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特斯拉對Model 3評分反應(yīng)過度,是否傳達出相反的信息?

特斯拉對Model 3評分反應(yīng)過度,是否傳達出相反的信息?

David Z.Morris 2017-10-30
在這次交鋒中,公司本只需保持沉默,就能傳達出更加強大的自信。

Courtesy of Tesla

對特斯拉(Tesla)而言,被評價為“平均水平”不只會感到失望——這還是一件值得去還擊的事情。

這一點在上周四體現(xiàn)得淋漓盡致。《消費者報告》(Consumer Reports)在當(dāng)日的報告中對一些新車的可靠性進行了打分,其中預(yù)測稱特斯拉新款Model 3轎車的可靠性只有平均水平。

《消費者報告》并未駕駛或測試過Model 3,其評分的部分依據(jù)在于該車在特斯拉Model S基礎(chǔ)上的升級,兩款車采用了類似的技術(shù)。更寬泛地說,《消費者報告》寫道,報告“根據(jù)制造商的歷史和采用相同主要部件的汽車數(shù)據(jù),對每款新車和重新設(shè)計的車型進行了預(yù)測。”

但是特斯拉對此無法接受,公司在當(dāng)天就作出反應(yīng),大肆抨擊《消費者報告》的評測方法。特斯拉聲稱,可靠性評分缺乏“基本的科學(xué)誠信”,部分原因在于評分者“根本沒有駕駛過Model 3”。

特斯拉的聲明還表示:“我們的數(shù)據(jù)一次又一次地證明《消費者報告》的報道一貫不準(zhǔn)確,并對消費者形成了誤導(dǎo)。”

《消費者報告》則在上周五予以了還擊,表示“特斯拉似乎有所誤解,或是搞混了我們的一些基礎(chǔ)工作。”雜志重申,其可靠性報告依據(jù)的是制造商的過往表現(xiàn),與評論或道路測試并不一樣。此外,《消費者報告》稱,“平均水平”的可靠性“對于任何上市第一年的汽車來說,都算是一個大體積極的預(yù)測。”

這讓特斯拉的反應(yīng)顯得更加奇怪。該公司對其他一些汽車廠商可能十分滿意的評分表示抱怨,并抨擊這個雜志的基本誠信,然而當(dāng)雜志給出好評時,公司又樂于引用其表述。

例如,在2015年8月的道路測試中,《消費者報告》給特斯拉Model S P85D打出了103分的高分(滿分100分)。如今被特斯拉斥之為“一貫不準(zhǔn)確”的贊美,仍然在特斯拉的新聞頁面出現(xiàn)了不下六次。正如美國全國廣播公司財經(jīng)頻道(CNBC)所言,甚至連首席執(zhí)行官伊隆·馬斯克都會在Twitter上直接引用《消費者報告》的測評結(jié)果——如果這個結(jié)果是正面的話。

特斯拉在服務(wù)上得到了頂尖的評價。最重要的是,《消費者報告》表示97%的車主都希望他們的下一輛車產(chǎn)自特斯拉(酸性測試)。

——伊隆·馬斯克(@elonmusk),2015年10月21日

這不是特斯拉第一次與《消費者報告》爭論,盡管這家汽車廠商本次的表現(xiàn)顯得尤其敏感。事實證明,公司反應(yīng)過度是有原因的。

由于Model 3似乎嚴重的產(chǎn)能問題,特斯拉目前處在特別脆弱的狀態(tài)。上周五,摩根大通(JPMorgan)將Model 3第四季度出貨量的預(yù)測減少了一半。這些問題——尤其是有報道稱一些汽車是手工組裝的,而自動化系統(tǒng)都被用在了網(wǎng)上——讓人們有理由對其可靠性產(chǎn)生擔(dān)憂?!断M者報告》甚至都沒有在可靠性評估中引用這些報告,看起來已經(jīng)算是對特斯拉手下留情了。

在生產(chǎn)Model X豪華多功能車上,特斯拉也遭遇過類似的問題,不過Model 3是完全不同的情況。正如馬斯克的長期總體規(guī)劃所述,這是特斯拉從奢侈品小眾市場向大眾市場轉(zhuǎn)型的一次賭博。如果他們無法取得圓滿成功——例如,假如Model 3沒有贏得前幾代豪車那樣的良好聲譽——就可能給公司雄心勃勃的路線圖蒙上陰影,并影響公司的巨額估值。

當(dāng)然,馬斯克和特斯拉已經(jīng)證明,他們可以克服早期的逆境,實現(xiàn)驚人甚至魔術(shù)般的成就。在這個階段看衰他們,是忽略了他們的決心和才華。不過在這次交鋒中,公司本只需保持沉默,就能傳達出更加強大的自信。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:嚴匡正?

If you’re Tesla, being called “average” isn’t just disappointing – it’s worth starting a fight over.

That became clear last Thursday, after Consumer Reports published a new report rating the reliability of several new cars, including the prediction that Tesla’s new Model 3 sedan would have average reliability.

CR hadn’t driven or examined a Model 3, but based its rating in part on improvements to Tesla’s Model S, from which the Model 3 borrows technology. More broadly, Consumer Reports wrote that it “makes predictions on every new and redesigned vehicle based on the manufacturer’s history and data from vehicles that share major components.”

But Tesla wasn’t having it, responding before the end of the day with broad condemnation of Consumer Reports’ methods. Tesla declared the reliability rating lacked “basic scientific integrity,” in part because the reviewers “have not yet driven a Model 3.”

“Time and again,” Tesla’s statement continued, “our own data shows that Consumer Reports’ automotive reporting is consistently inaccurate and misleading to consumers.”

On Friday, Consumer Reports shot back, saying, “Tesla seems to misunderstand or is conflating some of what we fundamentally do.” The publication reiterated that its reliability prediction is based on a manufacturer’s track record, and is different from a review or a road test. Moreover, Consumer Reports said that an “average” reliability rating is “generally a positive projection for any first model year of a car.” Consumer Reports’ initial press release that touted the rating even characterized it as “promising.”

That makes Tesla’s response seem doubly strange. The carmaker complained about a rating some other manufacturers might have been perfectly content with – and did it while impugning the basic integrity of a publication they’ve been happy to cite when it gives them good reviews.

That has included the perfect 100 awarded to the Tesla Model S P85D in Consumer Reports road tests back in August 2015. Accolades from Consumer Reports, which Tesla now says are “consistently inaccurate,” are still featured no fewer than six times on Tesla’s press page. As CNBC pointed out, even CEO Elon Musk has directly cited Consumer Reports results on Twitter – when they’re positive.

Tesla gets top rating of any company in service. Most important, CR says 97% of owners expect their next car to be a Tesla (the acid test).

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 21, 2015

But this isn’t the first time Tesla has sparred with Consumer Reports, though the carmaker comes off as particularly thin-skinned this time around. And it turns out there’s a reason for the overreaction.

Tesla is in a uniquely tenuous position right now, thanks to what appear to be serious production challenges with the Model 3. On Friday, JPMorgan cut the fourth-quarter forecast for Model 3 deliveries in half. Those issues — particularly reports that some of the cars have been assembled by hand while automated systems are brought online — provide legitimate fuel for concerns over reliability. Consumer Reports didn’t even cite those reports in its reliability assessment, which could be seen as cutting Tesla some slack.

Tesla had similar problems with production of the Model X luxury SUV, but the Model 3 is a whole new ballgame. It’s Tesla’s bid to move from the luxury niche into the mass market, as outlined in Musk’s long-standing Master Plan. If they can’t pull it off — for instance, if the Model 3 doesn’t live up to the sterling reputation of its luxury siblings — it could undermine that ambitious roadmap, and the company’s massive valuation.

Of course, Musk and Tesla have shown that they can overcome early headwinds and accomplish stunning, nearly magical things. Betting against them at this stage ignores a deep well of determination and talent. But in this exchange, the company might have conveyed more confidence simply by keeping quiet.

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