總部設(shè)在華盛頓的國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）表示，全球債務(wù)已達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的164萬億美元，按照這樣的趨勢，如果融資環(huán)境趨緊，各國應(yīng)對(duì)下次衰退可能會(huì)變得更困難，償債難度也將上升。

上周三，IMF的半年度《財(cái)政監(jiān)測》（Fiscal Monitor）報(bào)告指出，2016年全球公共和私營部門債務(wù)為全球GDP的225%，這是該組織提供的最新年度數(shù)據(jù)。前一個(gè)高點(diǎn)出現(xiàn)在2009年。

IMF財(cái)政事務(wù)部負(fù)責(zé)人維特·加斯帕接受采訪時(shí)說：“164萬億美元是個(gè)巨大的數(shù)字。當(dāng)我們說到即將出現(xiàn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)，公共和私營領(lǐng)域的高額債務(wù)就是其中之一?！?

IMF的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)展望處于2011年以來的最高點(diǎn)，如果不是全球債務(wù)帶來的陰霾，這應(yīng)屬于樂觀水平。該組織上周二預(yù)測，2018和2019年全球GDP將增長3.9%，但在隨后幾年里世界經(jīng)濟(jì)有可能受到貨幣政策收緊和美國財(cái)政刺激效用減退的影響。

私營部門債務(wù)飆升，特別是中國的私營債務(wù)，是全球債務(wù)上升的動(dòng)力所在。IMF的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，全球金融危機(jī)以來，中國幾乎占新增私營債務(wù)的四分之三。

10年前的那場金融危機(jī)讓全球銀行體系瀕臨崩潰，也讓世界經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退，IMF的數(shù)據(jù)則展示了仍在復(fù)蘇的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)所承擔(dān)的債務(wù)規(guī)模。各國政府增加開支來促進(jìn)增長，各家央行也通過購買債券等非常規(guī)手段讓融資環(huán)境變得寬松起來。

IMF認(rèn)為，債務(wù)到期后，大量主權(quán)債務(wù)可能造成政府難以進(jìn)行再融資，特別是在融資環(huán)境收緊的情況下。高額債務(wù)還會(huì)削弱各國在國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退時(shí)增加支出的能力，從而有可能拖累經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。

IMF表示，各國應(yīng)果斷采取行動(dòng)來重新建立財(cái)政緩沖，以便能在惡劣環(huán)境下提高支出水平。該組織敦促美國“校正”財(cái)政政策，從而推動(dòng)中期政府債務(wù)/GDP比例下降。美國聯(lián)邦政府預(yù)算赤字預(yù)計(jì)將在2020年突破1萬億美元。

IMF稱，去年的減稅和最近美國預(yù)算案對(duì)政府支出的提升都將惠及所有收入群體。但受益最多的是收入排在前五分之一的美國人，其后是收入最少的那20%人口。因此，上述措施可能進(jìn)一步“掏空”中產(chǎn)階層收入。

IMF表示，多個(gè)政府的債務(wù)/GDP比例已經(jīng)翻番。發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體中，這個(gè)數(shù)字超過85%的占三分之一以上。主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體中，日本去年的債務(wù)/GDP比例最高，為236%，隨后是意大利（132%）和美國（108%）。

IMF的數(shù)字同時(shí)顯示，在新興市場和中等收入國家里，債務(wù)/GDP比例高于70%的占五分之一，其中巴西（84%）和印度（70.2%）分列一、二名。去年，中國的政府債務(wù)總額/GDP比例為47.8%。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

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The world’s debt load has ballooned to a record $164 trillion, a trend that could make it harder for countries to respond to the next recession and pay off debts if financing conditions tighten, the International Monetary Fund said.

Global public and private debt swelled to 225 percent of global gross domestic product in 2016, the last year for which the IMF provided figures, the fund said last?Wednesday in its semi-annual Fiscal Monitor report. The previous peak was in 2009, according to the Washington-based fund.

“One hundred and sixty-four trillion is a huge number,” Vitor Gaspar, head of the IMF’s fiscal affairs department, said in an interview. “When we talk about the risks looming on the horizon, one of the risks has to do with the high level of public and private debt.”

The global debt burden clouded the IMF’s otherwise upbeat outlook of the world economy, which is in its strongest upswing since 2011. The fund on last Tuesday forecast expansion of 3.9 percent in 2018 and 2019, while saying in subsequent years the global economy could be impacted by tighter monetary policy and the fading effects of U.S. fiscal stimulus.

Surging private-sector debt, particularly in China, is driving the build-up. China has accounted for almost three-quarters of the increase in private debt since the global financial crisis, according to the fund.

The IMF figures lay bare the scale of the debt hangover from which the world is still recovering a decade after the financial crisis pushed the global banking system to the brink and tipped the world economy into recession. Governments increased spending to boost growth, while central banks resorted to unconventional methods to ease financing conditions, such as buying bonds.

High levels of sovereign debt could make it difficult for governments to refinance when their debt reaches maturity, especially if financing conditions tighten, the IMF said. Large debts also impede the ability of nations to increase spending if their economies fall into recession, and may cause a drag on growth, according to the fund.

The IMF said countries should take decisive action to rebuild their fiscal buffers so they can increase spending during hard times. The fund urged the U.S., whose budget deficit is expected to surpass $1 trillion by 2020, to “recalibrate” its fiscal policy so government debt-to-GDP levels decline over the medium term.

The combination of last year’s tax cuts and increased government spending in a recent U.S. budget deal will benefit all income groups, the IMF said. However, those in the top quintile of incomes would benefit the most, followed by those in the bottom quintile, the fund said. As a result, the measures may contribute to the further “hollowing out” of middle-class incomes, it said.

Many governments have troubling debt-to-GDP levels, according to the fund. More than one-third of advanced economies had debt-to-GDP levels above 85 percent, three times more nations than in 2000, the IMF said. Among major economies, Japan had the highest debt-to-GDP level last year, at 236 percent, followed by Italy at 132 percent and the U.S. at 108 percent.

Meanwhile, a fifth of emerging markets and middle-income countries had debt levels above 70 percent of GDP, led by Brazil at 84 percent and India at 70.2 percent. Gross government debt in China stood at 47.8 percent last year, according to the IMF.