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日本成為如今G7國(guó)家中增速最快的經(jīng)濟(jì)體

日本成為如今G7國(guó)家中增速最快的經(jīng)濟(jì)體

Fortune Editors and Reuters 2017-08-17
隨著顧客和公司消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)凸顯出久違的內(nèi)需反彈,日本今年第二季度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速達(dá)到了兩年多來的新高。

本周一發(fā)布的官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示,這個(gè)全球第三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體今年4月到6月的年化增長(zhǎng)率達(dá)到了4.0%,大大超出人們的預(yù)期,也是十年來日本經(jīng)濟(jì)保持連續(xù)增長(zhǎng)最長(zhǎng)的一次。這次增幅是兩年多來的新高,也是日本連續(xù)第六個(gè)季度實(shí)現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)。與前一個(gè)季度相比,該季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)1.0%,大大超出了0.6%的預(yù)期中值。政府也略微上調(diào)了第一季度的估計(jì)年化增長(zhǎng)率至1.5%。

這種態(tài)勢(shì)有望在接下來幾個(gè)季度里繼續(xù)保持,這讓日本央行充滿希望:供不應(yīng)求的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)終于得以提高工資、促進(jìn)消費(fèi)支出。美好的數(shù)據(jù)也洗刷了首相安倍晉三的政府蒙受的冤屈,后者之前一直遭到批評(píng),稱其經(jīng)濟(jì)議程沒有采取足夠的措施來振興日本經(jīng)濟(jì)。

瑞穗研究院的高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家德田秀信表示:“消費(fèi)支出和資本支出這兩大引擎在第二季度都運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)良好,這也是內(nèi)需強(qiáng)勁的原因?!?/p>

“增長(zhǎng)的速率可能會(huì)略有下滑,不過我們?nèi)匀惶幱诨謴?fù)模式。這是通脹帶來的積極發(fā)展?!?/p>

日本的發(fā)展很大程度上依賴于今年早些時(shí)候的強(qiáng)勁出口,盡管也有跡象表明個(gè)人消費(fèi)也有抬頭之勢(shì)。

在日本GDP中占據(jù)三分之二的個(gè)人消費(fèi)比上一季度提高了0.9%,高出了0.5%的預(yù)期中值。隨著消費(fèi)者大量購(gòu)買汽車和家電等耐用品,這一增速也是三年多來之最。數(shù)據(jù)顯示,消費(fèi)者在外出就餐上的花費(fèi)也比以往更多。這些令人振奮的跡象都表明消費(fèi)支出已不再是日本經(jīng)濟(jì)前景中薄弱的一環(huán)。員工工資提高了0.7%,也是去年第三季度以來增加最多的一次。企業(yè)投資額度也超出了預(yù)期。

相比之下,在4月至6月,外部需求使得GDP的增速減少了0.3%,因?yàn)檫M(jìn)口額有所增加。這一點(diǎn)值得注意,因?yàn)槿毡就蕾嚦隹趤硗苿?dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。

三菱日聯(lián)-摩根士丹利聯(lián)合證券的高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)師宮崎弘志表示:“經(jīng)濟(jì)在沒有出口增長(zhǎng)的情況下?lián)碛腥绱舜蟮臐q幅,證明我們的基礎(chǔ)很牢固?!?/p>

“消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)在下個(gè)季度可能會(huì)稍微減速,但是消費(fèi)支出的恢復(fù)基礎(chǔ)已經(jīng)建立起來了?!?/p>

日本經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)大臣茂木敏充對(duì)于內(nèi)需的前景更加謹(jǐn)慎,并表示會(huì)采取更多措施提振經(jīng)濟(jì)。

他對(duì)記者表示:“如果你問我個(gè)人消費(fèi)是否已經(jīng)完全恢復(fù),我認(rèn)為在一些領(lǐng)域它還不夠強(qiáng)勁,需要政策繼續(xù)跟進(jìn)?!?/p>

盡管日本經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)超預(yù)期,但日本央行短期內(nèi)應(yīng)該不會(huì)取消其大規(guī)模刺激項(xiàng)目,因?yàn)橥浄热匀缓苋?。自?013年4月采用量化寬松政策以來,日本央行已經(jīng)推遲了六次達(dá)到2%的目標(biāo)通脹率的期限,其部分原因就在于疲軟的消費(fèi)支出。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:嚴(yán)匡正

The world's third-largest economy expanded by a much stronger-than-expected annualized rate of 4.0 percent in April-June, posting its longest uninterrupted run of growth in a decade, official data showed Monday. That was the fastest growth in over two years, and the sixth straight quarter of expansion. Compared to the previous quarter, the economy expanded 1.0 percent, well above a median estimate of 0.6 percent. The government also slightly revised upwards its estimate of first-quarter growth to an annualised 1.5%.

Activity is expected to continue to improve in coming quarters, offering the Bank of Japan hope that a tight labor market is finally starting to boost wages and consumer spending. The rosy data were also a vindication for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government, which has faced criticism that its economic agenda has not done enough to revive the country's fortunes.

“The engines of consumer spending and capital expenditure both fired well in the second quarter, and that's why domestic demand was so strong,” said Hidenobu Tokuda, senior economist at Mizuho Research Institute.

"The pace of growth may moderate slightly, but we are still in recovery mode. This is a positive development for inflation."

Japan 's growth had been largely reliant on robust exports earlier in the year, though there were signs private consumption was picking up.

Private consumption, which accounts for about two-thirds of GDP, rose 0.9 percent from the previous quarter, more than the median estimate of 0.5 percent growth. That marked the fastest expansion in more than three years as shoppers splashed out on durable goods such as cars and home appliances. Consumers also spent more money on dining out, the data showed. These are all encouraging signs that consumer spending is no longer the weak spot in Japan 's economic outlook. Employees' wages rose 0.7 percent, the biggest increase since the third quarter of last year. Corporate investment also outpaced expectations.

External demand, by contrast, subtracted 0.3 percentage point from GDP growth in April-June in part due to an increase in imports. This is notable because Japan usually relies on exports to drive growth.

"The fact that the economy was able to grow this much without gains in exports shows our fundamentals are solid," said Hiroshi Miyazaki, senior economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

"Consumption gains could slow a little in the following quarter, but the foundations for a recover in consumer spending are in place."

Japanese Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi was more cautious on the outlook for domestic demand and pledged to implement extra measures to strengthen the economy.

"If you ask me whether private consumption has fully recovered, I would say it still lacks strength in some areas, which will need to be followed with policy," Motegi told reporters.

While growth was faster than expected, it is not expected to nudge the Bank of Japan into dismantling its massive stimulus program any time soon, as inflation remains stubbornly weak. Since launching quantitative easing in April 2013, the BOJ has pushed back the timing for reaching its 2 percent inflation target six times, due in part to weak consumer spending.

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