國(guó)從此不必再削減其碳排放,進(jìn)而意味著美國(guó)也不必再對(duì)風(fēng)能、太陽(yáng)能以及各種節(jié)能減排技術(shù)進(jìn)行投資,而這些領(lǐng)域恰恰正是新增就業(yè)崗位的聚集地。比如根據(jù)美國(guó)能源部發(fā)布的《2017年美國(guó)能源與就業(yè)報(bào)告》顯示,去年一年,光是與太陽(yáng)能有關(guān)的就業(yè)崗位就增長(zhǎng)了25%——因?yàn)檫@個(gè)行業(yè)需要大量人員在屋頂上安裝太陽(yáng)能電池板。同時(shí)風(fēng)能行業(yè)的工作機(jī)會(huì)也增長(zhǎng)了32%。如今這兩個(gè)行業(yè)在美國(guó)的就業(yè)人數(shù)已經(jīng)超過了50萬(wàn)人。而相比之下,煤炭行業(yè)已經(jīng)基本實(shí)現(xiàn)了機(jī)械化,目前美國(guó)煤炭行業(yè)的就業(yè)人數(shù)僅有7.4萬(wàn)人,比2009年下降了39%。也正是由于煤炭行業(yè)的高度機(jī)械化,即便我們對(duì)煤炭的消耗增加了,這些被砍掉的就業(yè)崗位也不會(huì)回來。風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能才是能夠增加就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)的行業(yè),而如果我們不繼續(xù)削減碳排放,它們的增長(zhǎng)速度就快不起來。

在通信和國(guó)防等行業(yè),美國(guó)通過引領(lǐng)技術(shù)進(jìn)步,已經(jīng)創(chuàng)造了無數(shù)的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)和巨大的財(cái)富。而特朗普政府卻要開歷史的倒車,妄圖扼殺風(fēng)能、太陽(yáng)能、新型電池、智能電網(wǎng)和電動(dòng)汽車等新能源技術(shù)的創(chuàng)新,這道理無論如何也講不通。

如果美國(guó)真的退出了《巴黎協(xié)定》,那它注定將淪為孤家寡人。根據(jù)國(guó)際能源署的統(tǒng)計(jì),《巴黎協(xié)定》的其他194個(gè)簽約國(guó)對(duì)氣候變化都極為重視,從2016年到2040年,各國(guó)累計(jì)將向新能源技術(shù)投入7.4萬(wàn)億美元的資金。因此,這是一個(gè)極其龐大且增長(zhǎng)極快的市場(chǎng)。美國(guó)應(yīng)該鼓勵(lì)新能源技術(shù)的發(fā)展,從而為美國(guó)帶來新的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)以及稅收和利潤(rùn)來源。正當(dāng)其他國(guó)家都投身于21世紀(jì)的未來技術(shù)時(shí),美國(guó)卻要重新拾起20世紀(jì)的能源技術(shù),這樣做的意義何在?特朗普當(dāng)局應(yīng)該重新審視自己的政策取向,采取著眼美國(guó)長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策。

目前,世界各國(guó)都在快速采用新能源技術(shù),這首先是由于新能源的成本很低。世界銀行的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,1990年,全球僅有1100萬(wàn)部手機(jī),而現(xiàn)在則已經(jīng)增長(zhǎng)到了70億部。為什么呢?因?yàn)榉涓C技術(shù)實(shí)現(xiàn)了規(guī)?;?,從而變得更便宜了,同時(shí)市場(chǎng)也得到了擴(kuò)展。

同樣的情況也正發(fā)生在新能源產(chǎn)業(yè)上。據(jù)彭博新能源財(cái)經(jīng)(BNEF)報(bào)道,1990年,制造太陽(yáng)能電池組件的成本高達(dá)7.57美元每瓦特。而到了2016年,這一成本已經(jīng)急劇下跌了95%,成本僅有0.41美元每瓦特,而且預(yù)計(jì)還將進(jìn)一步降低。海岸風(fēng)能和鋰離子電池(可用于儲(chǔ)存太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能)等技術(shù)的成本也出現(xiàn)了類似的下降。這些技術(shù)如果與低成本的傳感器、云計(jì)算軟件和智能電表等技術(shù)相結(jié)合,美國(guó)就可以建立起一個(gè)低碳、數(shù)字化、彈性和經(jīng)濟(jì)的電力系統(tǒng)。

這些新能源技術(shù)系統(tǒng)如果美國(guó)不建立,也自然會(huì)有其他國(guó)家愿意建立,屆時(shí)美國(guó)必將失去新能源領(lǐng)域的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)。據(jù)國(guó)際能源署預(yù)測(cè),從現(xiàn)在起到2040年,全球發(fā)電能力投資的75%以上將流向新能源領(lǐng)域,而化石燃料領(lǐng)域只占了不到25%。另?yè)?jù)彭博新能源財(cái)經(jīng)預(yù)測(cè),到2040年,電動(dòng)汽車將占市面上銷售的所有輕型車輛的35%。

美國(guó)擁有世界上最好的研究型大學(xué)、企業(yè)家和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資家。但如果美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)沒有部署新能源的市場(chǎng),其技術(shù)和制造業(yè)人才就會(huì)流向海外。如果美國(guó)積極發(fā)展新能源技術(shù),它完全可以成為該領(lǐng)域卓越的創(chuàng)新和制造引擎,并且創(chuàng)造數(shù)十萬(wàn)個(gè)就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)。特朗普政府妄圖對(duì)抗新技術(shù)的成本曲線,這無疑是一場(chǎng)愚蠢的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)。

那么,華盛頓的共和黨人在做什么呢?舊產(chǎn)業(yè)的既得利益者(也就是煤電和化石燃料行業(yè))但凡感受到了新能源的威脅,就會(huì)讓政客們出面扼殺這些新技術(shù)。比如在2018年美國(guó)政府的預(yù)算草案中,特朗普就提議將能源部高級(jí)研究計(jì)劃署(ARPA–E)的預(yù)算砍掉93%。美國(guó)能源部長(zhǎng)里克?佩里近日要求對(duì)間歇性可再生能源對(duì)電網(wǎng)的影響進(jìn)行研究,這項(xiàng)研究在很大程度上是在為能源部采取反可再生能源的政策開路。而美國(guó)環(huán)境保護(hù)署署長(zhǎng)斯科普?普雷特則正在考慮取消燃油經(jīng)濟(jì)性標(biāo)準(zhǔn)——此舉將減少美國(guó)對(duì)外國(guó)石油的依賴,但卻對(duì)美國(guó)干凈的空氣和水質(zhì)形成了嚴(yán)峻的威脅。

然而美國(guó)也并不是非走這條路不可。在上世紀(jì)80年代,有線電話行業(yè)的既得利益者也曾妄圖限制蜂窩技術(shù)公司的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)能力,但里根總統(tǒng)并沒有理睬他們,而是大力鼓勵(lì)無限通訊技術(shù)的發(fā)展。如果聯(lián)邦政府在80年代阻礙了蜂窩技術(shù)的發(fā)展,蘋果和高通等美國(guó)企業(yè)現(xiàn)在就不可能成為美國(guó)無線通信行業(yè)的領(lǐng)袖。同樣,現(xiàn)在的特朗普政府也不應(yīng)該向化石燃料行業(yè)低頭,或是損害新能源技術(shù)的發(fā)展。

值得欣慰的是,各州的共和黨籍州長(zhǎng)及州立法機(jī)關(guān)還是對(duì)新能源技術(shù)表示了歡迎的態(tài)度。比如密歇根州州長(zhǎng)里克?施耐德、俄亥俄州州長(zhǎng)約翰?卡西奇、伊利諾斯州州長(zhǎng)布魯斯?勞納等共和黨籍州長(zhǎng)最近都簽署了代表兩黨的折衷方案,鼓勵(lì)新能源技術(shù)在有關(guān)各州進(jìn)一步發(fā)展。內(nèi)華達(dá)州的立法機(jī)關(guān)目前也正在審議若干件與新能源技術(shù)有關(guān)的兩黨議案。由于有選民的支持,這些州都對(duì)新能源技術(shù)持鼓勵(lì)態(tài)度。

再回來說說《巴黎協(xié)定》。特朗普政府即使退出《巴黎協(xié)定》,也無法阻止新能源技術(shù)在全球的繁榮發(fā)展。但通過退約和阻礙新能源技術(shù)在美國(guó)的部署,特朗普政府卻必將削弱美國(guó)企業(yè)在快速增長(zhǎng)的新能源市場(chǎng)上與其他194個(gè)簽約國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的能力。這還是特朗普標(biāo)榜的“美國(guó)第一”嗎?抑或是將舊能源產(chǎn)業(yè)的既得利益者放在了第一位,將美國(guó)的利益放在了倒數(shù)第一位?究竟何去何從,特朗普必須做出選擇。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

本文作者Jeff McDermott是美國(guó)綠色科技資本咨詢公司(Greentech Capital Advisors)任事股東,曾任瑞銀投行部門全球聯(lián)合主席。

譯者:樸成奎

Adopted in 2015, the historic Paris Agreement brought together 195 nations to ambitiously address the impacts and causes of climate change. Donald Trump is now considering withdrawing from it, which would not only have ramifications on new energy technology efforts, but on American economic progress.

Pulling out of the Paris Agreement means the country won’t have to reduce its carbon emissions, which means it won’t have to invest in new wind, solar, or energy-efficiency technologies. But those technologies are where the job growth is. Solar jobs—which require lots of people to put panels on roofs—grew 25% last year, while wind jobs grew 32%, according to the U.S. Department of Energy's 2017 U.S. Energy and Employment Report. Those two industries now employ nearly a half million Americans. Coal mining is mostly done by machine, and now employs just 74,000 people, a decline of 39% from 2009. Because coal mining is largely mechanized, those jobs are not coming back even if we burn more coal. Wind and solar are where the jobs are, and if we don’t have to reduce emissions, they won’t grow as fast.

In communications, defense, and other industries, America has created jobs and enormous wealth by leading in technology advancement. It makes no sense for the Trump administration to throttle new energy technology—wind and solar, batteries for electricity storage, smart grids, and electric vehicles, among others.

If America walks away from the Paris Agreement, it will walk away alone. According to the International Energy Agency, the other 194 signatory countries believe in climate change and, collectively, will invest $7.4 trillion from 2016 through 2040 in new energy technologies—a large and fast-growing market. The U.S. should encourage new energy technology for American jobs, tax revenue, and profits. What purpose does it serve for America to double down on 20th-century energy technology, like coal and gas, when the rest of the world is committed to a future with 21st-century technology? The Trump administration should embrace economic policies that put America first.

Countries are rapidly adopting new energy technology, and it’s all thanks to cost. World Bank data shows that in 1990, there were 11 million cell phones globally. Today, there are more than 7 billion. Why? Cellular technology scaled and became cheaper, and the market expanded.

This is happening right now with new energy technology. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), in 1990, the cost to manufacture solar modules was $7.57 per watt. By 2016, the cost had plummeted nearly 95% to $0.41 per watt, and is set to decline further. Similar cost declines are true for onshore wind power, and lithium ion batteries, which enable solar and wind energy to be stored. Wrap these technologies up with cheap sensors, cloud-based software, and smart meters, and America can build a low-carbon, digitized, resilient, and economic electricity system.

If America does not build these new energy technology systems, it will lose its competitive advantage to countries that will build them. The International Energy Agency projects that from now until 2040, over 75% of all investments in global power generation capacity will be new energy, with fossil fuels only 25%. Similarly, Bloomberg New Energy Finance projects that electric vehicles will account for 35% of all light-duty vehicles sold in 2040.

America has the best research universities, entrepreneurs, and venture capitalists in the world. But if it doesn’t have the necessary deployment markets at home, its technology and manufacturing jobs will go overseas. If America embraces new energy technology, it can become a dominant engine of innovation and manufacturing excellence, and create hundreds of thousands of jobs. Fighting the cost curve of new technology is a foolish battle.

So what are the Republicans in Washington doing? Whenever threatened by these new energy opportunities, the old industry incumbents (in this case, coal-burning utilities and the fossil fuel industry) turn to politicians to thwart new technology. In the current 2018 budget plan, Trump proposes to slash funding to the Department of Energy’s Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA–E) by 93%. Rick Perry, the head of the DOE, recently ordered a study on the impact of intermittent renewable energy on the electricity grid, which is largely anticipated to serve as a justification for the DOE to take an anti–renewable position. At the Environmental Protection Agency, administrator Scott Pruitt is considering walking away from the fuel economy standards—which were set forth to make America less dependent on foreign oil—and dismantling key protections to clean air and water.

It does not have to be this way. In the 1980s, President Reagan did not heed the landline telephony incumbents when they tried to limit the ability of cellular companies to compete with them; instead, he encouraged new technology. Apple (aapl, +0.27%), Qualcomm (qcom, +2.36%), and others would certainly not be global leaders if the federal government had obstructed new cellular technology in the ‘80s. Similarly, Trump’s administration should not give in to the fossil fuel industry or damage the growth of new energy technology today.

Thankfully, Republican governors and state legislatures are embracing new energy technology. Gov. Rick Snyder (R-Mich.), Gov. John Kasich (R-Ohio), and Gov. Bruce Rauner (R-Ill.) recently signed bipartisan compromises that advance new energy technology in their states, and several bipartisan new energy deals are working their way through the Nevada State Legislature right now. These states are encouraging new energy technologies because their voters want them.

Which brings us back to Paris. The Trump administration cannot stop global growth in new energy technology by leaving the Paris Agreement. But by leaving the agreement and damaging U.S. deployment, the Trump administration will cripple American businesses' long-term ability to compete in the large and rapidly growing new energy technology market created by the other 194 signatory countries. Will it be America first? Or old energy lobbyists first, and America last? President Trump must decide.

Jeff McDermott is the managing partner at Greentech Capital Advisors and the former joint global head of investment banking at UBS.

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