優(yōu)秀的企業(yè)緊跟潮流，卓越的企業(yè)預(yù)測(cè)潮流。為了幫您認(rèn)清未來(lái)，我們發(fā)掘了來(lái)自無(wú)數(shù)信源的預(yù)測(cè)和預(yù)估，并征詢了《財(cái)富》雜志內(nèi)部專家的意見(jiàn)，奉上我們對(duì)未來(lái)一年的展望。我們覺(jué)得，在這些預(yù)言當(dāng)中，最有可能實(shí)現(xiàn)的是印度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、汽車將會(huì)飛行、比特幣將崩盤——然后會(huì)反彈，直至創(chuàng)新高。億萬(wàn)富豪的財(cái)富將繼續(xù)暴漲，您將吃到人造肉，并且喜歡上它的味道?，F(xiàn)在，就來(lái)看看《財(cái)富》第5期“年度水晶球”——我們對(duì)2018年商業(yè)世界的預(yù)測(cè)。

目錄

1.特朗普的勝利與歐盟的危機(jī)

2.把你對(duì)市場(chǎng)的看法告訴我們，我們告訴你哪家投行是你的知音

3.飛機(jī)、火車和飛行汽車

4.最高法院將如何裁決

5.關(guān)注誰(shuí)，支持誰(shuí)，吃什么

6.科技行業(yè)在2018年的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和希望

7.需要了解的詞匯

8.誰(shuí)會(huì)有個(gè)好年景

9.我們?cè)?017年的表現(xiàn)如何

Good businesses keep up with the hottest trends. Great ones anticipate them. To help you discern what’s coming next, we’ve mined the forecasts, predictions, and projections from countless sources and polled Fortune’s in-house experts to bring you this look at the coming year. Our best bets? India will grow, cars will fly, and Bitcoin will crash—before it rebounds to new highs. Billionaires will blast off into space, and you’ll be eating meat with no animal in it (and you might even like it). Herewith, our predictions for the world of business in 2018, in our fifth annual edition of Fortune’s Crystal Ball.

Table of Contents

1. Trump’s Triumph, and the EU’s Crisis

2. Tell Us How You Feel About the Market, and We’ll Tell You Which Big Bank Is Your Soul Mate

3. Planes, Trains, and Cars That Fly

4. How the Supreme Court Will Rule

5. Who to Watch, Who to Root for, What to Eat

6. Tech’s Peril and Promise in 2018

7. Terms to Know

8. Who’s Going to Have a Good Year

9. How We Did in 2017

1.特朗普的勝利和歐盟的危機(jī)

在未來(lái)的一年，印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)將繼續(xù)攀升，英國(guó)微妙的脫歐談判很可能發(fā)生意外，在美國(guó)的中期選舉過(guò)后，兩黨力量回歸均衡。

1. Trump’s Triumph, and the EU’s Crisis

In the year ahead, India’s economy will climb, Britain’s delicate Brexit negotiations are likely to derail, and the U.S. will see a pivotal election.

民主黨贏得普選，但仍然不能奪回國(guó)會(huì)

民主黨將在2018年中期選舉中贏得多數(shù)票，但《財(cái)富》雜志預(yù)測(cè)，它的票數(shù)不足以讓它拿下眾議院。城市群落化和選區(qū)劃分對(duì)共和黨極為有利，即便總統(tǒng)的支持率低于40%，仍不足以讓南茜·佩洛希（Nancy Pelosi）重新坐上眾議院議長(zhǎng)的寶座。至于奪回參議院，可能性更小。

脫歐亂局致使特蕾莎·梅下臺(tái)

愈演愈烈的性騷擾丑聞和在脫歐問(wèn)題上的分歧將匯聚成為一股足以讓特蕾莎·梅政府垮臺(tái)的力量。工黨的杰里米·科爾賓（Jeremy Corbyn）將成為英國(guó)首相，他將努力完成與歐盟的脫歐談判（并希望在“新自由主義”歐盟的單一市場(chǎng)之外，建設(shè)一個(gè)社會(huì)主義天堂）。外匯和債券市場(chǎng)將遭受嚴(yán)重打壓。

波多黎各令新能源復(fù)興

颶風(fēng)瑪利亞給波多黎各造成的破壞為開(kāi)創(chuàng)新事業(yè)提供了廣闊舞臺(tái)。盡管重建該島電網(wǎng)的首次競(jìng)標(biāo)失敗，波多黎各總督里卡爾多·羅塞約（Ricardo Rosselló）表示，舊的發(fā)電系統(tǒng)一定會(huì)被由太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能供電的本地化微電網(wǎng)所取代。類似的想法還包括建設(shè)小型模塊化核反應(yīng)堆。到明年這個(gè)時(shí)候，波多黎各將開(kāi)啟一場(chǎng)全球性的可再生能源（或核能）革命，吸引來(lái)大量投資。

歐盟反壟斷官司繼續(xù)發(fā)酵

歐盟將再次重罰谷歌（Google），理由是濫用其安卓系統(tǒng)的主導(dǎo)地位。歐盟還將拒絕谷歌對(duì)操縱購(gòu)物搜索結(jié)果一案提出的解決辦法。微軟的必應(yīng)（Bing）有可能趁虛而入。

歐盟遭受更多來(lái)自內(nèi)部的攻擊

2018年初意大利選舉最可能的結(jié)果是中立派民主黨與中右翼的意大利力量黨（Forza Italia）組成聯(lián)合政府。但是，懷疑歐元區(qū)五星運(yùn)動(dòng)黨（Eurosceptic Five Star Movement）的呼聲也很高。該黨的民粹派領(lǐng)袖、31歲的路易吉·迪馬伊奧（Luigi Di Maio）想拋棄歐盟的很多法規(guī)，甚至希望徹底退出歐盟。與此同時(shí)，西班牙的法院將判決加泰羅尼亞領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人卡萊斯·普伊格德蒙特（Carles Puigdemont）犯有叛亂罪。

印度經(jīng)濟(jì)大增長(zhǎng)

全球經(jīng)濟(jì)在2018年應(yīng)該是溫和增長(zhǎng)，但印度將出現(xiàn)大繁榮。印度經(jīng)濟(jì)在2016年增長(zhǎng)7.1%，2017年預(yù)計(jì)為6.7%，明年有望增長(zhǎng)7.4%，原因之一是政府的廢鈔行動(dòng)初見(jiàn)成效。（中國(guó)明年預(yù)計(jì)增長(zhǎng)6.5%。）盡管經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)依舊存在，需要進(jìn)行更多的改革，但印度將成為國(guó)際貨幣基金組織所追蹤的增長(zhǎng)最快的主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體。

稅改通過(guò)，但GDP增長(zhǎng)不到3%

特朗普總統(tǒng)和共和黨主導(dǎo)的國(guó)會(huì)有能力為企業(yè)稅改立法，但僅靠減稅無(wú)法抵消人口老齡化、中產(chǎn)階級(jí)技能不足等不利因素。美國(guó)的GDP在2018年的增長(zhǎng)率將為2.5%。

Dems win the popular vote, but still can’t retake congress

Democrats will have the numbers in the 2018 midterm election, but we predict it won’t be enough for them to take the House. Urban clustering (and gerrymandering) favors Republicans so heavily that not even a presidential approval rating below 40% will be enough to put Nancy Pelosi back in the House Speaker’s seat. The Senate, meanwhile, is an even longer bet.

Brexit chaos brings down Theresa May

A snowballing sexual harassment scandal in Parliament and divisions over Brexit will coalesce into a force strong enough to bring down Theresa May’s government. The Labour Party’s Jeremy Corbyn will become U.K. Prime Minister and will try to complete Brexit negotiations with the EU (hoping to create a socialist paradise outside the “neoliberal” EU’s Single Market). The foreign exchange and bond markets will push back, hard.

Puerto Rico makes an energy comeback

The devastation wrought by Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico leaves the field wide open for entrepreneurial experiments. Although the first bid to rebuild the island’s power grid was a debacle, Gov. Ricardo Rosselló has said the old system could eventually be replaced with localized microgrids powered by solar and wind. A similar idea involves small modular nuclear reactors. By this time next year, Puerto Rico will be jump-starting a global renewable (or nuclear) revolution, with all the investment that entails.

EU antitrust suits keep rolling

The European Union will levy another heavy fine on Google for abuse of its dominance of the Android system. It will also reject the tech giant’s proposed fixes in its other ongoing case over rigging shopping results. Look for Bing to make inroads.

The EU weathers more attacks from within

The most likely outcome of Italy’s early 2018 election is a coalition between the centrist Democratic Party and Forza Italia. But the Eurosceptic Five Star Movement is also polling well. Its populist leader, 31-year-old Luigi Di Maio, wants to ditch many EU rules (or pull out entirely). Meanwhile, Catalonian separatist leader Carles Puigdemont will be convicted of rebellion by Spanish courts.

India surges

The world economy should grow modestly in 2018, but India will boom. After 7.1% growth in 2016 and a projected 6.7% uptick in 2017, the Indian economy is expected to balloon 7.4% next year, thanks in part to its demonetization reforms starting to bear fruit. (China, by contrast, is expected to grow 6.5%.) While economic risks linger and more reforms are needed, India will be the fastest-growing major economy the IMF tracks.

Tax Reform Passes …but GDP doesn’t hit 3%

President Trump and the GOP-led Congress are able to enact some corporate tax reforms, but find that tax cuts alone can’t quickly compensate for an aging population and an underskilled middle class. GDP grows by 2.5% for the year.

房?jī)r(jià)漲幅有限

房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)網(wǎng)站Zillow請(qǐng)100多位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家和房地產(chǎn)專家預(yù)測(cè)明年房?jī)r(jià)，普遍的回答是會(huì)上漲，但不會(huì)有2017年這么高。

2018年美國(guó)聯(lián)邦基金利率：2.25%

美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)依舊難以實(shí)現(xiàn)高增長(zhǎng)，但失業(yè)率持續(xù)走低將對(duì)工資和物價(jià)產(chǎn)生足夠的上行壓力，促使杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下的美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)一再調(diào)高利率。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的基準(zhǔn)利率將自2008年金融危機(jī)以來(lái)第一次上升到2%以上。

到明年圣誕節(jié)時(shí)的石油價(jià)格：60美元

沙特的政治動(dòng)蕩和時(shí)常發(fā)生的夏季風(fēng)暴將使原油價(jià)格在2018年出現(xiàn)大幅波動(dòng)，但是美國(guó)的頁(yè)巖油將保證美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)石油供應(yīng)充足，因此油價(jià)每次沖高之后，都可能出現(xiàn)大幅回調(diào)。明年還沒(méi)必要處理你的大排量SUV。

Home Prices (Barely) Rise

Zillow asked more than 100 economists and real estate experts where they thought home prices would wind up next year. The average answer? Up—but not by as much as in 2017.

2.25%: The federal funds rate at the end of 2018

Yuge economic growth remains elusive, but continued low unemployment puts enough upward pressure on wages and prices to prompt more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, led by new chairman Jerome Powell. The Fed’s benchmark rate rises above 2% for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis.

$60: What a barrel of oil will cost next Christmas

Saudi political turmoil and the occasional disruptive summer storm will make the price of crude fluctuate plenty in 2018. But U.S. shale oil will keep the domestic supply flowing, putting an expiration date on any price spikes. No need to pawn the SUV just yet.

美國(guó)IPO市場(chǎng)再度活躍

2016年美國(guó)首次公開(kāi)募股收入非常不景氣，只有162億美元，2017年上升至397億美元。全球性的貝克麥堅(jiān)時(shí)律師事務(wù)所（Baker McKenzie）認(rèn)為，2018年美國(guó)IPO規(guī)模將達(dá)到709億美元。能出現(xiàn)這樣大的增長(zhǎng)，投資要感謝給力的股市和科技公司。

可能發(fā)生的事件

小概率：馬克·扎克伯格（Mark Zuckerberg）將親自檢查Facebook上有關(guān)2018年選舉的帖子，了解俄羅斯人是否干預(yù)選舉。

大概率：俄羅斯總統(tǒng)弗拉基米爾·普京將在明年3月選舉中成功連任。

The U.S. IPO market jumps to life again

Last year was particularly weak for domestic IPO proceeds, at just $16.2 billion. That ticked up to a projected $39.7 billion this year, and—according to global law firm Baker ?McKenzie—will hit $70.9 billion in 2018. Investors will thank a robust stock market and tech companies for the boost.

The odds

? Long shot: Mark Zuckerberg will personally fact-check Facebook posts related to the 2018 election and learn Russian to sniff out any interference.

? Slam dunk: Russian President Vladimir Putin wins reelection in March.

2.把你對(duì)市場(chǎng)的感覺(jué)告訴我們，我們將告訴你哪家投行是你的知音

標(biāo)普500在11月16日收于2,585點(diǎn)

你認(rèn)為，股市早該跌了，“折磨人的牛市”是對(duì)投資者心態(tài)的最為恰當(dāng)?shù)男稳荩?

你的看法和高盛（Goldman Sachs）吻合，高盛預(yù)測(cè)標(biāo)普指數(shù)到2018年底將為2,500點(diǎn)。

你認(rèn)為，2017年全球股市上漲將受到“全球高債務(wù)和就業(yè)恢復(fù)緩慢的持續(xù)壓制”?

富國(guó)銀行（Well Fargo）是你的盟友，它預(yù)測(cè)標(biāo)普2018年收盤點(diǎn)數(shù)不超過(guò)2,550。

你認(rèn)為“經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)給力，衰退風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不大”？

你應(yīng)該認(rèn)可瑞信（Credit Suisse），它預(yù)測(cè)標(biāo)普2018年的收盤點(diǎn)數(shù)為2,875。

3.飛機(jī)、火車和飛行汽車。

明年，能拯救地球的零排放車輛將取得突破，火箭或許有一天可以幫助我們逃離地球。

2. Tell Us How You Feel About the Market, and We’ll Tell You Which Big Bank Is Your Soul Mate

As of Nov. 16, the S&P 500 was at 2,585.

? Do you think we’re overdue for a decline and that the phrase “?‘tormented bulls’ best describes investor mentality”?

You’re a match for Goldman Sachs, projecting the S&P will end 2018 at 2,500.

? Do you think 2017’s global rally will be “restrained by ongoing global headwinds from high debt [and] slow labor recoveries”?

You’re besties with Wells Fargo, projecting a 2018 finale as high as 2,550.

? Do you see a “supportive economic backdrop, with benign recessionary risks”?

You should get to know Credit Suisse. It projects the S&P 500 will close out 2018 at 2,875.

3. Planes, Trains, and Cars That Fly

Next year will see breakthroughs in zero-emissions vehicles that could help save the planet—and rockets that may one day help us escape it.

很多鹿被自駕駛汽車撞死

到目前為止，自駕駛汽車在新加坡、亞利桑那和安阿伯等地井然有序的大街上的行駛記錄基本良好。但在明年，隨著數(shù)百輛更多的自駕駛汽車上路，不可避免地會(huì)發(fā)生事故。袋鼠、野鹿和單車騎行者是自駕駛汽車的盲點(diǎn)。

地緣政治陰謀阻撓超級(jí)高鐵

越來(lái)越多的公司盯上了超級(jí)高鐵（Hyperloop）運(yùn)輸系統(tǒng)，它們發(fā)現(xiàn)，幾處最有潛力的地方——建設(shè)空間最廣闊和資金最充足的地方——都位于中東政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較大的地區(qū)。相對(duì)于地區(qū)復(fù)雜的地緣政治形勢(shì)，工程是個(gè)容易解決的問(wèn)題。

特斯拉起飛

Uber正在洛杉磯搞一個(gè)飛行出租車試點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目，由Alphabet首席執(zhí)行官拉里·佩奇（Larry page）創(chuàng)投的氣勢(shì)船生產(chǎn)商Kitty Hawk正在研發(fā)面向消費(fèi)者的運(yùn)輸工具。我們認(rèn)為，在2018年，特斯拉（Tesla）首席執(zhí)行官和未來(lái)派汽車大咖埃隆·馬斯克（Elon Musk）將親自創(chuàng)辦一家飛行汽車企業(yè)，加入對(duì)天空的爭(zhēng)奪。

全電動(dòng)汽車銷量在明年超過(guò)100萬(wàn)

2017年，全電動(dòng)汽車銷售為58萬(wàn)輛。咨詢公司LMC Automotive認(rèn)為，即便美國(guó)政府不主動(dòng)力推，全電動(dòng)汽車的銷售在2018年仍會(huì)大漲70%。

可能發(fā)生的事件：

小概率: 在汽車行業(yè)的鼓動(dòng)下，特朗普政府將為零排放汽車研究投入100億美元。

大概率:明年將是有紀(jì)錄以來(lái)拉尼娜現(xiàn)象最為嚴(yán)重的一年。

4.最高法院如何裁決？

美國(guó)最高法院又回到9人滿編狀態(tài)，已經(jīng)準(zhǔn)備裁決現(xiàn)任院長(zhǎng)魯思·巴德·金斯伯格（Ruth Bader Ginsburg）所說(shuō)的一系列“重要”案。以下是三個(gè)預(yù)測(cè)：

關(guān)于工會(huì)：法官將在賈努斯案（Mark Janus是伊利諾伊州公立部門的雇員，他沒(méi)有加入工會(huì)但是被要求支付會(huì)費(fèi)用于工會(huì)的集體談判。他為此起訴工會(huì)——譯注）裁定，政府雇員可以不繳納強(qiáng)制性會(huì)費(fèi)。這對(duì)工會(huì)的影響力是一個(gè)打擊。

關(guān)于不公平的選區(qū)劃分：最高法庭的關(guān)鍵搖擺票安東尼·肯尼迪（Anthony Kennedy）頗為吸人注目。他將在吉爾訴惠特福德案（Gill v. Whtiford）投出關(guān)鍵一票，判定出于政治目的而以復(fù)雜的方式重新劃分選區(qū)不符合憲法。

關(guān)于隱私：最高法院不懂科技是出了名的，但也逐漸認(rèn)識(shí)到，無(wú)休止地使用手機(jī)所帶來(lái)的隱私風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。在卡彭特（Carpenter）起訴美國(guó)政府案中，法院將裁定，警方如想獲得嫌疑人的手機(jī)定位信息，必須得到授權(quán)批準(zhǔn)。

5.關(guān)注誰(shuí)，支持誰(shuí)，吃什么

體育、媒體、食品和文化的變化和我們消費(fèi)它們的速度一樣快。

Autonomous cars start killing a lot of deer

So far, driverless cars have a (mostly) clean record cruising the orderly streets of Singapore, Arizona, and Ann Arbor. But as hundreds more hit the road next year, accidents are inevitable. Blind spots? Kangaroos, deer, and bicyclists.

Geopolitical intrigue stymies the hyperloop

As more companies set their sights on a Hyperloop transit system, they’re finding that several of the most promising spots—with the most space to build and the deepest pockets for budgeting—are in politically fraught sections of the Middle East. Engineering is easy compared with the complexities of regional geopolitics.

Tesla takes off

Uber is building a flying-taxi pilot program in L.A., and the hovercraft-maker Kitty Hawk, backed by Alphabet CEO Larry Page, is working on consumer transports. Our bet: In 2018, Tesla CEO and mobility futurist Elon Musk joins the sky-race with an aeronautic venture of his own.

All-electric car sales near 1 million next year

Even if Washington is resistant to paving the way, global sales of all-electric cars will surge 70% in 2018, up from 580,000 this year, according to LMC Automotive.

The odds

? Long shot: The Trump administration, at Detroit’s urging, sinks $10 billion into zero-emissions car research.

? Slam dunk: Next year will be the warmest La Ni?a year on record.

4. How the Supreme Court Will Rule

Back to a full bench of nine, the Supreme Court justices are ready to rule on what Ruth Bader Ginsburg described as a “momentous” series of cases. Here, three predictions:

On unions: The justices will strike another blow to the power of unions by ruling, in a case known as Janus, that government workers may opt out of mandatory dues.

On partisan gerrymandering: The court’s key swing vote, Anthony Kennedy, has a flair for the dramatic. He will cast the deciding vote in a 5–4 ruling in Gill v. Whitford that will declare the serpentine redrawing of election districts for political purposes to be unconstitutional.

On privacy: Famously tech-resistant, the court has gradually come to recognize the privacy hazards of constant cell phone use. In Carpenter v. United States, it will require cops to get a warrant if they wish to determine a suspect’s location using phone records.

5. Who to Watch, Who to Root for, What to Eat

Sports, media, food, and culture are changing almost as fast as the ways we consume them.

掐線族將達(dá)到2,700萬(wàn)

在2018年，越來(lái)越多的人將取消有線電視服務(wù)，這類人被稱為“掐線族”。到2017年底，將有2,220萬(wàn)美國(guó)人拋棄他們的有線電視提供商，比2016年增長(zhǎng)了33.2%。在明年、后年和大后年，掐線族將連續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。不過(guò)，您可別為有線電視行業(yè)的盈利情況難過(guò)。隨著傳統(tǒng)有線電視的訂戶數(shù)量暴跌，康卡斯特（Comcast）、威瑞森（Verizon）等公司的寬帶業(yè)務(wù)將出現(xiàn)大幅增長(zhǎng)。

人造奶之后又有人造肉

我們認(rèn)為，農(nóng)作物將炙手可熱。牛奶的替代品——如杏仁和大豆——的產(chǎn)量在過(guò)去5年增長(zhǎng)了45%，在美國(guó)的市場(chǎng)占有率達(dá)7%?？梢灶A(yù)計(jì)，肉類市場(chǎng)是下一個(gè)改造對(duì)象，因?yàn)槭称房萍紝⒛苌a(chǎn)出味道更像肉的替代品。目前，人造肉在加工肉和海鮮市場(chǎng)的占有率不到1%，但其增長(zhǎng)率將遠(yuǎn)超真肉。

電子競(jìng)技產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展壯大

競(jìng)技電游正在成為主流。研究機(jī)構(gòu)Newzoo稱，電子競(jìng)技已經(jīng)是一個(gè)營(yíng)業(yè)收入達(dá)6.6億美元的產(chǎn)業(yè)，在2018年將暴增40%，增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力來(lái)自商家贊助、媒體轉(zhuǎn)播權(quán)，還有門票銷售。游戲生產(chǎn)商動(dòng)視暴雪（Blizzard）今秋在美國(guó)開(kāi)辦了第一個(gè)賽區(qū)。

熱播新劇：我的聰明朋友（My Briiliant Friend）

HBO和意大利國(guó)營(yíng)廣播機(jī)構(gòu)RAI正聯(lián)合攝制根據(jù)埃萊納·費(fèi)蘭蒂（Elenta Ferrante）的國(guó)際系列暢銷書(shū)《那不勒斯小說(shuō)》（Neapolitan Novels）的第一部作品改編的電視劇，將于2018年播出，具體日期尚未公布。

熱門球隊(duì)

職棒總決賽

? 超級(jí)碗: 愛(ài)國(guó)者隊(duì)（Patriots）和維京海盜隊(duì)（Vikings）將在52屆超級(jí)碗決賽對(duì)壘。今年，棒約翰公司（Papa John’s）稱，全美橄欖球聯(lián)盟球員的抗議影響了公司業(yè)績(jī)。明年，決賽的電視觀眾將降到1.05億以下，降幅為5%。

? 職棒總決賽：洛杉磯道奇隊(duì)（Dodgers）將對(duì)壘克利夫蘭印第安人隊(duì)（Indians）。道奇隊(duì)的投資人和老板們要祈禱，他們?yōu)榍騿T提供的棒球史上最高工資（2.4億美元）能最終帶來(lái)一座總冠軍獎(jiǎng)杯。

? NBA總決賽: 克利夫蘭騎士隊(duì)將面對(duì)一個(gè)意想不到的對(duì)手：休斯敦火箭隊(duì)（Rockets）。火箭隊(duì)老板是牛排餐廳和賭場(chǎng)大亨蒂爾曼·費(fèi)爾蒂塔（Tilman Fertita）

6.科技行業(yè)在2018年的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和希望

2018年，硅谷和其他地方將出現(xiàn)不可思議的創(chuàng)新、無(wú)畏的黑客和高管的內(nèi)斗。

The number of cord-cutters will hit 27 million

The ranks of cord-cutters will keep ballooning in 2018. By the end of this year about 22.2 million Americans will have ditched their cable TV providers, a 33.2% increase from 2016. Those losses will rise next year—and the next, and the next. But don’t shed a tear for the cable industry’s bottom line. As traditional TV subscriptions plummet, companies like Comcast and Verizon are seeing big growth in broadband.

Meatless meat is the next dairy-free milk

We’ll say it: Plants are hot. Milk alternatives—think almond and soy—have grown 45% by volume over the past five years to constitute 7% of the U.S. market. Expect meat aisles to transform next, as food and tech collide to produce alternatives that taste more, well, meaty. Right now, substitutes make up less than 1% of the processed-meat and seafood market—but their rate of growth should outpace the real stuff’s.

E-Sports get huge

Competitive gaming is going mainstream. Research firm Newzoo says e-sports, a $660 million industry, will soar 40% next year thanks to sponsorships, media rights, and, yes, ticket sales. Gamemaker Blizzard opened its first U.S. arena this fall.

The hot new show: My Brilliant Friend

HBO and Italian state broadcaster RAI are teaming up to produce the first installment of Elena Ferrante’s Neapolitan Novels, the international bestselling series, for an as-yet-undisclosed release date in 2018.

The favorites

? Super Bowl: The Patriots meet the Vikings in Super Bowl LII. Despite complaints from Papa John’s, the TV audience falls below 105 million, down 5%.

? World Series: The Dodgers square off against the Cleveland Indians, as L.A.’s investor-owners pray that their payroll—the highest in baseball, at $240 million—finally yields a trophy.

? NBA: The Cleveland Cavaliers face a surprise contender, the Houston Rockets, owned by steak-house and casino magnate Tilman Fertitta.

6. Tech’s Peril and Promise in 2018

Next year, incredible innovations, intrepid hackers, and executive infighting will leave their mark on Silicon Valley and beyond.

Facebook終于承認(rèn)自己是一家媒體公司

如果某個(gè)東西看上去像鴨子，游起來(lái)象鴨子，叫聲也象鴨子，那它可能是家科技公司，不對(duì)嗎？Facebook堅(jiān)稱自己不是媒體公司，盡管證據(jù)正好相反：假新聞的沖擊、員工在做編輯的工作，每年270億美元的廣告收入。期待它在2018年不要再拒絕被稱作“媒體公司”，盡管這樣做會(huì)讓它面臨更多的管制。

蘋果打破紀(jì)錄

今年11月，蘋果（Apple）的iPhone X在數(shù)小時(shí)內(nèi)賣斷貨（后來(lái)有人在eBay上以高達(dá)8,000美元一臺(tái)的價(jià)格轉(zhuǎn)售）。2018年，iPhone X有望幫助蘋果突破它在2015年的手機(jī)銷量紀(jì)錄。

醫(yī)療應(yīng)用數(shù)量太多，讓人吃不消

目前，幾乎有所療法都有了應(yīng)用。機(jī)器人療法、糖尿病輔助治療、罕見(jiàn)病支持群組……無(wú)所不包。Mercom公司稱，全球移動(dòng)醫(yī)療企業(yè)的融資去年達(dá)到了13億美元。這一領(lǐng)域在2018年將繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，預(yù)計(jì)到2022年，全球市場(chǎng)規(guī)模將超過(guò)1,000億美元，尤其是在美國(guó)食品與藥品管理局為移動(dòng)醫(yī)療應(yīng)用上市開(kāi)大開(kāi)方便之門的時(shí)候。

特拉維斯·卡蘭尼克再度出山

美國(guó)人喜歡東山再起的故事，特蘭維斯·卡蘭尼克（Travis Kalanick）是美國(guó)企業(yè)家身上善與惡的縮影。他將在明年卷土重來(lái)。目前，他仍是Uber的董事，Uber的上市工作離不開(kāi)他，他是大師級(jí)的融資人和Uber故事的講述者。

比特幣崩盤！比特幣創(chuàng)新高！

對(duì)于數(shù)字加密貨幣比特幣來(lái)說(shuō)，2017年是標(biāo)志性的一年，但記住我們的話：崩盤即將到來(lái)。比特幣會(huì)暴跌至5,000美元左右。但是，在大跌之后，比特幣價(jià)格將在2018年底突破20,000美元。我們會(huì)打這個(gè)賭，但不會(huì)在它上面押上一切。我們相信機(jī)構(gòu)投資者會(huì)這么做，包括互助基金和銀行，它們?cè)絹?lái)越重視比特幣。

在線約會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)向視頻

隨著更多的媒體公司進(jìn)入視頻業(yè)務(wù)，交友應(yīng)用也在做同樣的事。Hinge開(kāi)始允許用戶上傳30秒電影，Bumble推出了視頻聊天功能，就連古老的交友網(wǎng)站Match.com也增加了一個(gè)新的“故事”選項(xiàng)，可以編輯長(zhǎng)達(dá)一分鐘的真人視頻。千禧一代已經(jīng)在Instagram和Snapchat上面和陌生人分享他們的生活，他們將把視頻做為常用的功能。

亞馬遜繼續(xù)吞噬世界

攜收購(gòu)全食超市（Whole Foods Market）之勢(shì)，亞馬遜（Amazon）還將繼續(xù)加強(qiáng)它的實(shí)體存在，以加快送貨。這可能意味著收購(gòu)科爾士百貨（Kohl’s）、歐迪辦公（Office Depot）這樣的大型零售連鎖公司。

各城市將請(qǐng)求這三家公司入駐

當(dāng)亞馬遜披露，正在尋找另一個(gè)總部時(shí)，公司收到了很多媒體的正面報(bào)道和免稅的承諾。更多的公司將在2018年效仿亞馬遜。Facebook、英偉達(dá)（Nvidia）、阿里巴巴，你們有什么打算？

沃爾瑪收購(gòu)更多的時(shí)尚公司

為了對(duì)抗亞馬遜，沃爾瑪（Walmart）對(duì)網(wǎng)站進(jìn)行了重新改造。它還將繼續(xù)收購(gòu)熱門電商品牌?？赡艿慕灰装ㄑ坨R生產(chǎn)商Warby Prker、服裝品牌Everlane、Untuckit等知名品牌。這些競(jìng)購(gòu)將幫助沃爾瑪爭(zhēng)取它覬覦已久的高收入客戶。

7.明年需要了解的詞匯

“松樹(shù)島”（Pine Island）和“恩懷茲”（Thwaites）：兩座移動(dòng)速度相對(duì)較快的南極洲冰山，體量巨大，一旦融化，將使海平面逐步上漲達(dá)4英寸，會(huì)淹沒(méi)很多沿海城市。兩座冰山上的冰塊正在加速脫落。

“卡芬太尼”（Carfentanil）：一種用于麻醉大象的人工合成阿片類藥，一般在亞洲的工廠生產(chǎn)，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)成為美國(guó)阿片類藥物危機(jī)中的一種特別可怕和致命的因素。

“RNA”(核糖核酸）：各藥企正在測(cè)試新的技術(shù)，通過(guò)改變RNA抑止基因表達(dá)，抗擊致命性遺傳疾病。新療法最快于2018年產(chǎn)生。

8. 誰(shuí)會(huì)有個(gè)好年景

商業(yè)和所有領(lǐng)域一樣，都有成功者和失敗者?？纯凑l(shuí)會(huì)在2018年得意或失意。

蒸蒸日上

? Lyft：這家共乘服務(wù)新創(chuàng)企業(yè)將繼續(xù)從Uber的丑聞和全力開(kāi)拓商務(wù)旅行中受益，市占率將由2017年的21%增長(zhǎng)至2018年30%以上。

? 中國(guó)的億萬(wàn)富豪：中國(guó)的億萬(wàn)富豪已經(jīng)超過(guò)了美國(guó)。和中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)一樣，他們的財(cái)富有望繼續(xù)快速增長(zhǎng)。

? 律師：針對(duì)阿片類藥物制造商的官司潮肯定會(huì)讓某些律師得利，特別是當(dāng)藥企支付數(shù)十億美元和解金的時(shí)候。

? 寵物食用大麻：這是狗用的百憂解（Prozac，抗抑郁藥物）。今年1月，合法的娛樂(lè)性大麻將在加利福尼亞出售，寵物食用大麻將是火爆的市場(chǎng)之一。

? 500美元瑜伽褲：大賣場(chǎng)確實(shí)正在垂死掙扎，但最高端的賣場(chǎng)（也就是有很多設(shè)計(jì)師品牌的A級(jí)賣場(chǎng)）仍然有著很好的增長(zhǎng)前景。

? 花香四溢：忘了南瓜拿鐵吧。全食公司說(shuō)，2018年，消費(fèi)者會(huì)瘋狂愛(ài)上玫瑰和薰衣草的香氣。

? 腰包：一般認(rèn)為，戴腰包是為了實(shí)用或省事。但現(xiàn)在，腰包已經(jīng)裝點(diǎn)了卡戴珊家族幾位女士的玉照。到2018年，它會(huì)更多出現(xiàn)在T型臺(tái)上。

江河日下

? Uber: 盡管公司在努力穩(wěn)定形勢(shì)，包括爭(zhēng)取到了軟銀（SoftBank）的巨額注資，但Uber的市場(chǎng)仍然不斷被小的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手蠶食。

? 沃倫·巴菲特的財(cái)富凈值：彭博社（Bloomberg）稱，奧馬哈先知的財(cái)富凈值在今年秋天創(chuàng)下了815億美元的新高。但由于熱愛(ài)捐贈(zèng)，巴菲特的財(cái)富明年難以進(jìn)一步增長(zhǎng)。

? 阿片類藥特分銷商和生產(chǎn)商：美國(guó)各地對(duì)這些企業(yè)的官司不斷，更不要說(shuō)越來(lái)越大的公眾壓力，它們將被迫重新考慮自己的作法。

? 銷售大麻的小店：這個(gè)行業(yè)將快速合并，許多大麻業(yè)的勵(lì)志大亨從此嶄露頭角。

? 100美元瑜伽褲：經(jīng)常鍛煉的人們意識(shí)到，穿著昂貴的衣服鍛煉沒(méi)有意義，露露檸檬（Lululemon）等休閑運(yùn)動(dòng)知名品牌的市場(chǎng)占有率將下滑。

? 送餐新創(chuàng)企業(yè)：靠風(fēng)投支持的送餐新創(chuàng)企業(yè)的末日快要來(lái)臨。問(wèn)問(wèn)Blue Apron的投資者就知道了。

? 播客：播客場(chǎng)已經(jīng)達(dá)到飽和，調(diào)整即將降臨。

9.我們?cè)?017年的表現(xiàn)如何

完全準(zhǔn)確：我們準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)到，特朗普總統(tǒng)將收回清潔能源法，廢除允許未登記的“美國(guó)夢(mèng)追求者”在美國(guó)合法工作的規(guī)定。我們預(yù)測(cè)到，經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)將使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在12個(gè)月內(nèi)三次提高利率。至于娛樂(lè)業(yè)，我們預(yù)測(cè)到一個(gè)流媒體服務(wù)將贏得奧斯卡獎(jiǎng)（亞馬遜的《海連和曼徹斯特》拿下兩項(xiàng)大獎(jiǎng)）和超級(jí)碗收視率的下降。

大致不差：我們預(yù)測(cè)新款iPhone將出現(xiàn)大幅升級(jí)，包括采用OLED屏幕，銷量也同步反彈。我們還警告，虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)技術(shù)將很難贏得消費(fèi)者的青睞。（如果你正戴著Oculus的頭盔在看這篇文章。我們會(huì)表示歉意。）

完全錯(cuò)誤：我們?cè)A(yù)測(cè)，特朗普政策的不確定性和估值高企將終結(jié)股票的長(zhǎng)期牛市。我們的關(guān)于不確定性和估值的觀點(diǎn)是對(duì)的，但預(yù)測(cè)錯(cuò)了投資者的情緒：標(biāo)普自那以后上漲了18%。此外，如果你想讓一個(gè)法國(guó)人笑出聲來(lái)，只要對(duì)他說(shuō)這幾個(gè)字：“阿蘭·朱佩總統(tǒng)”。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

以下編輯對(duì)本文有貢獻(xiàn)：Ryan Bradley, Clay Dillow, Erika Fry, Leigh Gallagher, Robert Hackett, Matt Heimer, Tom Huddleston Jr., Beth Kowitt, Adam Lashinsky, Michal Lev-Ram, Sy Mukherjee, Andrew Nusca, Brian O’Keefe, Aaron Pressman, Jeff John Roberts, Geoffrey Smith, Anne VanderMey, Phil Wahba, Valentina Zarya, Claire Zillman

本文的另一版本將登載于2017年12月1日出版的《財(cái)富》雜志。

譯者：天逸

Facebook finally admits it’s a media company

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it’s probably a tech company. Right? Facebook insists it’s not a media business, despite evidence proving otherwise: fake news frustrations, editors as employees, $27 billion in annual advertising revenue. Next year, look for it to drop its resistance to the moniker, even though that could open it up to more regulation.

Apple breaks records

In November, supplies of the Apple’s $999 iPhone X sold out in hours (only to turn up on eBay for up to $8,000). In 2018, expect the X to help Apple finally beat its 2015 phone sales record.

The sheer number of health apps will cause you trauma

There’s a health app for just about everything these days. Robo-therapy? Diabetes assistance? Rare disease support groups? Check, check, check. Global mobile health venture funding reached a record $1.3 billion last year, according to Mercom. The field will continue to boom in 2018 (the total global market could exceed $100 billion by 2022), especially as the FDA moves to make it easier for mobile health apps to reach the market.

Travis Kalanick resurfaces

Americans love second acts. Kalanick, the epitome for good and ill of the American entrepreneur, will get his this year. He’s still on the Uber board of directors, and IPO preparations will include Kalanick, a master fundraiser and spinner of the Uber narrative.

Bitcoin crashes! Bitcoin hits all-time highs!

It’s been a banner year for the cryptocurrency Bitcoin, but mark our words: A crash is coming. Expect the price of one Bitcoin to tumble from its current heights above $6,500, to around $5,000. And then, after the fall, watch the price rebound to above $20,000 by the end of 2018. That’s our bet, but we wouldn’t put all our tokens on it. We’ll leave that to the institutional investors, like mutual funds and banks, who are taking cryptocurrency increasingly seriously.

Online dating pivots to video

As more media companies make the leap into video, dating apps are doing the same. In 2017, Hinge began allowing users to upload 30-second films, Bumble launched a video-chat feature, and even good old Match.com is adding a new “Story” option, with minute-long, live-action compilations. Millennials, already primed by Instagram and Snapchat to share their lives with strangers, will embrace the features as their new normal.

Amazon Keeps Eating the World

Hot on the heels of its acquisition of Whole Foods Market, Amazon will keep bolstering its physical presence to speed up delivery. That could mean buying more retail chains with big footprints like Kohl’s or Office Depot.

These Three Companies Will Make Your City Beg to Host Them

Amazon got plenty of positive press (and offers of tax breaks) when it said it was looking for another HQ. More companies will follow its lead in 2018. Looking at you, Facebook, Nvidia, and Alibaba.

Walmart snaps up more trendy companies

As Walmart revamps its website to counter Amazon, its acquisitions of small but hot online brands will continue. Expect to see deals for stalwarts like eyeglass maker Warby Parker and clothiers Everlane and Untuckit. The bids will help Walmart reach the higher-income customer it so covets.

7. Terms to Know

“Pine Island” & “Thwaites”: The two (relatively) fast-moving Antarctic glaciers are big enough that if melted, sea levels would rise roughly four feet over time, inundating many coastal cities. Both are shedding ice at accelerating rates.

“Carfentanil”: An elephant tranquilizer and synthetic opioid, often manufactured in labs in Asia, that has become an especially scary and deadly force in America’s opioid crisis.

“RNA”: Companies are testing new tech to silence gene expression and combat deadly genetic diseases by manipulating RNA, DNA’s biological partner, with new treatments due out as soon as 2018.

8. Who’s Going to Have a Good Year

In business as in all things, there are winners and losers. Here’s what will be hot (or not) in 2018.

Trending up

? Lyft. The ride-sharing startup will continue to benefit from Uber’s scandals (and a focus on business travel), with market share speeding from 21% in early 2017 to more than 30% in 2018.

? Chinese billionaires. There are already more billionaires in China than there are in the U.S. by some counts. And, like the Chinese economy, those fortunes look set to continue their outsize growth.

? Lawyers. Someone has to benefit from the tide of lawsuits coming at opioid manufacturers—particularly if drugmakers pay out a multibillion-dollar settlement.

? Edibles for pets. Pet edibles are the next doggy Prozac. It’s just one market that will get smoking hot when legal recreational weed goes on sale in California in January.

? $500 yoga pants. Sure, malls are flailing, but the priciest among them (a.k.a. “Class A” malls, featuring racks of designer labels) still have strong growth prospects.

? Flower flavoring. Forget the pumpkin spice latte, Whole Foods says people will go nuts for flower flavors like rose and lavender in 2018.

? The Fanny Pack. Call it normcore, or call it practical. But the fanny pack, already gracing the frames of several Kardashians, will hit more runways in 2018.

Trending Down

? Uber. Despite stabilization efforts at the company (including a huge cash infusion from SoftBank), Uber will keep losing ground to its smaller rivals.

? Warren Buffett’s net worth. Sure, the Oracle of Omaha’s net worth hit a hew high of $81.5 billion this fall, according to Bloomberg, but further growth next year will be thwarted by his tendency to give it away.

? Opioid distributors and manufacturers. They’ll be forced to rethink their practices under mounting litigation filed by cities, counties, and states, not to mention growing public pressure.

? Mom-and-pop weed companies. Quickening industry consolidation will nip many aspiring cannabiz moguls in the bud.

? $100 yoga pants. Lululemon and other stalwarts of the “athleisure” craze will lose market share as people who actually exercise realize there’s no point in working out in expensive clothes.

? Food delivery startups. The day of reckoning is finally nigh for heavily VC-subsidized food delivery startups. (Just ask Blue Apron investors.)

? Podcasts. The airwaves have reached the saturation point for three guys and a Patreon account. A shakeout is coming.

9. How We Did in 2017

On target: We predicted correctly that President Trump would put his stamp on the business world by rolling back clean power regulations and rescinding rules that let undocumented “dreamers” work legally in the U.S. We foresaw that steady economic growth would prompt the Fed to hike interest rates three times in 12 months. And in entertainment, we predicted an Oscar for a streaming service (Amazon’s Manchester by the Sea won two) and a decline in Super Bowl TV ratings.

In the ballpark: We predicted major upgrades for the new iPhone, including its OLED screen, in tandem with a big sales rebound. We also warned that VR technology would struggle to gain traction with consumers. (Our apologies if you’re reading this through an Oculus headset.)

Off the mark: We predicted that Trumpian policy uncertainty and sky-high share valuations would end the long bull market in stocks. We were right about the uncertainty and valuations, but wrong about investors’ moods: The S&P 500 is up 18% since then. Meanwhile, if you’d like to make a French person laugh, just utter these three words: “President Alain Juppé.”

Crystal Ball Contributors: Ryan Bradley, Clay Dillow, Erika Fry, Leigh Gallagher, Robert Hackett, Matt Heimer, Tom Huddleston Jr., Beth Kowitt, Adam Lashinsky, Michal Lev-Ram, Sy Mukherjee, Andrew Nusca, Brian O’Keefe, Aaron Pressman, Jeff John Roberts, Geoffrey Smith, Anne VanderMey, Phil Wahba, Valentina Zarya, Claire Zillman

A version of this article appears in the Dec. 1, 2017 issue of Fortune.