隨著一場(chǎng)交通“災(zāi)難”得以避免，紐約市的一小塊地段看來(lái)又成了黃金地段。不過(guò)誰(shuí)會(huì)從此事中受益，是房東、租客、買房者還是企業(yè)，卻是一個(gè)值得爭(zhēng)論的問(wèn)題。

2012年，往返于曼哈頓和布魯克林的L線地鐵在颶風(fēng)“桑迪”肆虐期間被洪水灌入，造成了線路設(shè)施受損。為了對(duì)受損路段進(jìn)行維修，紐約州政府原計(jì)劃于2019年4月27日起對(duì)L線地鐵實(shí)施停運(yùn)維修。不過(guò)紐約州州長(zhǎng)安德魯·庫(kù)默在上周四出人意料地宣布，L線地鐵原定的停運(yùn)整修計(jì)劃將暫不實(shí)施，L線地鐵未來(lái)15個(gè)月內(nèi)仍將繼續(xù)運(yùn)營(yíng)，至少是部分時(shí)間運(yùn)營(yíng)。

紐約房地產(chǎn)公司理想地產(chǎn)集團(tuán)（Ideal Properties Group）的常務(wù)董事亞歷山大·斯帕諾維奇告訴《財(cái)富》雜志：“L線地鐵停運(yùn)計(jì)劃被取消是一個(gè)喜人的消息，預(yù)計(jì)它將導(dǎo)致威廉斯堡地區(qū)的房屋租售行為有所增加。另外，有些人受地鐵停運(yùn)影響，本打算搬離這一區(qū)域一兩年，但現(xiàn)在他們可能會(huì)回心轉(zhuǎn)意，繼續(xù)住在這里?！?/p>

在過(guò)去十年多時(shí)間里，布魯克林的威廉斯堡社區(qū)和綠點(diǎn)社區(qū)的租金逐年大幅上漲。隨著這里的高層公寓一棟棟拔地而起，各大連鎖商超紛紛進(jìn)駐，很多年輕人當(dāng)上了房東，還有很多科技、金融行業(yè)的從業(yè)者在此購(gòu)房，這里也成了孵化城市“新中產(chǎn)”的溫床。

隨著L線地鐵停運(yùn)維修的消息傳出，當(dāng)?shù)仄髽I(yè)和居民對(duì)失去這條交通“生命線”深感憂慮。為了將房子租出去，不少房東也推出了種種激勵(lì)政策，有的提出可以免收一個(gè)月的房租，有的提供了網(wǎng)約車優(yōu)惠。還有些業(yè)主干脆想離開(kāi)這個(gè)社區(qū)。雖然L線地鐵取消停運(yùn)的消息令不少地鐵通勤族松了一口氣，但并不是所有人都對(duì)庫(kù)莫的聲明感到滿意，而L線地鐵也留下了不少仍未解決的問(wèn)題。

RIPCO房地產(chǎn)公司布魯克林辦事處的零售經(jīng)紀(jì)業(yè)務(wù)總經(jīng)理賈森·彭寧頓表示：“上周四的新聞肯定會(huì)提升上述所有業(yè)務(wù)類別的信心水平，因?yàn)樗麄冎?，顧客出行不便的?wèn)題將會(huì)得以緩解。”不過(guò)彭寧頓也指出，受夜間和周末施工的影響，L線地鐵的運(yùn)營(yíng)班次肯定會(huì)有很大變化。這對(duì)于那些比較依賴游客和城市其他區(qū)域居民的本地企業(yè)及餐館來(lái)說(shuō)也依然是個(gè)問(wèn)題。

霍斯德地產(chǎn)公司（Halstead）的經(jīng)紀(jì)人華納·劉易斯指出，在上周四的聲明發(fā)布之前，當(dāng)?shù)氐姆康禺a(chǎn)市場(chǎng)一直在下跌?！昂芏嚅_(kāi)發(fā)商把房子從市場(chǎng)上撤了下來(lái)，然后重新定一個(gè)更低的價(jià)格。房東們?cè)谧饨鹕献尣揭埠艽?，個(gè)人賣家也只有降價(jià)才能把房賣出去。”

威廉斯堡社區(qū)的居民、建筑設(shè)計(jì)公司梅斯伯格集團(tuán)（Meshberg Group）的創(chuàng)始人及負(fù)責(zé)人亞當(dāng)·梅斯伯格也認(rèn)為，當(dāng)?shù)胤康禺a(chǎn)市場(chǎng)最近日趨疲軟。但他認(rèn)為情況可能會(huì)很快就會(huì)好轉(zhuǎn)。

他表示：“有一個(gè)客戶今天打電話過(guò)來(lái)，說(shuō)他們打算以低于市場(chǎng)價(jià)的價(jià)格出租一套房子，租期兩年。不過(guò)就在簽訂合同之前的幾分鐘，他們聽(tīng)到了這個(gè)消息。然后他們就改了主意，不想再以低價(jià)出租了?！?/p>

斯帕諾維奇認(rèn)為，L線地鐵取消停運(yùn)，無(wú)論對(duì)房東和租客都是好事。最明顯的一點(diǎn)就是租客和買房者不用再擔(dān)心通勤受到嚴(yán)重干擾。而房東和賣房者也能像以前一樣正常交易了。

布魯克林的MNS房地產(chǎn)公司的CEO安德魯·巴洛克斯表示：“每個(gè)人都以為房主從中獲益最多，但其實(shí)這個(gè)消息對(duì)租房者和購(gòu)房者也帶來(lái)了重大利好。居民可以讓他們的孩子在城市里上學(xué)，自己也可以上班。當(dāng)然，房主也獲得了利益。這并不是非黑即白的。”

對(duì)于一些想搶低租金房的租客來(lái)說(shuō)，留給他們的機(jī)會(huì)窗口已經(jīng)很窄了。

斯帕諾維奇表示：“紐約的冬季氣溫總是會(huì)對(duì)房?jī)r(jià)產(chǎn)生影響——無(wú)論是對(duì)賣房?jī)r(jià)格還是租金，今年也不例外。下一步，價(jià)格很可能會(huì)向上調(diào)整。等到過(guò)幾個(gè)月天氣變暖了，它的刺激效應(yīng)可能就會(huì)有所減弱。”

劉易斯指出，L線地鐵取消停運(yùn)計(jì)劃的影響會(huì)立即在租房市場(chǎng)上表現(xiàn)出來(lái)?！案鞣N讓步會(huì)逐漸減少，市場(chǎng)上的潛在租客會(huì)增加。這也是威廉斯堡的房東們?cè)?019年最希望得到的一份大禮?！?/p>

這條至關(guān)重要的交通線也有助于提振周邊的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)，特別是北邊近在咫尺的長(zhǎng)島市，亞馬遜公司剛剛宣布計(jì)劃在那里建設(shè)一個(gè)新總部。另?yè)?jù)近日最新發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)，紐約皇后區(qū)公寓的搜索量和詢盤(pán)量幾乎立即出現(xiàn)了飆升。L線地鐵的繼續(xù)運(yùn)營(yíng)，意味著從威廉斯堡可以直達(dá)谷歌在曼哈頓西側(cè)的基地。而谷歌最近也打算在南邊不遠(yuǎn)處沿哈德遜河建一個(gè)新園區(qū)。

紐約長(zhǎng)島經(jīng)紀(jì)公司Modern Spaces的創(chuàng)始人及CEO埃里克·貝納姆表示，有些地段盼著L線地鐵停運(yùn)，就是為了將人流吸引到他們的社區(qū)和樓盤(pán)。現(xiàn)在這些地段自己也必須變得更有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力才行。

斯帕諾維奇認(rèn)為，未來(lái)亞馬遜新建的長(zhǎng)島總部的員工中，將有相當(dāng)一部分選擇住在綠點(diǎn)和威廉斯堡社區(qū)，以及曼哈頓的中城東區(qū)，和皇后區(qū)長(zhǎng)島市北部的阿斯托利亞。

“亞馬遜選擇長(zhǎng)島市作為總部所在地，這也是一種本地化的市場(chǎng)力量，很可能導(dǎo)致該地區(qū)租金和房產(chǎn)銷售價(jià)格的上漲。” 斯帕諾維奇說(shuō)。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：樸成奎

With a transit “apocalypse” avoided, a small area of real estate in New York City looks prime again. But who stands to benefit—whether it be landlords, renters, buyers, or businesses—is now a question up for debate in and beyond the five boroughs.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo made the surprise announcement on last Thursday the L train subway tunnel between Manhattan and Brooklyn will not be shutting down for 15 months—previously scheduled to start on April 27, 2019—as originally planned. The L train will continue to run throughout that period, at least sometimes. The closure had been in the works for years in order to repair damage incurred during Hurricane Sandy in 2012, when the subway tunnel was submerged by floodwaters.

“The news of L-pocalypse avoided is a welcome development, and is expected to result in an upswing of renting and buying activity in Williamsburg,” Aleksandra Scepanovic, managing director of New York real estate firm Ideal Properties Group, tells Fortune. “People who may have been considering moving out of the area for a year or two because of the shutdown are likely to reverse their thinking and stay put.”

Brooklyn’s Williamsburg and Greenpoint neighborhoods have steadily seen rents rise sharply over the last decade, but are also often derided as hotbeds of gentrification with an influx of luxury high-rises, mass market retailers, and a younger professional crowd of renters and buyers often working in tech and finance.

With the news of an official shutdown, local businesses and residents had been dreading a future without a vital transit link to the area, and many landlords were offering incentives, from a free month of rent to Uber credits, to keep tenants as some renters already prepared to leave the neighborhood altogether. While perhaps a relief to some current L train straphangers, not everyone was pleased with Cuomo’s announcement right away, and there is still no shortage of unanswered questions.

“Last Thursday’s news will definitely raise the confidence level of all the above business categories knowing that their customers will be much less inconvenienced. If they haven’t moved, residents looking to leave will reconsider,” says Jason Pennington, managing director of retail brokerage at RIPCO Real Estate’s Brooklyn office. But given that there will still be significant schedule changes with night and weekend construction work, Pennington warns the shutdown could still be an issue for local businesses and restaurants catering to tourists and outer borough residents.

Before last Thursday’s announcement, the local real estate market was down—and continuing to go down, according to Warner Lewis, an agent at Halstead, a real estate firm covering the tri-state area. “Many developers had pulled units off the market and were repricing them lower, landlords were giving very robust concessions, and individual sellers were having to discount prices to get deals done.”

Adam Meshberg, a resident of Williamsburg as well as founder and principal of architecture and design firm Meshberg Group, concurred that the market had been getting softer, but suggested things could turn around quickly.

“One client called today and shared they were about to rent one of their units for a two-year contract under market value to fill the space,” Meshberg said. “Minutes before signing the contract, they heard the announcement and are no longer renting it under value.”

Scepanovic thinks both landlords and tenants could stand to benefit from the news, the most obvious being tenants and buyers won’t have to worry about a significant disruption to their commutes. Landlords and sellers, of course, will be able to continue with business as usual.

“Everyone wants to hear that it’s the landlords who will benefit the most, but there is a tremendous benefit to the renters and buyers,” adds Andrew Barrocas, CEO of MNS Real Estate in Brooklyn. “Residents can get their kids to school in the city, get to work, etc. And of course, landlords will reap the benefit. It’s not black and white.”

For prospective tenants who might have been hoping to take advantage of what were expected to be lower rents, there might still be a small—very small—window of opportunity.

“Winter temperatures in New York City always have a cooling effect on property prices—both on sales and rental fronts, and this year is no exception,” Scepanovic says. “The pricing is likely to correct upward, and the incentives may start falling off in the warmer months ahead.”

For rentals, specifically, the difference will be felt immediately, Lewis says. “Concessions will pull back and there will be more potential tenants in the market,” he explained. “This is the biggest possible gift in 2019 that landlords in Williamsburg could have hoped for.”

The crucial transit link also helps with the real estate market for surrounding neighborhoods—perhaps most notably to the immediate north in Long Island City, where Amazon just announced it is planning to open a massive new headquarters. Within days (and even days before) the HQ2 reveal late last year, apartment listing searches and bids for condos in the Queens neighborhood surged immediately. Keeping the L train alive will also mean Williamsburg is directly linked to Google’s current base on the western side of Manhattan as the Internet giant plans another New York campus not too far south along the Hudson River.

Eric Benaim, CEO and founder of Long Island City-based brokerage firm Modern Spaces, says that other markets that were betting on the L train shutting down as a way to drive more traffic to their neighborhoods and buildings will have to be more competitive now.

Scepanovic suspects that a substantial portion of the incoming Amazon HQ staff working in Long Island City will likely settle in Greenpoint and Williamsburg as well as Manhattan’s Midtown East and Astoria, just to the north of Long Island City in Queens.

“The selection of LIC as the Amazon’s partial HQ destination is yet another localized market force, the expression of which is likely to result in the increase of rental and sales prices in the area,” Scepanovic says.