世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇（WEF）新近報(bào)告預(yù)計(jì)，未來(lái)七年內(nèi)人類的工作半數(shù)都將交給機(jī)器和自動(dòng)化軟件。不過(guò)報(bào)告還預(yù)計(jì)，人工智能、機(jī)器人和精密醫(yī)療技術(shù)創(chuàng)造的新崗位可能比威脅到的崗位多。

WEF上述報(bào)告于本周一公布，研究者是來(lái)自12個(gè)行業(yè)的高管和專家。報(bào)告的結(jié)論是：當(dāng)前的所謂“第四次工業(yè)革命” 可能在全球范圍創(chuàng)造1.33億個(gè)工作崗位，7500萬(wàn)勞動(dòng)者可能失業(yè)。

WEF新經(jīng)濟(jì)與社會(huì)中心的主管薩阿迪亞·扎赫迪表示，無(wú)論是道德上還是經(jīng)濟(jì)上，企業(yè)都有必要投資為員工提供培訓(xùn)和繼續(xù)教育。“如果不積極調(diào)整，企業(yè)和員工都可能落伍?！彼f(shuō)。

科研機(jī)構(gòu)、咨詢公司和各國(guó)政府一直在努力判斷新技術(shù)對(duì)就業(yè)的影響，此舉是最新行動(dòng)。包括WEF早前發(fā)布的報(bào)告在內(nèi)，此前的一些研究都預(yù)計(jì)，自動(dòng)化消滅的人類工作崗位將超過(guò)創(chuàng)造的崗位。

然而，新技術(shù)將取代人類崗位數(shù)量方面，各研究組織的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果相差甚遠(yuǎn)。英國(guó)央行2015年的研究得出的數(shù)字最慘，稱到2035年美國(guó)和英國(guó)分別有多達(dá)8000萬(wàn)和1500萬(wàn)個(gè)人類崗位被新技術(shù)取代。去年12月麥肯錫的一份報(bào)告卻相對(duì)樂(lè)觀，稱到2030年預(yù)計(jì)新技術(shù)導(dǎo)致人類崗位的數(shù)量可能跟新增崗位相當(dāng)。

WEF的最新報(bào)告分析認(rèn)為，自動(dòng)化對(duì)不同行業(yè)的影響可能差別很大，礦業(yè)、消費(fèi)類和信息技術(shù)企業(yè)的就業(yè)可能受創(chuàng)最嚴(yán)重，一些專業(yè)服務(wù)公司所受影響相對(duì)較小。

總部位于瑞士的WEF在報(bào)告中指出，新增的很多崗位可能沒(méi)有過(guò)去的“鐵飯碗” 牢靠，因?yàn)槠髽I(yè)選擇將越來(lái)越多的工作外包，要么找自由職業(yè)者。WEF警告道，新工作對(duì)勞動(dòng)者技能的需求與現(xiàn)有技能截然不同。

WEF預(yù)計(jì)，要想把握數(shù)字技術(shù)創(chuàng)造的新機(jī)遇，大企業(yè)半數(shù)以上的員工都要接受大量培訓(xùn)。但一半企業(yè)僅打算為關(guān)鍵崗位的人員開(kāi)展培訓(xùn)。對(duì)可能因新技術(shù)而失業(yè)的員工，僅有三分之一的企業(yè)計(jì)劃提供培訓(xùn)。

WEF因每年在瑞士滑雪度假勝地達(dá)沃斯舉辦企業(yè)界和政界領(lǐng)袖峰會(huì)聞名。該組織表示，報(bào)告的依據(jù)是對(duì)企業(yè)高管、戰(zhàn)略官、人力資源專家的調(diào)查問(wèn)卷，受訪對(duì)象來(lái)自20個(gè)國(guó)家的300家全球性企業(yè)。WEF稱，調(diào)研涉及企業(yè)合計(jì)擁有超過(guò)1500萬(wàn)員工，經(jīng)濟(jì)體量占全球國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值總和的70%。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Pessy

審校：夏林

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Machines and automated software will be handling fully half of all workplace tasks within seven years, a new report from the World Economic Forum forecasts. But the group said technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and precision medicine, could create more jobs than they threaten.

In a study of executives and specialists across 12 industries, published Monday, the WEF concluded that this so-called “Fourth Industrial Revolution” could create 133 million jobs globally, while 75 million workers may be displaced.

Saadia Zahidi, head of the WEF’s Center for the New Economy and Society, said companies had “a moral and economic imperative” to invest in retraining and continuing education for their employees. “Without proactive approaches, businesses and workers may lose out,” she said.

The report is the latest in a series of efforts by academics, consultancies and governments to assess the impact of new technologies on employment. Previous studies, including an earlier one by the WEF, have generally forecast automation will destroy more jobs than it creates.

The scale of projected displacement varies enormously between research groups, however. A Bank of England study in 2015 produced some of the bleakest figures, forecasting that as many as 80 million jobs in the U.S. and 15 million in the U.K. could be lost by 2035. A McKinsey report in December produced one of the rosier assessments, forecasting jobs lost and created by new technology might be about equal by 2030.

In its latest analysis, the WEF said the effects of automation may vary substantially across industries, and predicted job losses to be heaviest in mining, consumer, and information technology companies, and less within professional services firms.

Many new jobs may be less secure than in the past, as businesses are increasingly turning to contractors and freelancers, the Swiss foundation said. It warned there’s a significant gap between the skills workers currently have and those that may be required for future new roles.

It estimates more than half of employees at large companies would need significant retraining in order to take advantage of new opportunities created by digital technology. But it said half of all companies plan retraining only for “key roles,” and only one-third say they plan any retraining for at-risk workers.

Best known for throwing an annual summit of business and government leaders in the Swiss ski resort of Davos, the WEF said it based its forecast on a survey of senior executives, strategy officers and human resource specialists at 300 global companies, spanning 20 different countries. It said these companies represented more than 15 million employees and their economies represented 70% of global GDP.