湯森路透/歐洲工商管理學(xué)院的一項調(diào)查顯示，得益于活躍的消費和全球貿(mào)易，10-12月份亞洲企業(yè)信心升至近七年來的最高點。

湯森路透/歐洲工商管理學(xué)院亞洲企業(yè)信心指數(shù)代表著94家公司對今后六個月的展望。今年第四季度，該指數(shù)從第三季度的69升至78，而該指數(shù)的歷史最高紀(jì)錄出現(xiàn)在2011年第一季度。

讀數(shù)高于50表明公司對今后前景持積極看法。

澳大利亞、中國和韓國企業(yè)信心增強(qiáng)推動整個指數(shù)上升。印尼和泰國的企業(yè)信心也很強(qiáng)，這表明許多亞洲國家都繼續(xù)受益于不斷加快的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。

歐洲工商管理學(xué)院駐新加坡經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授安東尼奧·法塔斯說：“該指數(shù)表明全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的緩慢增長提高了亞洲企業(yè)的信心?！?

他指出：“亞洲反映出了全球目前的情況?！?

第四季度，澳大利亞企業(yè)信心指數(shù)從前一季度的69升至92的歷史最高點。澳大利亞執(zhí)政聯(lián)盟已經(jīng)擺脫了此前有可能讓政壇陷入動蕩的雙重國籍危機(jī)。

消費支出的反彈跡象、中國對澳大利亞金屬的需求以及其他行業(yè)資本支出的增長對企業(yè)信心也有提振作用。

作為亞洲諸多國家和地區(qū)的貿(mào)易依賴對象，中國的企業(yè)信心指數(shù)上升到了83，創(chuàng)去年第三季度以來的新高。

中國國家主席習(xí)近平今年10月在十九大上提出的市場改革讓人們樂觀地認(rèn)為，中國這個世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體可以控制房價和信貸的迅猛增長。

韓國企業(yè)信心指數(shù)從上季度的50升至83，這是2011年第二季度以來的最高點，原因是迄今為止的國際壓力延緩了朝鮮試射核導(dǎo)彈的步伐。

印尼企業(yè)信心指數(shù)從第三季度的100降至92，但仍處于高點。泰國和印度的企業(yè)信心雙雙改善，臺灣企業(yè)信心則跌至一年多以來的最低點。

資產(chǎn)價格和政治

國際貨幣基金組織和經(jīng)合組織已經(jīng)上調(diào)了今年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期，原因是許多主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體在貿(mào)易、消費開支和投資方面表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁。

但這樣的前景并非沒有風(fēng)險。本次調(diào)查于12月1-15日進(jìn)行，反饋表明企業(yè)最擔(dān)心的是資產(chǎn)價格突然回落。

美國股市今年連創(chuàng)新高，其他大多數(shù)國家和地區(qū)的股市也在經(jīng)濟(jì)加速增長的預(yù)期推動下強(qiáng)勁上揚。

一些分析師已經(jīng)指出，他們的顧慮是股價可能過高。本次調(diào)查中，來自交通運輸、醫(yī)療保健、能源和金融行業(yè)的公司也表示對資產(chǎn)價格回落感到擔(dān)心。

本次調(diào)查表明，頻繁出現(xiàn)并購的領(lǐng)域，比如科技、金屬、自然資源和醫(yī)療保健行業(yè)都認(rèn)為跨境并購受到更嚴(yán)格的監(jiān)管審查是個風(fēng)險因素。

許多公司對保護(hù)主義感到擔(dān)心，因為它不僅會影響出口，還將成為海外收購的障礙。

受訪公司中，九家企業(yè)表示他們最擔(dān)心政局不穩(wěn)和地緣政治風(fēng)險，原因是某些地區(qū)的局勢可能影響到其他地區(qū)，比如英國的脫歐談判。

泰國酒店餐飲業(yè)龍頭Minor International PCL投資者關(guān)系高級經(jīng)理Supitcha Fooanant表示：“英國脫歐的影響已經(jīng)波及英國人的出境旅游需求?！?

“我們發(fā)現(xiàn)在自家酒店入住的英國游客變少了。幸運的是，我們的多元化策略很成功，它讓我們保持著韌性，并不斷取得出色的業(yè)績?！?

表現(xiàn)較差的國家和地區(qū)中，臺灣企業(yè)信心指數(shù)從上季度的75降至50，但較小的樣本規(guī)?？赡芸浯罅酥笖?shù)跌幅。

馬來西亞企業(yè)信心指數(shù)從75降至64，原因是受訪者對消費信心有所顧慮。菲律賓企業(yè)信心指數(shù)從此前的83降至70，日本企業(yè)信心指數(shù)從75降至70。在新加坡，該指數(shù)從79下滑到了64。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

注：每個季度調(diào)查的公司可能不同。

譯者：Charlie

審稿：夏林

Business confidence among Asian companies rose in October-December to the highest in almost seven years due to robust consumption and global trade, a Thomson Reuters/INSEAD (TRI, +0.21%) survey showed.

The Thomson Reuters/INSEAD Asian Business Sentiment Index, representing the six-month outlook of 94 firms, rose to 78 for the December quarter from 69 three months before. The index reached its highest since January-March 2011.

A reading above 50 indicates a positive outlook.

Improvement in sentiment in Australia, China and South Korea drove gains in the overall index. Sentiment in Indonesia and Thailand was also strong, showing that many countries in Asia continue to benefit from accelerating global growth.

“The index shows that the slow strengthening that we have seen in the world economy has lifted business sentiment in Asia,” said Antonio Fatas, a Singapore-based economics professor at global business school INSEAD.

“Asia is a reflection of what is happening in the world,” he said.

The index measuring sentiment in Australia rose to a record high of 92 in October-December from 69 in the previous quarter. The country’s ruling coalition has recovered from a dual-citizenship crisis that threatened to throw policy-making into turmoil.

Signs of a rebound in consumer spending, Chinese demand for Australian metals, and growing capital expenditure in other sectors has also underpinned sentiment.

China, upon which much of Asia depends for trade, saw its subindex rise to 83 to reach the highest since the third quarter of last year.

The market reforms that Chinese President Xi Jinping laid out at the Communist Party Congress in October has fueled optimism that the world’s second-largest economy can manage a surge in house prices and credit growth.

South Korea’s subindex rose to 83 from 50 in the previous quarter to reach the highest since the second quarter of 2011, as international pressure has so far slowed the pace of North Korea’s missile tests for its nuclear weapons program.

The subindex for Indonesia slipped to 92 in the fourth quarter from 100 in the previous quarter but remained at a high level. Sentiment in Thailand and India improved, while sentiment in Taiwan fell to the lowest level in more than a year.

Asset Prices And Politics

The International Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development have raised their global growth forecasts for this year due to strong trade, consumer spending, and investment in many major economies.

However, the outlook is not without risk. Respondents to the survey, which was conducted Dec. 1-15, showed companies’ biggest concern was a sudden correction in asset prices.

U.S. stocks have repeatedly set record highs this year and stock markets in most other countries have rallied strongly due to expectations for faster growth.

Some analysts have expressed concerns that stock prices may be overheating. Companies from the transportation, healthcare, energy and finance sectors also expressed concern about a correction in asset prices, the Thomson Reuters/INSEAD survey showed.

Industries subject to frequent mergers and acquisitions, such as technology, metals, natural resources and healthcare, identified increased regulatory scrutiny of cross-border transactions as a risk, the survey showed.

Many companies have concerns about protectionism, which can hurt not only exports but also become a barrier to making acquisitions overseas.

Of companies surveyed, nine respondents identified political instability and geopolitical risks as their biggest concerns, because events on one side of the globe, such as Britain’s negotiations to leave the European Union, can have consequences elsewhere.

“The impact of ‘Brexit’ affected British demand for tourism aboard,” said Supitcha Fooanant, senior investor relations manager at Minor International PCL, Thailand’s leading hotel and restaurant operator.

“We saw a decline in British tourists in our hotel portfolio. Fortunately, our successful diversification strategy enables us to maintain resiliency and consistently achieve robust results.”

On the downside, the sub-index for Taiwan fell to 50 in October-December from 75 in the previous quarter, but the decline may have been exaggerated by a smaller sample size.

The index for Malaysia weakened to 64 from 75 as respondents expressed concern about consumer sentiment. Business sentiment for the Philippines fell to 70 from 83 previously, while in Japan sentiment eased to 70 in October-December from 75 in the previous quarter. In Singapore, the sentiment subindex rose to 79 from 64.

Note: Companies surveyed can change from quarter to quarter.