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英國(guó)脫歐,這個(gè)國(guó)家居然成了最大贏家

英國(guó)脫歐,這個(gè)國(guó)家居然成了最大贏家

Richard Morgan 2019-03-03
英國(guó)脫歐麻煩不斷,卻讓這個(gè)國(guó)家成為了企業(yè)的新寵。

都柏林城堡1204年就成為愛(ài)爾蘭的權(quán)力中心,在其中一間遠(yuǎn)離塵囂的私人會(huì)議室里,由助手們陪同的愛(ài)爾蘭副總理西蒙·科文尼表示,愛(ài)爾蘭的經(jīng)濟(jì)地位毫無(wú)疑問(wèn),無(wú)論英國(guó)脫歐與否。他的語(yǔ)調(diào)帶著節(jié)制,和他使用的飽含激情的詞匯形成了明顯反差。科文尼說(shuō):“愛(ài)爾蘭經(jīng)濟(jì)比以往任何時(shí)候都更有持續(xù)性?!贝送?,他甚至表示:“我們?cè)敢獬蔀槭澜缟献铋_(kāi)放的經(jīng)濟(jì)?;蛟S僅次于新加坡?!?/p>

他會(huì)知道結(jié)果的。目前科文尼的職務(wù)是愛(ài)爾蘭副總理、外交部長(zhǎng)兼英國(guó)脫歐事務(wù)首席談判代表。他說(shuō)愛(ài)爾蘭處于“擴(kuò)張模式”,而且他本人正在監(jiān)督愛(ài)爾蘭駐外大使館和領(lǐng)事館的大規(guī)模修建工作,這正是英國(guó)脫歐讓國(guó)際社會(huì)意識(shí)到“過(guò)度依賴(lài)英國(guó)”后作出的反應(yīng)??莆哪徇€說(shuō):“我們推進(jìn)這些工作的速度也是愛(ài)爾蘭獨(dú)立以來(lái)未曾出現(xiàn)過(guò)的?!?/p>

Cloistered with his aides in a private meeting room of Dublin Castle, the capital’s seat of political power since 1204, Tánaiste Simon Coveney, with a measured tone that betrays the enthusiasm of his words, argues that there’s nothing precarious about Ireland’s economic position, Brexit or otherwise. “The Irish economy is now more sustainable than it’s ever been,” he says. More than that, even: “We like to see ourselves as the most open economy in the world. Maybe [second] after Singapore.”

He would know. Coveney—who is at once Ireland’s deputy prime minister, its minister of foreign affairs, and its chief negotiator in Brexit matters—says Ireland is in “expansion mode.” He is overseeing a massive buildup of Irish embassies and consulates that he calls a Brexit-aware response to the global community’s “overreliance on the U.K.,” adding: “We’re doing it at a pace that hasn’t happened since independence.”

愛(ài)爾蘭政府首腦利奧·瓦拉德卡是印度-愛(ài)爾蘭后裔,同性戀。在這個(gè)1993年將同性戀合法化的國(guó)家,瓦拉德卡代表著一種更為現(xiàn)實(shí)而且更有信心的形象。圖片來(lái)源:Simon Dawson — Bloomberg via Getty Images

目前的使領(lǐng)館工程包括愛(ài)爾蘭設(shè)在安曼、波哥大、基輔、馬尼拉、蒙羅維亞、拉巴特、圣地亞哥和惠靈頓的大使館,設(shè)在卡迪夫、法蘭克福、齋浦爾、洛杉磯、孟買(mǎi)、溫哥華的領(lǐng)事館以及東京的泛文化中心,名為愛(ài)爾蘭之家。2022年就是愛(ài)爾蘭獨(dú)立100周年,這里有一種宣示其獨(dú)立性的意味。

亞洲是西方經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的靈丹妙藥,而愛(ài)爾蘭對(duì)亞洲的“追求”并非沒(méi)有回報(bào)。去年11月,小米和香港電信運(yùn)營(yíng)商Three宣布小米將在都柏林開(kāi)店,隨即推出了一系列新產(chǎn)品。去年,同樣在都柏林設(shè)有辦事機(jī)構(gòu)的華為收購(gòu)了50個(gè)鎮(zhèn)的寬帶光纖,這是華為和沃達(dá)豐合作協(xié)議的一部分。去年6月,日本軟銀披露了作為全球原型在都柏林試運(yùn)行其“智慧城市”平臺(tái)的計(jì)劃。

科文尼對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“這些都和愛(ài)爾蘭新的信心有關(guān)。你可以看到愛(ài)爾蘭實(shí)際上是在循著自己的腳步投資?!碑?dāng)然是前進(jìn)的最佳足跡,但他的積極支持也帶來(lái)了問(wèn)題,那就是世界需要一個(gè)歐洲的新加坡嗎?甚至是想要一個(gè)嗎?

愛(ài)爾蘭政府官員不喜歡人們因?yàn)?2.5%的企業(yè)稅率而將愛(ài)爾蘭稱(chēng)為避稅天堂,而且往往會(huì)回應(yīng)說(shuō)匈牙利的稅率只有9%,是歐盟最低水平(英國(guó)目前稅率為19%,2020年將降至17%。美國(guó)獨(dú)立稅收政策非營(yíng)利組織Tax Foundation的數(shù)據(jù)表明,歐盟國(guó)家的平均企業(yè)稅率為21.68%)。值得稱(chēng)道的是,到愛(ài)爾蘭工作的人帶來(lái)的效益要超過(guò)開(kāi)曼群島的郵政信箱。但其整體作用是讓愛(ài)爾蘭變得更像歐洲的特拉華州,而不是新加坡。過(guò)多的公司總部讓這個(gè)問(wèn)題變了味道。

倫敦政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家斯瓦蒂·迪格拉認(rèn)為:“公司搬到都柏林并不會(huì)把都柏林變成倫敦。向巴黎、慕尼黑以及其他任何地方的分流都意味著沒(méi)有哪個(gè)城市能繼承倫敦曾經(jīng)擁有的綜合實(shí)力。”

“你也許會(huì)得到較大的一塊蛋糕,但蛋糕本身會(huì)變小。在這方面沒(méi)有贏家。倫敦正在滑坡,但不會(huì)再出現(xiàn)另一個(gè)倫敦?!?/p>

The push so far includes Irish embassies in Amman, Bogotá, Kiev, Manila, Monrovia, Rabat, Santiago, and Wellington, as well as consulates in Cardiff, Frankfurt, Jaipur, Los Angeles, Mumbai, Vancouver, and a pan-cultural hub in Tokyo called Ireland House. Buoyed by the imminent centennial of its nationhood, in 2022, there is a sense that Ireland is flexing its independence.

Irish courtship of Asia, that Western cure-all for economic development, has not gone unrequited. In November, Chinese electronics company Xiaomi partnered with Hong Kong telecom provider Three to launch a rash of new products following an announcement that Xiaomi would set up shop in Dublin. Last year Huawei, which also has Dublin offices, brought broadband optical fiber to 50 Irish towns as part of a contracted partnership with Vodafone. In June, Japan’s SoftBank revealed plans to pilot its “smart city” platform in Dublin as a global prototype.

“It’s all linked to a new confidence in Ireland,” Coveney tells Fortune. “You’re seeing Ireland essentially investing in a footprint.” The best foot forward, surely, yet his boosterism raises questions: Does the world need a European Singapore? Or even want one?

Irish government officials dislike when the country is called a tax haven for its 12.5% corporate tax rate and often respond by pointing to Hungary’s 9% rate, the lowest in the EU. (Britain’s is 19% and will drop to 17% in 2020. The average among EU countries is 21.68%, according to the Tax Foundation.) To Ireland’s credit, the workers coming to the country offer more heft than a post office box in the Cayman Islands. But the overall effect has made Ireland more like Europe’s Delaware than its Singapore. Too many headquarters spoil the broth.

“Moving companies to Dublin does not turn Dublin into London,” says Swati Dhingra, an economist at the London School of Economics. “The dispersal—to Paris, Munich, wherever—means that nobody will inherit the conglomerate force that London had.

You might get a bigger slice of pie, but the pie itself is getting smaller. There are no winners here. London is diminishing, but nowhere is becoming the next London.”

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