總部位于瑞典斯德哥爾摩的Spotify是全球排名第一的流媒體音樂公司，但如果看看其資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表，你可能會(huì)有受騙的感覺。盡管付費(fèi)用戶（7500萬，仍在增長）和收入穩(wěn)步增加（上季度約13.6億美元），Spotify仍在虧損。2018年前三個(gè)月虧損4900萬美元左右，原因并非無法控制支出，而是供應(yīng)商失控。是的，沒錯(cuò)：隨著Spotify發(fā)展，向唱片公司和其他提供商的版稅支出也會(huì)增加。而相關(guān)邊際成本也是Spotify盈利的基礎(chǔ)。

其實(shí)沒必要如此。另一家流媒體明星公司Netflix就能做到一邊維持用戶增長，一邊控制住劇集費(fèi)用?？上potify做不到，主要因?yàn)楦叭缶揞^”——索尼、環(huán)球和華納簽訂的協(xié)議，還有與獨(dú)立音樂版權(quán)代理機(jī)構(gòu)Merlin簽署的協(xié)議。去年，幾家巨頭合起來擁有Spotify上85%的音樂版權(quán)。

是的，隨著不斷發(fā)展，Spotify是可以跟各家伙伴協(xié)商降低費(fèi)用，也可以找其他收入來源。（首席財(cái)務(wù)官巴里·麥卡錫認(rèn)為，電臺(tái)廣告市場規(guī)模超過180億美元?！皠俪稣吣芟硎芫薮蠡貓?bào)?！?月他在業(yè)績發(fā)布會(huì)上表示。）但如果Spotify開始學(xué)習(xí)Netflix，發(fā)力原創(chuàng)內(nèi)容呢？Spotify能實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利么，還是會(huì)引起唱片巨頭死命反抗？

曾摘得格萊美獎(jiǎng)的制作組合J.U.S.T.I.C.E. League成員艾里克·“盧克”·奧提茲表示，由于供應(yīng)商手中掌握著大量藝人資源，Spotify不太可能終止合作。他認(rèn)為，如果平臺(tái)上沒有一些經(jīng)典藝人，例如披頭士、王子和麥當(dāng)娜等，吸引力會(huì)急劇下降?！埃ㄈ绻鏇]了）會(huì)變成小眾圈子。”他表示，跟音樂平臺(tái)Bandcamp差不多。

另一方面，巨頭們也不愿輕易割舍Spotify每月1.7億活躍用戶。不過巨頭們還有別的選擇，可以轉(zhuǎn)投蘋果音樂之類的競爭平臺(tái)?！疤O果為什么不提供一年免費(fèi)服務(wù)爭取Spotify用戶呢？”洛杉磯私募股權(quán)公司Patriarch Organization首席執(zhí)行官埃里克·希弗問道。“其實(shí)Spotify提供的服務(wù)競爭對(duì)手都能替代?！?

其他一些人則表示樂觀?！拔矣X得藝術(shù)家們都很支持Spotify?！泵绹┏谴髮W(xué)創(chuàng)業(yè)學(xué)教授大衛(wèi)·帕克表示。他指出，去年泰勒·斯威夫特就決定重返該平臺(tái)，而且其數(shù)據(jù)很方便藝術(shù)家使用。

這也意味著Spotify的優(yōu)勢其實(shí)比表面上大?！叭绻胝耶?dāng)今真正流行的音樂，”希弗表示，“Spotify上有很多真正原生流行動(dòng)態(tài)，方便你緊跟熱門?！爆F(xiàn)在對(duì)Spotify來說最重要的就是想辦法從中盈利。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

本文首發(fā)于2018年6月1日《財(cái)富》雜志。

譯者：Pessy

審校：夏林

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Take one look at the balance sheet for the world’s No. 1 music-streaming company, and you might think it’s being a little bit bullied. Despite steadily increasing paid subscribers (75 million and counting) and revenue (about $1.36 billion last quarter), Spotify continues to bleed. The $49 million or so that it lost in the first three months of 2018 wasn’t because the company can’t keep a tight rein on its own spending, but because it can’t keep a rein on its suppliers. Yes, that’s right: As Spotify grows, so do its royalty payouts to record labels and other music providers. And those marginal costs are an anchor on the Stockholm company’s profit potential.

It doesn’t have to be that way. Netflix, the media-streaming darling of a different kind, is able to keep its programming expenses locked down as its user base grows. But that’s not so for Spotify, thanks to the agreements it struck with the “big three”—Sony, Universal, and Warner—as well as Merlin, a licensing agency for independent labels. Together, the group accounted for over 85% of the music streamed on Spotify last year.

Sure, Spotify could negotiate its rates down when the time comes. It could also explore new revenue sources. (In CFO Barry McCarthy’s sights: the more than $18 billion radio advertising market. “There is an enormous payoff for whoever wins,” he said on a March earnings call.) But what if it took a cue from Netflix and began producing original content? Would Spotify finally realize its profits, or would it spark a devastating record-label revolt?

Erik “Rook” Ortiz, half of the Grammy award–winning production duo J.U.S.T.I.C.E. League, says the allure of artists’ back catalogs makes it unlikely that Spotify could cut out its suppliers. To him, the platform would become irrelevant without the inclusion of enduring artists like the Beatles, Prince, or Madonna. “It becomes a niche thing,” he says, no different than, say, Bandcamp.

It’s also unlikely that the music labels would want to lose access to Spotify’s 170 million monthly active users. Still, they could easily redirect their content to competing platforms like Apple Music. “What’s stopping Apple from giving Spotify subscribers a year for free?” asks Eric Schiffer, CEO of the Patriarch Organization, a Los Angeles private equity firm. “Everything Spotify is doing can be usurped by a competitor.”

Others remain optimistic. “I think Spotify is winning the hearts of artists,” says David Park, a professor of entrepreneurship at Syracuse University, noting Taylor Swift’s decision to rejoin the service last year as well as its artist-friendly data insights.

That gives Spotify a little more leverage than it gets credit for. “If you’re looking for true popular music in today’s zeitgeist,” Schiffer says, “Spotify has real, unvarnished info that can really tap you into what’s hot.” All the company has to do is figure out a way to profit from it.?

This article originally appeared in the June 1, 2018 issue of Fortune.