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失業(yè)率降低,經(jīng)濟(jì)提速,為什么特朗普還要大搞貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)?

失業(yè)率降低,經(jīng)濟(jì)提速,為什么特朗普還要大搞貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)?

David Meyer 2018-09-12
貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)中受到損失的,很可能不止是總統(tǒng)的貿(mào)易對(duì)手。

特朗普對(duì)價(jià)值2,000億美元的中國(guó)商品進(jìn)行新一輪征稅的議案已經(jīng)在上周四結(jié)束了公眾意見(jiàn)征集期。這意味著25%的關(guān)稅政策隨時(shí)可能落地,盡管彭博社報(bào)道稱美國(guó)的大型科技公司和零售商正在做著最后的努力,試圖讓總統(tǒng)回心轉(zhuǎn)意。

思科(Cisco)和惠普(Hewlett-Packard)等公司表示,對(duì)中國(guó)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)設(shè)備征收額外關(guān)稅,最終會(huì)導(dǎo)致美國(guó)用戶的上網(wǎng)成本增加。美國(guó)零售業(yè)聯(lián)合會(huì)(National Retail Federation)表示生產(chǎn)商和中小型公司也會(huì)受到成本上漲的影響。中國(guó)宣稱,如果白宮堅(jiān)持提高關(guān)稅,必將采取報(bào)復(fù)措施。這一切未知因素交織在一起,也難怪美國(guó)的首席執(zhí)行官?gòu)匾闺y眠了。

與此同時(shí),特朗普現(xiàn)在還暗示要與日本開(kāi)啟新一輪貿(mào)易糾紛。他說(shuō),自己與日本領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層關(guān)系不錯(cuò),不過(guò)“如果我告訴他們要付出怎樣的代價(jià),這種關(guān)系就會(huì)畫(huà)上句號(hào)”。(順帶一提,這種“不錯(cuò)的關(guān)系”包括特朗普提醒日本首相安倍晉三“我可還記得珍珠港事件”,以及威脅要送給后者“2,500萬(wàn)墨西哥人”讓他很快下臺(tái)。)

所以,與美國(guó)存在未決爭(zhēng)端的國(guó)家不僅有中國(guó),也有日本,此外還包括歐盟、土耳其、加拿大和墨西哥——直到美墨貿(mào)易協(xié)定的細(xì)節(jié)敲定,雙方簽字為止。

總統(tǒng)表示,這些斗爭(zhēng)是必要的,因?yàn)椤皫缀趺總€(gè)與美國(guó)做生意的國(guó)家,都在貿(mào)易上讓美國(guó)損失了數(shù)十億美元”。不過(guò)與此同時(shí),美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)卻在持續(xù)發(fā)展,工作崗位不斷增加。今天的就業(yè)報(bào)告顯示的失業(yè)率可能會(huì)低達(dá)3.8%,而崗位數(shù)量增速放緩,也主要是因?yàn)闆](méi)有那么多人來(lái)填補(bǔ)空缺的崗位。盡管高盛(Goldman Sachs)預(yù)測(cè)由于關(guān)稅的不確定性,一些公司也會(huì)暫緩招聘。

全世界都在等待特朗普的貿(mào)易決定,而亞洲市場(chǎng)惶恐不安也并不令人驚訝。不過(guò)會(huì)受到損失的,很可能不止是總統(tǒng)的貿(mào)易對(duì)手。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:嚴(yán)匡正?

The public comment period for President Donald Trump’s proposed new round of tariffs on Chinese goods—worth an escalation-tastic $200 billion this time—ended Thursday. That means the 25% levies could start to hit any time now, although Bloomberg reports that big American tech companies and retailers have been making a last-minute effort to change the president’s mind.

Companies such as Cisco and Hewlett-Packard say tariffs on Chinese networking equipment will ultimately make it more expensive for American consumers to access the Internet. The National Retail Federation says manufacturers and small-to-mid-sized firms will also bear the brunt of raised costs. China is promising to retaliate if the White House moves ahead with the new tariffs. No surprise that U.S. CEOs are losing sleep over all the unknowns being thrown into the mix.

Meanwhile, Trump is now hinting at a new trade rumble with Japan. He has good relations with the Japanese leadership, he said, but “of course that will end as soon as I tell them how much they have to pay.” (Those good relations, incidentally, have reportedly included Trump telling Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe “I remember Pearl Harbor” and threatening to depose him by sending him “25 million Mexicans.”)

So add Japan to the pile of unresolved disputes that includes not only China but the European Union, Turkey, Canada and—until the fine print is out and the ink dry—Mexico.

The president says these battles are necessary because the U.S. is “l(fā)osing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with,” but, at the same time, the U.S. economy continues to boom and jobs continue to be added. Today’s jobs report is expected to show an unemployment rate of just 3.8%, with growth in new jobs slowing mainly because there aren’t enough people out there to fill all the vacant positions—though Goldman Sachs also reckons some companies are delaying new hires because of tariff uncertainty.

As the world awaits Trump’s trade decision, it’s no surprise to see jitters in Asian markets. But it may well be that the president’s trade opponents aren’t the only ones here with something to lose.

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