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特朗普的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)讓美國農(nóng)民很受傷

特朗普的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)讓美國農(nóng)民很受傷

Mark Zandi 2018-08-02
如果關(guān)稅讓美國農(nóng)民出口的產(chǎn)品少于其產(chǎn)量,他們的資金問題就會迅速惡化。

一位農(nóng)夫在農(nóng)田上走過,這塊田地旁邊是托尼洛入境口岸的美國海關(guān)和邊境保護(hù)局綜合大樓,因非法入境而被捕的未成年人都被安置在此。得克薩斯州費本斯,2018年6月19日。Brendan Smialowski—AFP/Getty Images

戰(zhàn)爭帶來混亂,特朗普總統(tǒng)很快發(fā)現(xiàn)這同樣適用于貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)。他發(fā)動的這場貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)爭正要把包括美國在內(nèi)的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)都拉到“兔子洞”里。但如果他不能迅速意識到這一點,美國農(nóng)民將會成為最受傷的人。

農(nóng)民們早就知道貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)會有多糟糕。他們的出口規(guī)模很大,每年向海外輸送約1500億美元農(nóng)產(chǎn)品。美國之外的市場消費了他們種植和養(yǎng)殖產(chǎn)品的三分之一還要多。當(dāng)然,美國也進(jìn)口很多食品,但農(nóng)業(yè)仍是為數(shù)不多的實現(xiàn)高額貿(mào)易順差的行業(yè),具有很強(qiáng)的生產(chǎn)力和競爭力。美國農(nóng)民的產(chǎn)品地球人都需要。

而對農(nóng)民來說,沒有比貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)更糟糕的了。對他們而言,其他國家對美國大豆、豬肉或橙汁征收關(guān)稅就像一把扎在心頭的尖刀。而這正是中國和其貿(mào)易伙伴國就特朗普的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)采取的對策。

我們的總統(tǒng)知道自己的這場農(nóng)業(yè)戰(zhàn)爭在經(jīng)濟(jì)和政治領(lǐng)域的影響,他的應(yīng)對措施是為農(nóng)民撥款120億美元。農(nóng)民們將從9月開始拿到這筆來自納稅人的緊急救助資金,而且無需獲得美國國會批準(zhǔn)。部分農(nóng)民將直接獲得現(xiàn)金,但也有一部分撥款將投入現(xiàn)有項目,以采購過剩的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品,并將其分配給食品救濟(jì)機(jī)構(gòu)。在海外推廣美國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的營銷活動可能也會獲得更多資金。

而要得到此項補(bǔ)償,農(nóng)民可能得對特朗普政府畢恭畢敬。制造商現(xiàn)在就在這么做,以便獲得特朗普的鋼鋁關(guān)稅豁免。他們正在尷尬地想著辦法,為的是讓特朗普任命的官員相信應(yīng)該緩征涉及到他們的關(guān)稅。對于此項補(bǔ)償,農(nóng)民們不會喜歡,特別是考慮到他們最終從政府嘴里摳出來的錢實在是太少,來的也實在是太遲了。

這仍是一場低烈度戰(zhàn)爭,至少目前如此。美國對價值約1000億美元的進(jìn)口商品提高了關(guān)稅,這些商品來自中國這樣的競爭對手以及加拿大、歐洲、日本和墨西哥這樣的友邦。但我們的總統(tǒng)已經(jīng)威脅說要顯著擴(kuò)大戰(zhàn)爭規(guī)模,提高所有中國商品的稅率,同時對共計三分之一的進(jìn)口車征收更高的關(guān)稅。

我們的貿(mào)易伙伴并未束手就擒,他們已經(jīng)開始對美國出口商品征收對等關(guān)稅。中國方面還讓人民幣兌美元匯率下跌,從而部分抵消美國關(guān)稅上升的影響。另外,中國還采取了非關(guān)稅措施,比如對運(yùn)抵中國港口的美國農(nóng)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)行更嚴(yán)格的檢查。

我們的總統(tǒng)曾傲嬌地宣稱打贏貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)很容易,而以上就是到目前為止的情況。

對受了傷的美國貿(mào)易伙伴來說,美國農(nóng)民是很便捷的政治目標(biāo),這讓問題變得更為復(fù)雜。美國鄉(xiāng)村一般都是特朗普的基地,在大選中投票支持他的比例很高。其他國家發(fā)現(xiàn),跟特朗普討價還價的最有效辦法就是讓那些投票支持他的人過得艱難起來,這么想一點兒也沒錯。

這種策略已經(jīng)開始奏效。農(nóng)民權(quán)益團(tuán)體對關(guān)稅的抱怨之聲越來越高。他們在政治上或許同情總統(tǒng)先生,但他們需要貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)停下來。

讓他們更焦慮的是,美國農(nóng)業(yè)帶的資金狀況已經(jīng)捉襟見肘。甚至是在貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)開打前,大多數(shù)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的價格已經(jīng)比幾年前的高點低了幾乎兩成。四年來,農(nóng)業(yè)用地的價值一直原地踏步,就足以體現(xiàn)這種壓力。如果關(guān)稅讓農(nóng)民出口的產(chǎn)品少于其產(chǎn)量,他們的資金問題就會迅速惡化。

我們的總統(tǒng)想把貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)作為談判手段,以迫使其他國家讓步。他讓大家耐心一點兒。但如果這是一種盡人皆知的談判手段,那它還會有什么用呢?會有人認(rèn)為中國或者美國的其他任何貿(mào)易伙伴還不知道我們的總統(tǒng)想干什么嗎?

特朗普確實剛剛和歐洲達(dá)成停戰(zhàn)協(xié)議,但這又有什么用?除了繼續(xù)進(jìn)行磋商的承諾,他在歐洲兄弟那里一無所獲。就算美國和歐洲像我們的總統(tǒng)規(guī)劃的那樣互相取消所有關(guān)稅,這對我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)也沒什么實質(zhì)性影響。美國和歐洲的全部貿(mào)易關(guān)稅都發(fā)生變化也不足以產(chǎn)生重大影響。

或許,中國有問題。但威脅讓貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)升級只會讓兩個國家的大好經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢都面臨風(fēng)險。

希望這120億美元撥款不會讓我們的農(nóng)民陷入沉默,希望他們能繼續(xù)給特朗普施加壓力,讓他結(jié)束自己的貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)。他們的呼聲也許是總統(tǒng)唯一會聆聽的理性聲音。(財富中文網(wǎng))

本文作者馬克·贊迪是穆迪分析(Moody’s Analytics)的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家。

譯者:Charlie

審校:夏林

War is messy, and President Trump is quickly figuring out that this also applies to trade wars. The president has incited a trade war that is taking the entire global economy, including ours, down the rabbit hole. Our farmers will be the most serious casualty if he doesn’t figure this out, and soon.

Farmers already know how messy the trade war can be. They are big exporters, shipping some $150 billion in agricultural products overseas each year. Well over one-third of everything they grow or raise is consumed by foreigners. The U.S. also imports a lot of food, but agriculture is one of the few industries that runs a sizable trade surplus. The industry is uber-productive and competitive. American farmers produce something everyone on the planet wants.

Nothing could be worse for farmers than a trade war. If other countries impose tariffs on U.S. soybeans, pork, or orange juice, it is a dagger in the heart of the business of being a farmer. This is exactly what China and our other trading partners are doing in retaliation to Trump’s trade war.

The president understands the economic and political fallout of his war on agriculture, and his response is to cut a $12 billion check to farmers. The emergency bailout from taxpayers will become available in September, and does not need approval from Congress. Some farmers will get direct payments, but the money will also go to fund a program already in place to purchase surplus farm products and distribute them to food banks. Marketing efforts to promote U.S. agricultural products overseas may also get more funding.

To get a check, farmers will likely have to go hat-in-hand to Washington. This is what manufacturers are doing now to get relief from Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs. They are in the awkward position of trying to convince Trump-appointed bureaucrats that they deserve a reprieve from the tariffs. Farmers will love that (not), particularly since the money they ultimately pry from Washington will be way too little, too late.

It’s still a low-intensity war, at least so far, with tariff hikes on about $100 billion worth of imported goods into the U.S. from foes like China, as well as friends, including Canada, Europe, Japan, and Mexico. But the president has threatened to significantly escalate the war, imposing higher tariffs on all imports from China and on auto imports—in all, about one-third of all that we import.

Our trading partners aren’t taking this lying down, and have matched Trump’s tariffs one-for-one on U.S. exports to their countries. The Chinese have also allowed their currency to fall in value against the dollar, offsetting some of the bite of higher U.S. tariffs. And they’ve imposed non-tariff measures such as stiffer inspections on U.S. agricultural products arriving at Chinese ports.

So much for the president’s haughty pronouncement that a trade war would be easy to win.

Complicating things for U.S. farmers is that they are convenient political targets for our aggrieved trading partners. Rural America tends to be Trump country, voting in high percentages for the president in the election. Other countries rightly figure there is no better way to gain leverage with Trump than to make life difficult for those who vote for him.

The strategy is working. Trade groups looking out for the farmers’ interests are complaining increasingly loudly about the tariffs. They may be politically sympathetic to the president, but they need the trade war to end.

Adding to their angst, the nation’s farm belt is already struggling financially. Even before the trade war broke out, prices for most agricultural products were down almost 20% from the peaks of a few years ago. Farmland values reflect the stress; they have gone nowhere over the last four years. If farmers export less of what they produce because of the tariffs, their financial problems will quickly mount.

The president holds out hope that the trade war is a negotiating ploy to pry concessions from the rest of the world. Be patient, he says. But if it is a negotiating ploy, and everyone knows it, how good a ploy could it be? Does anyone think that the Chinese or any other trading partners fail to understand what the president is up to?

Trump did just negotiate a truce with the Europeans, but to what end? He got nothing for all the bother except a promise from the Europeans to keep talking. Even if the U.S. and Europe dropped all of their tariffs on each other—the president’s stated objective—it will have no meaningful impact on our economy. The differences in tariffs across all trade between the U.S. and Europe are not large enough to matter.

Maybe China is a problem. But threatening an escalating trade war only threatens the economic success of both countries.

Hopefully our farmers won’t be silenced by $12 billion and keep the pressure on Trump to end his trade war. They may be the only reasoned voice he will listen to.

Mark Zandi is chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

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