美國(guó)中期選舉的新聞盡是民主黨“占領(lǐng)”眾議院以及共和黨“保住”參議院，在這些消息背后，有件大事卻沒(méi)怎么引起關(guān)注。在各州議會(huì)，2018年中期選舉明確地“向左轉(zhuǎn)向”——沒(méi)有哪個(gè)州出現(xiàn)分裂，民主黨擴(kuò)大了地盤(pán)，從內(nèi)華達(dá)到維斯康星，從堪薩斯到緬因都是如此。

民主黨并未取得大規(guī)模勝利，但各個(gè)州穩(wěn)定而持續(xù)的“變藍(lán)”趨勢(shì)將對(duì)今后幾年的情況產(chǎn)生影響。民主黨控制了六個(gè)州的議會(huì)，包括科羅拉多州、康涅狄格州、新罕布什爾州和緬因州的參議院以及明尼蘇達(dá)州和新罕布什爾州的眾議院。共和黨則丟失了四個(gè)州的議會(huì)。民主黨還拿下了七個(gè)州的州長(zhǎng)寶座，分別是內(nèi)華達(dá)、新墨西哥、堪薩斯、伊利諾伊、維斯康星、密歇根和緬因，只是丟了阿拉斯加州。

這讓2016年的右轉(zhuǎn)趨勢(shì)出現(xiàn)了大反轉(zhuǎn)。唐納德·特朗普贏得歷史性勝利后，共和黨控制了25個(gè)州的州長(zhǎng)職位和議會(huì)，而民主黨即拿下州長(zhǎng)又控制議會(huì)的州只有八個(gè)。在2018年中期選舉前，民主黨已經(jīng)顯著縮小了與共和黨的差距，掌握了14個(gè)州，共和黨手中則有21個(gè)州。

對(duì)民主、共和兩黨來(lái)說(shuō)，上述結(jié)果的影響將持續(xù)很長(zhǎng)時(shí)間。盡管在美國(guó)各個(gè)層級(jí)的政府中，州政府有時(shí)會(huì)被忽視，但他們的決定對(duì)眼下的重大政治問(wèn)題以及明天的政治“戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)”來(lái)說(shuō)都很關(guān)鍵。

投票站出口調(diào)查顯示，選民們認(rèn)為最重要的問(wèn)題是醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)。讓奧巴馬醫(yī)改方案獲得通過(guò)以及隨后推翻該方案的斗爭(zhēng)主導(dǎo)了近10年的美國(guó)政治。但州政府一直左右著醫(yī)保法律付諸實(shí)施的方式和區(qū)域。2012年美國(guó)最高法院裁定《平價(jià)醫(yī)保法案》基本符合憲法，但同時(shí)推翻了要求各州大舉擴(kuò)展醫(yī)療補(bǔ)助保險(xiǎn)（Medicaid）的條款。

藍(lán)色州急于擴(kuò)大醫(yī)保覆蓋面，許多紅色州則不然。共和黨人利用他們對(duì)州議會(huì)的控制表達(dá)了對(duì)此項(xiàng)全國(guó)性法律的強(qiáng)烈反對(duì)，而且阻止了14個(gè)州按照奧巴馬醫(yī)改方案來(lái)擴(kuò)展醫(yī)療補(bǔ)助保險(xiǎn)。對(duì)目前美國(guó)政界最具爭(zhēng)議的問(wèn)題來(lái)說(shuō)，各州的政治很重要。

州政府和地方教育委員會(huì)同樣長(zhǎng)期控制著教育方面的重大問(wèn)題。雖然聯(lián)邦政府可以通過(guò)“懸賞”或扣留撥款來(lái)鼓勵(lì)或懲罰州教育部門(mén)，但學(xué)校實(shí)際上是在州和地方政府的掌控之下。州長(zhǎng)和州議員決定了哪些州采用對(duì)特性學(xué)校有利的共同核心課程標(biāo)準(zhǔn)（Common Core），以及公立學(xué)校學(xué)生是否可以用教育券去上私立學(xué)校。在對(duì)許多家庭來(lái)說(shuō)都最為重要的問(wèn)題上，關(guān)鍵在于誰(shuí)控制著州議會(huì)，而不是國(guó)會(huì)由誰(shuí)掌握。

最后，對(duì)今后10年的美國(guó)政治而言，尤為關(guān)鍵的一點(diǎn)是最激烈政治斗爭(zhēng)的前線(xiàn)確實(shí)要由各州來(lái)劃定。重新劃分選區(qū)的權(quán)力掌握在各個(gè)州手里。在美國(guó)的50個(gè)州中，重新劃分選區(qū)方案，或者說(shuō)劃分州議會(huì)和國(guó)會(huì)選區(qū)的地圖，大多都要由州議會(huì)制定。雖然有些州通過(guò)委員會(huì)來(lái)制定這項(xiàng)方案，但在大多數(shù)州，這份地圖必須獲得州議會(huì)和州長(zhǎng)批準(zhǔn)。

直到本次中期選舉前，共和黨一直都擁有巨大優(yōu)勢(shì)，因?yàn)樗刂频闹菡嗟枚?。共和黨人掌握著劃分選區(qū)的權(quán)力，2020年人口普查過(guò)后，他們就可以在重新劃分各州選區(qū)時(shí)擁有決定自身命運(yùn)的大權(quán)。而現(xiàn)在，除非2020年大選再次向右轉(zhuǎn)，否則民主黨將在至少三分之一的州把控著對(duì)選區(qū)的重新劃分。

主宰本周新聞的國(guó)會(huì)選舉情況很重要，這一點(diǎn)無(wú)可置疑。但各州選舉同樣要緊。在華盛頓，參議院的敗退沖淡了民主黨重掌眾議院的喜悅。但在各州首府，一股持續(xù)的藍(lán)色浪潮讓民主黨重新掌控了許多州議會(huì)和州長(zhǎng)寶座，盡管這可能悄然無(wú)聲，但將對(duì)美國(guó)政治產(chǎn)生非常大的影響。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

撒德·庫(kù)瑟爾是加州大學(xué)圣迭戈分校政治學(xué)系主任，他和別人共同編撰了《美國(guó)各州政治》一書(shū)。

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

Buried beneath the headlines of midterm elections that were all about blue gains in the House and the red hold over the Senate, a major story broke that has escaped much notice. In statehouses across the country, the 2018 elections brought an unequivocal shift to the left. There was no split decision in the states—Democrats gained ground, from Nevada to Wisconsin, from Kansas to Maine.

Democratic wins did not come on a massive scale, but the solid and consistent blue trend across the states will have an impact for years to come. Democrats took control of six chambers, seizing the senates of Colorado, Connecticut, New Hampshire, and Maine, and winning control of the Minnesota and New Hampshire houses. Republicans lost four chambers. Democrats also gained seven governorships, capturing Nevada, New Mexico, Kansas, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Maine, while losing one in Alaska.

This reversed a significant shift to the right in 2016. After Donald Trump’s historic win, Republicans controlled both the governor’s seat and the legislature in 25 states, while Democrats had unified control of only eight states. In the wake of the 2018 midterms, Democrats have come much closer to leveling the playing field, controlling 14 states to the Republicans Party’s 21.

For both parties, these results will reverberate for a long time. Even though state governments sometimes escape notice beneath the layers of American government, their decisions are vital to both the key policy issues of today and political battlegrounds of tomorrow.

According to exit polls, the single most important issue to voters was health care. The fight to pass and then to repeal Obamacare has dominated national politics for nearly a decade. But state governments have wielded power over how and where the health care law will be put into practice. When the Supreme Court upheld the Affordable Care Act’s basic constitutionality in 2012, it overturned the provision that required states to expand their Medicaid programs dramatically.

Blue states eagerly widened their health care safety nets, but many red states did not. Using their control of statehouses to voice their strong opposition to the national law, Republicans have prevented the adoption of Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion in 14 states. State politics matter when it comes to the most controversial issue in American politics right now.

State governments and local school boards also wield control over the perennially important issue of education. While federal authorities can incentivize and punish state education departments by dangling or withholding grants, schools are really run at the state and local level. Governors and legislators have decided which states have adopted the national Common Core standards, which are friendly to charter schools, and whether public school students can receive vouchers to attend private schools. On the issue that matters most for many families, what counts the most is who runs a statehouse, rather than who sits in Congress.

Lastly, but most critical to the contours of American politics over the next decade, states literally draw the battle lines of our roughest political fights. The power to redistrict resides in the states. A redistricting plan—the map of lines that defines districts in both state legislatures and for Congress—is a bill written by most of the 50 state legislatures. Although some states draw their plans through commissions, in most capitals, legislators and the governor must agree on a map.

Until these midterms, Republicans held a huge advantage by controlling so many more state governments. With the authority to draw district lines, they held significant power to determine their destiny when redistricting comes to the states after the 2020 census. Now, unless the 2020 elections bring another rightward shift, Democrats will control redistricting in at least a third of states.

The stakes of the congressional elections that have dominated the news this week are undeniably huge. But so too are the stakes in the states. In Washington, D.C., the Democratic joy over retaking the House was tempered by losses in the Senate. In state capitals across the country, a consistently blue wave put Democrats back in power in many of the chambers and governors’ seats that play such a crucial, if quiet, role in American politics.

Thad Kousser is the chair of the Department of Political Science at UC San Diego and the co-editor of Politics in the American States.