在瑞士達沃斯舉行的2018年世界經(jīng)濟論壇剛剛結(jié)束。過去一周，心懷世界的領(lǐng)導人、思想家、建設(shè)者、連通者和教育者齊聚一堂，而我也有了下面的一些體會。

1. 精神疾病定時炸彈就擺在我們面前。

就像我發(fā)帖說的那樣，上周三我有幸參加了一次有關(guān)精神疾病的大討論，組織方是非營利機構(gòu)Kaiser Permanente。發(fā)表在《柳葉刀》雜志上的《2016年全球疾病負擔報告》顯示，精神、神經(jīng)和藥物的使用加在一起，已經(jīng)成為世界上最大的致病因素，在人類因健康損失的時間里，這些因素占了十分之一。但華盛頓大學全球精神健康問題著名專家、美國國立精神衛(wèi)生研究所前高級主管帕米拉·柯林斯說：“盡管如此，大多數(shù)有精神疾病的人并未得到最低限度的治療?！边@個問題一方面是因為精神疾病仍然不合理、不公平而且殘酷地和壞名聲以及羞愧感聯(lián)系在一起，另一方面則是因為對這種疾病認知不足，既缺乏了解和資金，也缺乏治療渠道。但無論原因可能是什么，在任何地方都能感受到絕望情緒帶來的不斷加深的危害，比如波及面甚廣的抑郁負擔，比如自殺人數(shù)的穩(wěn)步上升，再比如對阿片類藥物的濫用已經(jīng)達到令人警惕的水平。Kaiser Permanente旗下醫(yī)療體系的研究確實表明精神疾病是多么的普遍，而人們對它又是多么的缺乏認識。該機構(gòu)首席執(zhí)行官伯納德·泰森在達沃斯的討論會上告訴我們，因為身體上的癥狀而到基層醫(yī)療機構(gòu)診治的患者中，近三分之一的深層原因看來都和精神問題有某些關(guān)聯(lián)。參加這場討論會的還有柯林斯、劍橋大學公共健康高級研究員蒂內(nèi)·范博特爾和Kaiser Permanente精神健康部門負責人唐·莫迪凱。除此之外，隨著全球人口老齡化，老年疾病也洶涌而至，比如阿爾茨海默病和其他形式的癡呆癥。精神和大腦疾病帶來的負擔正在快速增大，而且將給國家醫(yī)療體系和病人看護者增添巨大壓力。上周我主持的另外兩場健康主題會議同樣把這個問題作為關(guān)鍵話題——其中一場是探討醫(yī)療保健所謂的價值范式，另一場則是就老齡化和圣路易斯華盛頓大學醫(yī)學院院長大衛(wèi)·珀爾馬特的精彩對話。

2. 短期內(nèi)汽車可能不光會自動駕駛，它們還可能在路上燃燒。

在馬克·貝尼奧夫的Salesforce達沃斯年度午宴上，業(yè)內(nèi)外的五位觀察人士用了三分鐘或更短的時間展望了未來。Salesforce午宴是達沃斯幾場企業(yè)主辦的熱門會議之一。西門子CEO凱颯的預期屬于最明確（而且最悲觀）的那種，他警告說，我們可能“打造出歷史上最出色的社會”，并愉快地“完成第四次工業(yè)革命”，也有可能構(gòu)建歷史上最憤怒的社會，有被落在后面并陷入痛苦的成員以及“迄今為止規(guī)模最大的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)”。他認為不會存在“中間立場，我們不光會有自動駕駛汽車，還會看到被點著的汽車。”西門子的員工人數(shù)超過谷歌、蘋果公司、微軟和Facebook的總和，而作為負責人的凱颯表示，在人工智能、機器人和數(shù)字化全面到來的時代，新經(jīng)濟必須讓那些受到顛覆而失去目前工作的勞動者走上有價值而且必不可少的工作崗位，“我們得弄明白對自己人該怎么辦”。

3. 人人都愛區(qū)塊鏈。

世界經(jīng)濟論壇通勤巴士載著與會人員往返于酒店和會議中心之間。在車上，人們用各種語言聊著天。這讓我們美國人再次意識到，只要求掌握英語會失去什么樣的機會（瑞士有四種官方語言，近三分之二的瑞士人每周至少要用其中的兩種 ）。但在這個混雜了商界顯貴、政府要人和媒體大腕的多語言車廂里，我反復聽到了一個英文單詞——區(qū)塊鏈。沒錯，它也出現(xiàn)在了一個接一個的談論會上。我的結(jié)論？那當然是大家都對區(qū)塊鏈技術(shù)感到興奮。但大多數(shù)人可能都很難說清楚原因。

4. 智能數(shù)據(jù)將有助于終結(jié)瘧疾。

2000-2016年，全球瘧疾患者數(shù)量減少了60%，這得益于全球公共健康部門的巨大努力，眾多不知疲倦的非營利民間組織，坦率地說，這還得益于比爾及梅琳達·蓋茨基金會等機構(gòu)的有效領(lǐng)導和聰明而有的放矢的資金投入。上周，比爾·蓋茨就如何在2040年終結(jié)該種疾病發(fā)布了自己的看法。他說確實有這樣的可能，前提是我們繼續(xù)精神百倍地關(guān)注這項工作。其中需要的常規(guī)手段包括抵御蚊子的蚊帳、抗瘧疾藥物、能克服瘧疾現(xiàn)有抗藥性的新抗瘧疾藥物以及瘧疾疫苗（如果我們運氣好的話）……另外，坦誠布公地說，我們還需要一種對付蚊子的基因工具來改變這種非常煩人的昆蟲的DNA，從而使它要么不能攜帶導致瘧疾的寄生蟲，要么不能傳播瘧疾，要么不能繁殖（這個問題我們以后再討論），這些都符合預期。那么有哪些新許下的愿望呢？那就是更完善的精準數(shù)據(jù)供給來弄清楚瘧疾傳染的方式、途徑和原因，這些數(shù)據(jù)要針對蚊子繁多的地區(qū)，無論預防措施是否奏效，也不論我們是有了進展還是節(jié)節(jié)敗退。該基金會CEO蘇·德斯蒙德-赫爾曼說：“我們需要智能數(shù)據(jù)和分析來指明道路?！?

5. 仍想改變世界的公司。

頭腦風暴健康日報欄目乃至《財富》雜志的讀者（我希望大家都是）知道，我們逐年記錄了企業(yè)界一項甚為重要的行動，那就是把好事做好。每年，我們都會重點挑出50家大公司以及一系列很有前途的企業(yè)，它們都以某種方式把自身使命和改善地球環(huán)境的大目標統(tǒng)一起來，修補損傷，或采取其他方法來幫助人類。我們將其稱為“改變世界”名單。我們還制定了一個新的行動綱領(lǐng)并設(shè)立了名為“CEO行動”的會議來扶持這項工作。嗯，這項任務已經(jīng)在全球范圍內(nèi)正式啟動，這一點非常清楚，就像在達沃斯的這一周那樣。上周一晚，我有幸為飛利浦CEO萬豪敦頒發(fā)《財富》循環(huán)經(jīng)濟領(lǐng)導獎。這個獎項由埃森哲設(shè)立，而且仍由埃森哲提供贊助（我不是很清楚它怎么變成了《財富》獎項，但謝謝你，埃森哲）。在這方面，有不勝枚舉的大公司和小公司把環(huán)境可持續(xù)性放在自身戰(zhàn)略業(yè)務規(guī)劃的最前端。我很高興地告訴大家，昨晚的《財富》達沃斯CEO年度晚宴就此項任務傳遞出了同樣明確的信息。

6. 意外：科技也許能讓人類變得更好。

“科技會發(fā)現(xiàn)愛你的那個聲音?！边@是音樂人/藝術(shù)家/詩人Will.i.am的預言，它富有創(chuàng)造性，卻又因為發(fā)自肺腑而顯得奇怪。Will.i.am（和凱颯一樣）是參加昨天Salesforce午宴的倡導者之一，他說新的數(shù)字設(shè)備急于和我們的生活扯上關(guān)系，而我們還會淹沒在其中。但不知怎的，在這個冷酷的機器隊列中，總有人對你說話的方式與眾不同，聆聽你說話的方式也與眾不同。那就是愛你的那個人，而且這有助于你重新發(fā)現(xiàn)自己的人情味。在那天下午出現(xiàn)的所有預言中，這是我最喜歡的一條。

7. 電子提詞器或許能拯救世界。

在世界經(jīng)濟論壇閉幕式上，美國總統(tǒng)特朗普發(fā)表了16分鐘的演說，用詞冷靜，強調(diào)緩和，雖然自夸之情溢于言表，但似乎放低了他“美國優(yōu)先”的強硬姿態(tài)。雖然不完全確定，但總統(tǒng)看來沒有偏離準備好的講稿，而且在發(fā)言時瞟著講臺左右的兩個電子提詞器。我覺得這是件好事。今天的地球也許因它而更加平靜。那些大國看來仍在相互貿(mào)易并交流想法。和特朗普先生發(fā)表演講前相比，世界經(jīng)濟論壇這個概念的分裂色彩減弱了那么一絲。我覺得達沃斯的這個著名論壇明年還會開，而且我也希望自己能再次參與其中。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審稿：夏林

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The 2018 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, just wrapped up a short time ago. Here are a few things I learned over the past week during this gathering of globally minded leaders, thinkers, builders, connectors, and teachers.

1. The mental health disorder time bomb is upon us.

As I mentioned in post, I was fortunate to participate in a powerful discussion on mental health on Wednesday, sponsored by the nonprofit Kaiser Permanente. When taken together, mental, neurological, and substance use (MNS) disorders are the world’s leading cause of disability, according to the 2016 Global Burden of Disease study, which is published annually in The Lancet; they’re responsible for one in every 10 lost years of human health. But “despite this, most people with a mental disorder do not receive minimally adequate care,” says Pamela Collins, a renowned expert on global mental health issues at the University of Washington and a former top official at the National Institute of Mental Health. Blame the above, in part, on the stigma and shame that is still—irrationally, unfairly, and cruelly—associated with mental illness; blame the rest on a lack of recognition of the diseases in question, a lack of understanding, a lack of funding, and a lack of access to care. But whatever the reasons may be, the harm of hopelessness is being felt everywhere and in greater amounts—from the widespread burden of depression to steadily increasing suicide rates to the alarming epidemic of opioid misuse. A study of Kaiser Permanente’s own care system, indeed, showed how pervasive and unrecognized mental health issues can be. KP CEO Bernard Tyson told our Davos panel—which also included Collins, the University of Cambridge’s Tine Van Bortel, and KP’s mental health leader, Don Mordecai—that in nearly a third of primary care visits for patients presenting with physical symptoms, the underlying cause appeared to be related in some way to a mental health issue. Throw into this mix the coming deluge of age-related disorders like Alzheimer’s and other forms of dementia, as populations around the world get grayer, and you have a fast-growing burden of mind and brain disease that will fall heavily on both national healthcare systems and family caregivers. This was also a key point brought up in two more health sessions I moderated this week—one on the so-called “value” paradigm in healthcare and the other, a fascinating conversation about aging with Dr. David Perlmutter, dean of the Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis.

2. Cars won’t just be autonomous in the near future, they may also be burning in the street.

At Marc Benioff’s annual Salesforce lunch in Davos—one of several hot-ticket events the company hosts at the Swiss gabfest each year—five seers from industry and beyond offered visions of the future…in three minutes or less. Joe Kaeser, CEO of Siemens, had one of the starker (and darker) predictions, warning that we will likely “have either the best society ever built”—with a happily “completed Fourth Industrial Revolution”—or one of the angriest: a world with bitter, left-behind citizens and “the biggest trade war we’ve ever had.” There will be “no middle ground,” he said. “We’ll not only have self-driving cars, we’ll have burning cars.” Kaeser, who leads a company with more employees than Google, Apple, Microsoft, and Facebook combined, said the new economy must find worthy and essential roles for the untold millions of current workers who will be disrupted out of their jobs when the age of AI, robotics, and digi-everything fully arrives. “We have to figure out what to do with our people,” he said.

3. Everybody loves blockchain.

The World Economic Forum shuttle buses that ferry meeting-goers from hotels to the Congress Center and back are rolling vessels of small talk in a Babel of tongues. It’s a reminder of what a missed opportunity it is that we Americans aren’t required to be proficient in anything but English. (In Switzerland, a land of four official languages, nearly two-thirds of citizens speak at least two of them every week.) But in this polygot melting pot of business pooh-bahs, government grandees, and media loudmouths, there was one English word I heard over and over: “blockchain.” And yes, it came up in one panel discussion after the next. The bottom line? Everyone is excited about blockchain technology, naturally. Most would be hard-pressed to tell you why.

4. Smart data will help end malaria.

From 2000 to 2016, the number of malaria cases worldwide dropped 60%, thanks to a large global public health effort, a number of tireless nonprofit NGOs—and frankly, effective leadership and smart, targeted spending from organizations like the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The first of those two Gates, Bill, offered his take this week on what would allow us to eliminate this scourge by 2040—which is a real possibility, he says, if we keep relentless energy and focus on the effort. As expected, it will require the usual arsenal of anti-mosquito bed nets, anti-malaria drugs, new anti-malaria drugs that can overcome resistance to existing anti-malaria drugs, an anti-malaria vaccine (if we’re lucky)…and probably, if we’re being wholly candid, an anti-mosquito genetic tool that will rewire this much-despised insect’s DNA to prevent the breed from either carrying the malaria-causing parasite, spreading the disease, or reproducing. (We’ll save that debate for another time.) So what’s new on the wish list? More sophisticated precision data tools to understand how, where, and why infections are spreading, where mosquito populations are thriving, whether prevention strategies are working or not, and where we’re making progress or backsliding. Said Sue Desmond-Hellmann, CEO of the Gates foundation: “We need smart data and analytics to guide the path.”

5. Companies still want to make a difference.

Readers of Brainstorm Health Daily—and of Fortune on the whole (which I hope you all are…)—know that we have chronicled a deeply important movement in the corporate world: an effort to do well while doing good. Each year, we highlight 50 big companies and a bunch of up-and-coming ones who have aligned their corporate mission in some way with the broader one of improving the planet, fixing what’s broken, and otherwise helping humankind. We call it the “Change the World” list, and we’ve created a new live-action program and conference to foster this work, called The CEO Initiative. Well, as was eminently clear in a week at Davos, this imperative is alive and kicking on a global scale. On Monday night, I had the privilege of awarding the Fortune Award for Circular Economy Leadership to the CEO of Philips, Frans van Houten. The recognition program, which was created and is still sponsored by Accenture (I’m not quite sure how this became a “Fortune” award—but thanks, Accenture), was replete with examples of companies large and small putting environmental sustainability at the forefront of their strategic business planning. And last night, at Fortune’s annual CEO dinner at Davos, the message on mission was just as resounding, I’m happy to report.

6. Surprise: Tech may make us better humans.

“Technology will find the one voice that loves you.” That was the out-of-the-box and yet strangely true-feeling prediction of musician/artist/poet Will.i.am, who (like Joe Kaeser) was one of the assembled prophets at the Davos Salesforce lunch yesterday. We will continue to be inundated with new digital devices that urgently attach themselves to our lives, he said. But somehow, in this inhumane procession of machines, one will emerge that speaks to you as no other, and that listens to you as no other. It will be the one that loves you—and that helps you rediscover your own humanity. Of all the predictions that afternoon, this was my favorite.

7. Teleprompters may save the world.

On the closing day of the World Economic Forum, President Trump delivered, in sober words and subdued tones, a 16-minute speech that, while replete with self-praise, seemed to soften the hard edges of his “America First” manifesto. Though I wouldn’t swear to it, the President did not appear to stray from his prepared remarks, glancing left and right at the twin teleprompter screens flanking the podium as he spoke. I suspect that’s a good thing. The earth is perhaps calmer today because of it. Its bannered nations are still apparently trading with one another and sharing ideas. The idea of a world economic forum feels a hair less divisive now than it did in the anticipation of Mr. Trump’s remarks. The famed gathering at Davos will live to see another year, I imagine—and I hope to come back to be part of it.