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英國(guó)脫歐,這個(gè)國(guó)家居然成了最大贏家

英國(guó)脫歐,這個(gè)國(guó)家居然成了最大贏家

Richard Morgan 2019-03-03
英國(guó)脫歐麻煩不斷,卻讓這個(gè)國(guó)家成為了企業(yè)的新寵。

一些英國(guó)人,或者具體來說,支持英國(guó)脫歐而且留任的英國(guó)議員并不樂于看到愛爾蘭在國(guó)際舞臺(tái)上的崛起以及愛爾蘭和英國(guó)之間的微妙權(quán)力轉(zhuǎn)移。英國(guó)保守黨的一位成員嘲弄“固執(zhí)的愛爾蘭政府”過于擔(dān)心邊界問題。該黨的另一位成員在去年12月建議英國(guó)政府通過經(jīng)濟(jì)損失,包括令人不安而且類似于19世紀(jì)大饑荒的食品短缺來脅迫愛爾蘭接受對(duì)英國(guó)更有利的脫歐方案,因而廣受譴責(zé)。當(dāng)月,一位未具名的英國(guó)議員還對(duì)BBC專欄作家表示:“愛爾蘭人真的應(yīng)該清楚自己的地位?!?/p>

在投票結(jié)束兩年后,脫歐決定依然備受爭(zhēng)議。但盡管英國(guó)有多種方案,大多數(shù)人都認(rèn)為有一點(diǎn)生死攸關(guān),那就是英國(guó)脫歐使得愛爾蘭重新統(tǒng)一的說法變得越發(fā)普遍,而蘇格蘭謀求獨(dú)立的行為也仍在攪動(dòng)局勢(shì)。

妮婭姆·布什內(nèi)爾曾任愛爾蘭政府初創(chuàng)公司專員,現(xiàn)在是非盈利咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)TechIreland負(fù)責(zé)人。該機(jī)構(gòu)位于都柏林國(guó)際化的坎貝爾街街角,周圍是巴西、中國(guó)和東歐雜貨店、合資韓國(guó)烤肉餐廳、菲律賓午餐店、馬拉西亞小餐館、摩洛哥咖啡店和壽司店。布什內(nèi)爾相信英國(guó)“一時(shí)頭腦發(fā)熱”會(huì)讓愛爾蘭受益。她一邊用勺子挖著鱷梨面包片、辣鷹嘴豆、甜菜根粉和口利左香腸做成的典型舊金山早午餐,一邊說:“英國(guó)要處理的問題不光是脫歐。它處在脫歐時(shí)代中。就是沒有這些麻煩事,他們的處境也不怎么樣。他們是歐洲的特朗普——瘋狂,而且是那種讓人不安、具有時(shí)代性的瘋狂。”

那些遷往都柏林、法蘭克福和巴黎的公司并非一夜之間就會(huì)消失的呼叫中心、血汗工廠或者工作毫無吸引力的單位。相反,它們擁有的是打造21世紀(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)力量的白領(lǐng)、綠領(lǐng)和金領(lǐng)工作。愛爾蘭看來準(zhǔn)備把它們?nèi)渴杖肽抑?。還不到5英尺3英寸(約1.6米)的布什內(nèi)爾說:“小就是美。它讓我們保持靈活性。我們的國(guó)家無法擴(kuò)大規(guī)模。但我們可以在國(guó)際上擴(kuò)大規(guī)模。我們不要廣度,而是要深度。這已經(jīng)提高了我們?cè)诋a(chǎn)業(yè)鏈上的位置。我們不再是呼叫中心。現(xiàn)在人們都在接我們的電話?!?/p>

如果這聽起來像是戰(zhàn)無不勝的千禧一代忘乎所以的樂觀態(tài)度,那是因?yàn)榍闆r確實(shí)如此。愛爾蘭人的平均年齡為35.9歲,是歐盟最年輕的國(guó)家,和巴西、中國(guó)、卡塔爾、新加坡以及泰國(guó)等蒸蒸日上的人口群體旗鼓相當(dāng)(整個(gè)歐盟的平均年齡是42.8歲,其中德國(guó)最高,為45.9歲)。曾經(jīng)在英國(guó)、德國(guó)和印度擔(dān)任大使的愛爾蘭駐美國(guó)大使丹尼爾·馬爾霍爾表示:“以前我們一直都有威望,但無論英國(guó)還是歐盟,他們總覺得我們占了別人的便宜。時(shí)代已經(jīng)變了。我們變成了愛爾蘭本身。我們終于有了自己的想法?!?/p>

The ascent of Ireland as a global player and the subtle shift in power between it and the U.K. isn’t going over well with some in Britain—namely, the Brexit supporters who remain in Parliament. One Conservative member derided “the obdurate Irish government” for being overly concerned with border issues. Another was widely condemned in December for suggesting that Downing Street use the threat of economic damage, including food shortages, to compel Ireland to agree to a more favorable deal for the U.K.—an uncomfortable echo of the Great Famine of the 19th century. “We simply cannot allow the Irish to treat us this way,” an unnamed member of Parliament reportedly told a BBC columnist that same month, adding: “The Irish really should know their place.”

The Brexit decision remains hotly contested more than two years after the original vote, but despite Britain’s mixed bag of opinions, most agree it’s an existential inflection: Talk of Brexit-abetted Irish reunification has gained traction, and Scotland’s own roiling independence movement continues.

Seated along the cosmopolitan corridor of Dublin’s Capel Street—amid Brazilian, Chinese, and Eastern European grocery stores; Korean barbecue joints; Filipino lunch spots; Malaysian greasy spoons; Moroccan cafés; and sushi bars—Niamh Bushnell, the Irish government’s onetime commissioner of startups who now heads up nonprofit consultancy TechIreland, believes Ireland is poised to benefit from Britain’s momentary mania. “The U.K. doesn’t just have Brexit on its plate,” she says as she digs into a downright San Franciscan brunch of avocado toast with spiced chickpea, beetroot powder, and chorizo. “It’s in the Age of Brexit. Even without this mess, they’d be in a sorry state. They are Europe’s Trump—crazy, but in an unnerving, zeitgeisty way.”

The businesses moving to Dublin, Frankfurt, and Paris are not fly-by-night call centers, sweatshops, or hubs of unattractive work. Rather, they are the white-collar, green-collar, and gold-collar jobs upon which the 21st century’s economic power is being built. Ireland seems prepared to grab them all. “Small is beautiful. It keeps us agile,” says Bushnell, herself not quite 5 feet 3 inches. “We can’t scale nationally. We can only scale internationally. Instead of going wide, we are going deep. That has sent us up the value chain. We’re not call centers anymore. People are taking our calls now.”

If it sounds like the giddy optimism of millennial invincibility, that’s because it is: With a median age of 35.9, Ireland has the youngest population in the EU, putting it on par with such booming populations as those of Brazil, China, Qatar, Singapore, and Thailand. (The EU-wide median is 42.8; Germany claims the highest median age at 45.9.) “We always had cachet but were seen as riding coattails, either of the U.K. or the EU,” says Daniel Mulhall, an Irish ambassador who has served in Britain, Germany, India, and is currently ambassador to the U.S. Times have changed. “We became our own country,” he says. “We have our own ideas at last.”

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