全球化已死？

半個(gè)多世紀(jì)以來，制造業(yè)創(chuàng)建了全球供應(yīng)鏈，在成本（工資）最低的地方采購商品，銷往需求最高的地方。這種趨勢促進(jìn)了全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，推動(dòng)許多發(fā)展中國家（尤其是中國）崛起，同時(shí)實(shí)現(xiàn)了史上最大規(guī)模的人口脫貧。（但也引發(fā)了發(fā)達(dá)國家的政治抵制。）

然而，這種趨勢在過去十年已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)逆轉(zhuǎn)。麥肯錫全球研究所（McKinsey Global Institute）今天早上發(fā)布的一項(xiàng)新研究——本刊“CEO日報(bào)”（CEO Daily）欄目得以先睹為快——表明，跨境貿(mào)易產(chǎn)品占全球產(chǎn)品總量的比率急劇下降，從2007年的28.1％跌至2017年的22.5％。部分原因是政治上對貿(mào)易的抵制，但也說明中國和其他發(fā)展中國家消費(fèi)需求的增長（他們購買本國商品的份額在增多）和國內(nèi)供應(yīng)鏈的改善。

但問題在于：雖然貨物貿(mào)易占產(chǎn)品總量的份額正在下降，但服務(wù)貿(mào)易卻在快速上升。根據(jù)國家統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，服務(wù)僅占各類貿(mào)易的23％。但麥肯錫的報(bào)告表明，這些數(shù)字剔除了服務(wù)貿(mào)易中非常重要的一些領(lǐng)域，如果包括在內(nèi)，服務(wù)貿(mào)易占比將達(dá)到一半。

“全球化并沒有消亡；不過是變了，”麥肯錫合伙人、該研究所的負(fù)責(zé)人蘇珊·隆德（Susan Lund）表示。

這將對全球經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生重要影響。其中包括：

——對外貿(mào)易將不再依靠低工資推動(dòng)增長。該報(bào)告稱，僅有不到兩成的貿(mào)易是基于勞動(dòng)力套利。

——知識型貿(mào)易正在快速發(fā)展。對研發(fā)、強(qiáng)勢品牌、知識產(chǎn)權(quán)等無形資本的投資在貿(mào)易中的占比翻了一番，從5.5％增加到13.1％。

這些趨勢對公共政策的影響十分明顯。對實(shí)物貿(mào)易的限制正在打響最后一戰(zhàn)。試圖限制知識產(chǎn)權(quán)和無形資產(chǎn)的貿(mào)易是白費(fèi)心機(jī)。下一輪全球化進(jìn)程中，擁有最優(yōu)秀人才而非最低工資的國家將占據(jù)上風(fēng)。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Agatha

Is globalization dead?

For more than half a century, manufacturers created global supply chains that sourced goods wherever costs (wages) were lowest and sold them wherever demand was greatest. The trend drove world growth, powered the rise of many developing countries (particularly China), and resulted in the largest alleviation of poverty in world history. (It also helped fuel a political backlash in developed countries.)

In the last decade, however, that trend has reversed. A new study out this morning from the McKinsey Global Institute—CEO Daily got an early look—finds the share of goods produced around the world that is traded across borders has fallen sharply, from 28.1% in 2007 to 22.5% in 2017. That may partly reflect the political backlash against trade. But it also reflects rising consumer demand in China and other developing countries (they are buying more of their own goods), as well as improved domestic supply chains in those countries.

But here’s the rub: While trade in goods is declining as a share of output, trade in services is soaring. National statistics only attribute about 23% of all trade to services. But the McKinsey report says those numbers exclude some very significant aspects of services trade which, if included, would make it half of all trade.

“Globalization isn’t dead; it has just changed,” says Susan Lund, a partner at McKinsey and leader of the institute.

That has some important implications for the global economy. Among them:

— Foreign trade is no longer being driven by the search for low wages. Less than 20% of trade is based on labor-cost arbitrage, the report says.

— Knowledge-based trade is soaring. Investment in intangible assets—R&D, strong brands, intellectual property—has doubled as a share of trade, from 5.5% to 13.1%.

The implications for public policy are clear. Restricting trade in physical goods is fighting the last war. And attempting to restrict trade in intellectual property and intangibles is a fool’s errand. In the next round of globalization, it will be countries with the best talent, not those with the lowest wages, that will have the upper hand.