一年一度的人口大遷移已基本結(jié)束。據(jù)政府官員稱，中國14億人口在2月5日農(nóng)歷新年前后出行的人數(shù)達(dá)到30億人次。這是物流界的噩夢(mèng)，中國的機(jī)場(chǎng)、火車站和高速公路都堵滿了。但是，對(duì)于中國在線旅游代理行業(yè)的領(lǐng)軍企業(yè)攜程旅行網(wǎng)來說，這也是賺得盆滿缽滿的幾天。

在線旅游代理商攜程網(wǎng)在納斯達(dá)克上市，市值200億美元，擁有中國在線旅游行業(yè)60%的份額，是全球第二大在線旅游代理商（OTA），成交金額（通過公司平臺(tái)銷售服務(wù)的總價(jià)值）僅次于Priceline Group。攜程總部位于上海，2016年收購機(jī)票比價(jià)網(wǎng)站天巡網(wǎng)（Sky Scanner），在美國以Trip.com運(yùn)營，該公司預(yù)計(jì)在春節(jié)期間為3.9億人次中國游客提供國內(nèi)旅游服務(wù)、700萬人次出境游服務(wù)。

攜程網(wǎng)表示，泰國、日本和印度尼西亞會(huì)是今年春節(jié)最受中國游客歡迎的海外游目的地。美國排名第7，與2017年持平。攜程的聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人及執(zhí)行主席梁建章于1月表示，他認(rèn)為正在進(jìn)行的中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)不會(huì)影響中國人的旅游計(jì)劃。

梁建章在硅谷軟件公司甲骨文（Oracle）工作了8年后，于1999年創(chuàng)建了旅游比價(jià)網(wǎng)站攜程網(wǎng)。紅杉資本中國基金（Sequoia Capital China）創(chuàng)始人兼現(xiàn)任執(zhí)行合伙人沈南鵬、攜程總裁范敏、董事總經(jīng)理季琦同為聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人。

公司最初的業(yè)務(wù)收入來自酒店預(yù)訂，在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破滅、投資者資本枯竭后，攜程網(wǎng)擴(kuò)展到了這一業(yè)務(wù)領(lǐng)域。兩年后，該公司新增了航班預(yù)訂服務(wù)，之后又推出了旅游套餐、商務(wù)旅行、公交車票、火車票和旅游物流業(yè)務(wù)。

攜程2003年在納斯達(dá)克上市以來，市值已經(jīng)增長至首次公開發(fā)售前估值的40倍，年收入從2004年的4030萬美元飆升至2017年的41億美元。

“中國人的購買力擺在那，”首席執(zhí)行官孫潔說，她在硅谷金融部門工作了12年后于2005年加入公司擔(dān)任首席財(cái)務(wù)官?！?017年，我們推出了22個(gè)高端旅游套餐，單價(jià)20萬美元，17秒就賣光了。”

根據(jù)麥肯錫咨詢公司（McKinsey & Company）的數(shù)據(jù)，2017年中國出境游旅客數(shù)達(dá)到1.31億人次，共消費(fèi)2500億美元。麥肯錫預(yù)計(jì)2020年將增長到1.6億人次和3500億美元。目前只有5%的中國公民持有護(hù)照，出境游還有巨大的增長空間，這也是攜程被列入《財(cái)富》雜志“未來50強(qiáng)”名單的原因之一，這些公司被認(rèn)為具有強(qiáng)勁的增長前景。

攜程的技術(shù)實(shí)力是其優(yōu)勢(shì)之一。孫潔表示，該公司大量投資ABC領(lǐng)域——人工智能（artificial intelligence，A）、大數(shù)據(jù)（big data，B）和云計(jì)算（cloud computing，C），利用公司的專有數(shù)據(jù)分析向客戶推送有針對(duì)性的廣告，幫助酒店等合作伙伴預(yù)測(cè)旺季日期。

2017年，攜程根據(jù)客戶的預(yù)訂歷史創(chuàng)建了一個(gè)信用評(píng)級(jí)系統(tǒng)，這種做法在中國尤其前衛(wèi)。孫潔在致股東的信中解釋道，信用評(píng)分較高的客戶將享有抵達(dá)后再付款等特權(quán)，服務(wù)商還可以通過該系統(tǒng)“更好地了解他們將服務(wù)的客戶類型”。

然而，中國最強(qiáng)大的科技巨頭阿里巴巴和騰訊也都投資了旅游市場(chǎng)。阿里巴巴于2014年成立的旅游部門飛豬旅行已經(jīng)搶走了攜程在機(jī)票銷售中的份額，根據(jù)分析公司Trust Data的數(shù)據(jù)，騰訊投資的美團(tuán)旅游在去年的酒店預(yù)訂量超過了攜程。

攜程的高管經(jīng)常否認(rèn)美團(tuán)或阿里巴巴對(duì)自身業(yè)務(wù)造成了威脅的說法，這或許也合理。中國的出境游市場(chǎng)仍然十分不飽和，因此有足夠的空間容納多個(gè)玩家。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Agatha

The largest annual human migration was finished. China’s 1.7 billion population made 3 billion trips around Chinese New Year on February 5, according to government officials. It’s a logistical nightmare, clogging China’s airports, train stations and highways with traffic. But, for China’s leading online travel agent Ctrip.com International, it’s also a giant pay day.

The $20 billion Nasdaq-listed travel agent occupies 60% of China’s online travel industry and is the world’s second-largest online travel agent (OTA) after Priceline Group in terms of gross merchandise value, which measures the total value of services sold through a company’s platform. The Shanghai-based Ctrip, which bought flight comparison site Sky Scanner in 2016 and operates in the U.S. as Trip.com, expects to service 390 million domestic and seven million outbound trips by Chinese tourists this Chinese New Year.

According to Ctrip, Thailand, Japan and Indonesia will be the most popular overseas destinations for China’s tourists this New Year. The U.S. ranks number seven on that list, the same place it held in 2017. Ctrip co-founder and executive chairman James Liang said in January that he doesn’t expect China’s ongoing trade war with the U.S. to affect Chinese travel plans.

Liang founded Ctrip as a travel comparison site in 1999 after working eight years at Silicon Valley software company Oracle. Neil Shen, now founder and managing partner at Sequoia Capital China, joined as Liang’s co-founder along with Ctrip president Min Fan and board director Qi Ji.

The company’s first revenues came from hotel bookings, into which Ctrip expanded after the dotcom bubble burst and investor capital dried up. Two years later the company added flight reservations to its portfolio of services, then package holidays, corporate travel, bus tickets, train tickets and travel logistics.

Since 2003, when the company listed on Nasdaq, its market cap has swollen to 40-times its pre-IPO value and annual revenues have surged from $40.3 million in 2004 to $4.1 billion in 2017.

“The buying power is there, in China,” says CEO Jane Sun, who joined the company as CFO in 2005 after spending 12 years working in Silicon Valley finance. “In 2017 we offered 22 high-end tour packages priced at $200,000 each. It only took us 17 seconds to sell them all.”

According to McKinsey & Company, Chinese tourists made 131 million trips overseas in 2017 and spent a total $250 billion. The consultancy expects those figures to grow to 160 million and $350 billion by 2020. With only 5% of Chinese citizens owning a passport, outbound travel has exceptional room for growth and is one of the reasons why Ctrip was included amongst Fortune’s list of “Future 50” companies with strong growth prospects.

Ctrip’s tech prowess is one of its strengths. Sun says the company invests heavily in ABC – artificial intelligence, big data and cloud computing – and uses its proprietary data analytics to do things like push targeted adverts towards customers and help business partners such as hotels predict peak periods.

In 2017 Ctrip created a credit rating system – ever more the vogue in China – based on customer’s booking history. In a letter to shareholders, Sun explained that customers with higher credit scores will enjoy perks, such as deferring payment until arrival, and the system also allows service providers to “get a better sense of what kind of customers they will serve.”

However China’s two most formidable tech titans, Alibaba Group and Tencent Holdings, are both invested in the travel market too. Alibaba’s travel unit Fliggy, launched in 2014, has chipped away at Ctrip’s share in flight sales and, according to analytics company Trust Data, Tencent-backed Meituan Travel surpassed Ctrip in hotel bookings by volume last year.

Ctrip’s executives have routinely dismissed the idea that Meituan or Alibaba poses a threat to their own business and maybe that’s fair. With China’s outbound travel market still so unsaturated, there’ll be room for more than one player.